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Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

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Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#321

Post by urazen »

fergie wrote: post #45

I'm going to stick my neck out here and say that this may not be an altogether bad thing. From the article: "The foreign work visas were originally established to help U.S. companies recruit from abroad when they couldn’t find qualified local workers. But in recent years, there have been allegations the programs have been abused to bring in cheaper workers from overseas to fill jobs that otherwise may go to Americans…

Banning H1B doesn't mean more local hiring.

The best scenario for U.S.: Hiring only locals

The worst scenario for U.S.: Offshore outsourcing

The base scenario for U.S.: Hiring H1Bs

If H1B is banned or becomes effectively useless, many companies will go for the worst scenario. Even now, big tech companies have been investing on their offshore dev centers. H1Bs pay taxes and spend their money here.

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#322

Post by flukus »

hocuspocus wrote: post #25
LAMike wrote: post #13

Any guess on how much will salaries for developers will rise after this move?

I don't think companies that outsource their IT to Infosys, Tata and the like, will suddenly be willing to pay more.

You could remove 75%+ of the developers there with no loss to productivity anyway.

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#323

Post by flukus »

urazen wrote: post #321
fergie wrote: post #45

I'm going to stick my neck out here and say that this may not be an altogether bad thing. From the article: "The foreign work visas were originally established to help U.S. companies recruit from abroad when they couldn’t find qualified local workers. But in recent years, there have been allegations the programs have been abused to bring in cheaper workers from overseas to fill jobs that otherwise may go to Americans…

Banning H1B doesn't mean more local hiring. The best scenario for U.S.: Hiring only locals The worst scenario for U.S.: Offshore outsourcing The base scenario for U.S.: Hiring H1Bs If H1B is banned or becomes effectively useless, many companies will go for the worst scenario. Even now, big tech companies have been investing on their offshore dev centers. H1Bs pay taxes and spend their money here.

A lot of companies that hire the worst H1B abusers already know what happens when they offshore the development. The only reason they still use these consultancies is because of the perception that development is onshore and higher quality.

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#324

Post by mattnewton »

smsm42 wrote: post #316
mattnewton wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. The process you described is called democracy. Unilateral executive action of the top cabinet alone outside times of declared war (and even sometimes within a war) would be called dictatorial or authoritarian. The debates, compromises checks are not just a tradition to be distrupted.

That's not how representative democracy works, in general. Direct democracy may work like that, but I don't see a way to run direct democracy on US federal scale, and even if there were a way, US is not one. In US system, there's debate, there's vote, representatives are elected and then they have power to act (within the bounds of law, of course, and within limitations like due process, procedures, judicial review,…

I'm talking about the checks like judicial review, which is not being enforced in dulles currently as CBT continues to bar lawyers from visiting with detainees in violation of court order. I am talking about the disregard for Geneva refugee convention the United States was committed to. I am talking about looping in people are supposed to enforce this and having a common sense discussion with them about what it means in practice. None of those are incompatible with the representative democracy we hold. Nothing there requires direct democracy. Those are the things that make this "unilateral"

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#326

Post by urazen »

flukus wrote: post #323
urazen wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Banning H1B doesn't mean more local hiring. The best scenario for U.S.: Hiring only locals The worst scenario for U.S.: Offshore outsourcing The base scenario for U.S.: Hiring H1Bs If H1B is banned or becomes effectively useless, many companies will go for the worst scenario. Even now, big tech companies have been investing on their offshore dev centers. H1Bs pay taxes and spend their money here.

A lot of companies that hire the worst H1B abusers already know what happens when they offshore the development. The only reason they still use these consultancies is because of the perception that development is onshore and higher quality.

As I mentioned above, big techs are already expanding their offshore dev centers. Going offshore is a proven option to them.

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#327

Post by eropple »

794CD01 wrote: post #301
serge2k wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Dictatorial and authoritarian are not necessarily negatives Yes they fucking are. > we knew that's how this candidate wanted to operate and voted for it anyway Most didn't vote for him.

Most didn't according to a metric that's not the metric that is actually used to select the president and thus candidates and parties don't try to optimize for. As for the other point, agree to disagree.

You don't get to "agree to disagree" about literal numbers. You are literally and inarguably wrong. There is a difference.

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#328

Post by flukus »

angry_octet wrote: post #154
MarkMc wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Many of those hired on H1B are doing roles for which they simply can't get local talent So it's not just a way to get regular software developers at a cheap price? OK let's raise the minimum salary requirement for H1B visas to $120k.

In France its quite straight forward to get a skilled worker visa -- just earn more than 3100 Euros per month (~1.5 * average earnings in France). Shouldn't be a problem for tech workers. (They are also introducing a 'tech startup visa' in the near future.)

1.5 * average earnings would still be below market for software developers.

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#329

Post by klipt »

smsm42 wrote: post #318
mattnewton wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But meanwhile 1. We look capricious and incompetent to international allies, especially Iraqis. 2. The federal judges decision to stay parts of the order is not being enforced in its entirety. CBP refused to allow lawyers to meet with those being detained, in Dulles and in LA, even with Members of Congress attempting to enforce it in Dulles. This confusion among the rank and file about what a federal court order mean…

The fact that CBP has very wide powers and very little supervision has been talked about for ages. Unfortunately, nothing is being done about it. Refusing to execute a court order should be grounds for immediate dismissal, and possibly following contempt of court proceedings, but I suspect CBP has a union which would fight that tooth and nail and probably win. > No longer can we claim to take the high ground against…

What of the Iraqis who helped the US in exchange for promises of asylum? Sending them back to Iraq very well may get them murdered and/or raped.

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#330

Post by eruditely »

We will simply see the truth of the affair in the reality of the supply contraction and the volatility in wages post-execution of the H!-B programme, then we will know for sure if the people paying us or the people are are either grossly misinformed or were outright lying to us depending on the events that take place, depending on the degree of volatility on the price of software we will get an idea for what the supply of workers was and how much they were suppressing wages or weren't and that will give us some insight into the meta-game as it is taking place to-day.

This is akin to Isaac Levi's "Mild Contractions" in formal epistemology where you contract beliefs/situations to see what happens to the phenomena to get accurate information, I think that is a correct statement regarding Mr. Levi.

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