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Tesla – Lithium-ion storage is ready to power the grid

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla – Lithium-ion storage is ready to power the grid

#3
There seems to be some conflicting information in the article, I don't understand how these quotes line up:

"...prices for lithium-ion batteries have fallen fast — by almost half just since 2014." "But for the most part, according to a BNEF analysis, the costs of new projects would need to drop by half in order to be profitable on a wider scale in California, and that’s not likely to happen for another decade."

The prices for the batteries dropped by half in 2 years, but it will take a decade for them to drop by the same amount again? What am I missing here?

Also the chart seems to indicate the cost was $273/kWh to build a plant in 2016, but then they say "While Tesla declined to provide its pricing data, the similarly sized Altagas project was expected to cost at least $40 million, or $500 per kilowatt hour." I guess the costs unrelated to the battery cells themselves added another ~$230/kWh in costs?

Re: Tesla – Lithium-ion storage is ready to power the grid

#4
post #3

There seems to be some conflicting information in the article, I don't understand how these quotes line up: "...prices for lithium-ion batteries have fallen fast — by almost half just since 2014." "But for the most part, according to a BNEF analysis, the costs of new projects would need to drop by half in order to be profitable on a wider scale in California, and that’s not likely to happen for another decade." The p…

It says the cost of the project needs to drop by half not the cost of the batteries. It could be that the cost of batteries is only a small amount of the overall cost. That is what you see with solar, most of the cost comes from installation.

Re: Tesla – Lithium-ion storage is ready to power the grid

#5
post #3

There seems to be some conflicting information in the article, I don't understand how these quotes line up: "...prices for lithium-ion batteries have fallen fast — by almost half just since 2014." "But for the most part, according to a BNEF analysis, the costs of new projects would need to drop by half in order to be profitable on a wider scale in California, and that’s not likely to happen for another decade." The p…

It says the cost of the project needs to drop by half not the cost of the batteries. It could be that the cost of batteries is only a small amount of the overall cost. That is what you see with solar, most of the cost comes from installation.

the cost of the project needs to drop by half not the cost of the batteries

Manufacture larger self-contained units the size of a standard shipping container?

Re: Tesla – Lithium-ion storage is ready to power the grid

#6
post #3

There seems to be some conflicting information in the article, I don't understand how these quotes line up: "...prices for lithium-ion batteries have fallen fast — by almost half just since 2014." "But for the most part, according to a BNEF analysis, the costs of new projects would need to drop by half in order to be profitable on a wider scale in California, and that’s not likely to happen for another decade." The p…

If it's just 50% away from profitability with the ridiculously cheap cost of electricity in California and the US in general, it will do just fine for vast swaths of the developed world.

Not to mention that the edge of profitability probably isn't so much determined by the consumer price of electricity, but the sources that feed a countries grid. Lots of renewables with huge output swings (Germany) versus full nuclear (France).

Re: Tesla – Lithium-ion storage is ready to power the grid

#8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It says the cost of the project needs to drop by half not the cost of the batteries. It could be that the cost of batteries is only a small amount of the overall cost. That is what you see with solar, most of the cost comes from installation.

the cost of the project needs to drop by half not the cost of the batteries Manufacture larger self-contained units the size of a standard shipping container?

that would be awesome, but would be one heavy shipping container..

Re: Tesla – Lithium-ion storage is ready to power the grid

#9
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the cost of the project needs to drop by half not the cost of the batteries Manufacture larger self-contained units the size of a standard shipping container?

that would be awesome, but would be one heavy shipping container..

Well, given we ship around semi-trucks full (ok not completely full due to the exact weight you describe) of lead-acid car batteries for recycling, it wouldn't be unthinkable. Li-on, I believe, is roughly 200% lighter for the same battery.

IE: http://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lithium-ion-...

Not sure how that carries over to larger batteries as I've only really dealt with them for ATV type use.

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