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Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

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Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#101

Post by kalleboo »

moomin wrote: post #55

Disclosure: my wife used to be on a work-permit scheme similar to H1B. The problem with all of these schemes is they're tied to a particular job. You give up that job, your right to remain is toast. This makes it hard to move to competitors and artificially depresses wages. In turn, this artificially affects native workers in the same industry. I think the solution here is more capitalism, not more government. Anyone…

In comparison, the visa (technically, "residency permit") scheme in Japan (widely viewed as a xenophobic, anti-immigrant country) is tied to the person. You get sponsored in by an employer in a field, and then your residency is tied to you being employed in that field. You can instantly turn around and quit that job and find another one in the same field. Policy is you have 30 [or was it 60?90? something like that] days to find a new job or voluntarily forfeit your residency. You will only need to prove that though the next time you renew your residency permit.

They also make it very easy for skilled labour to immigrate. You just need a degree in your field and a sponsoring employer. There are no quotas, no need for the employer to prove they tried to find a local at above market rates, fees aren't onerous, etc.

The xenophobic view comes partly from how there aren't many skilled workers who want or can work in Japan (relatively low wages, Japanese language requirement) but mostly from their reluctance to allow unskilled labour in (which the US accepts via illegal immigration and Europe accepts via refugees)

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#103

Post by threeseed »

lgleason wrote: post #17
concinds wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole "major SV tech companies use H1B to employ underpaid slaves" accusation is bunk. Maybe H1B is abused by other companies, but the big Bay Area corps are giving perfectly fine salaries to their H1B staff, as others have shown on HN in the past. Like everything else Trump does, there is no purpose for corrective action, because the problem Trump sees does not exist. H1B is bad for workers' and immigrants' righ…

Outside of SV, in the rest of the country I have spoken with a number of people in IT recruiting who told me that a this has driven down wages. Especially when they opened the door for the L1 visas. Wanna know why so many SV firms are against Trump. Follow the money! The virtuous aspects (IE: humanitarian concerns) are a way to get the sheep to follow. They all have a lot of blood on their hands.

Many SV companies are against Trump because their employees are prevented from leaving and entering the country. And since this decision was not communicated to anyone or timed appropriately it is caused widespread panic.

Chaos is antithetical to a successful business.

SV companies were largely supportive of Trump (due to the chance of corporate tax cuts) up until this point.

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#104

Post by andyjm »

bckygldstn wrote: post #46

The actual document was leaked to Vox, and is here: https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7872567/P...

Thanks for this link. Reading the draft order reveals a lot - for example, Section 4 a) ii) of the order would kill the international entrepreneur parole rule before it even comes into effect.

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#105

Post by fnord123 »

jamesrcole wrote: post #26
ajeet_dhaliwal wrote: post #8

I don't live in the USA currently but I have worked there before on a visa and I think the current system does require some sort of an overhaul. The current way of doing things is great for some companies and for customers who want to save money on IT services but I believe it does undermine wages (for Americans and others) and being on a visa tied to a company just opens up foreign developers to abuse (not the horri…

> If the overhaul is even worse than what they have now then the rest of the world should stop moaning and treat this like an opportunity It's not only about what non-US people think about it. Whatever happens effects Americans, through the effects on the U.S. economy. It effects potential immigrants. And it effects the rest of the world through its effects on the global economy. I don't live in the US, I don't have…

affects.

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#106

Post by anjc »

hocuspocus wrote: post #57
anjc wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would it drive wages down?! It'd be the exact opposite, and is the reason that wages have been stagnant in STEM, and is the reason for the wage collusion scandal. Companies would have to increase their offers to attract talent from other companies. Or they would have to - as used to be the case everywhere - accept that talent is nurtured from within.

IT services aren't STEM. The wage collusion scandal happened at a time where yearly H-1B quotas were typically not met! (Edit: I'm wrong, they were met, but much more slowly than they are today, no lottery needed back then). Today there's roughly 4 times more applications than visas delivered through the lottery, and the wages in tech have never been so high. If you get screwed by your employer within the framework o…

Would that not demonstrate the point then? You're saying wages aren't stagnant anymore, occurring at a time when the demand for workers has finally outstripped supply because not enough visas are issued. So don't blame it on immigration now, fine. But if issuances of visas increase then you're back in the Displacement of indigenous workers is also a major issue.

By the way, I wasn't trying to "blame it on immigration", my ire is solely directed at corporate lobbying for public policy, given that their sole motivation is an increase of private profits regardless of the socioeconomic side-effects. It should not be allowed.

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#107

Post by itcmcgrath »

daemin wrote: post #31
jpatokal wrote: post #20

Looks like this is not just targeting H-1B, but basically all work and business visas for the US: > The draft of Trump’s executive order covers an alphabet soup of visa programs, including H-1B, L-1, E-2 and B1. L-1 is intracompany transfer, E-2 is investor, and B-1 is the super common standard "I'm going to a meeting" business visa needed by everybody not in the visa waiver program.

Would that be including the E-3 for Australians as well?

It doesn't explicitly call out the E-3 in the leaked document, however IANAL and couldn't tell if any of the clauses implicitly affect it. [I'm on an E-3]

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#108

Post by sheepmullet »

onion2k wrote: post #23
LAMike wrote: post #13

Any guess on how much will salaries for developers will rise after this move?

If a company can't recruit an immigrant worker on a visa they'll try recruit one of the currently unemployed local developers on the exact same package the immigrant would have been on. That has no impact on wages. If the job required a unique talent that would only have been possible to fill with an exceptionally talented immigrant worker then the job won't be filled, and the company will be consequently less compet…

> If the job required a unique talent that would only have been possible to fill with an exceptionally talented immigrant worker then the job won't be filled,

Actually wage floors or setting up a bid/auction based system makes it more likely the exceptionally talented worker can get a visa.

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#109

Post by DarkKomunalec »

icebraining wrote: post #91
DarkKomunalec wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Jim Crow laws were a government favoring some of its citizens over other citizens, whereas these laws favor citizens over foreigners. In my opinion, it is a country's duty to place its own people first, but in the end it's up to the electorate.

This is favoring some of its citizens (certain classes of workers) over other citizens (buyers in general, workers affected by reciprocal changes by other countries, etc).

Those are secondary effects, and it is very much debatable who they favour. I would argue reducing the labour pool gives workers a stronger bargaining position, and thus better wages, reducing the rising income inequality.

Re: Trump’s Next Move on Immigration to Hit Closer to Home for Tech

#110

Post by andyjm »

daemin wrote: post #31
jpatokal wrote: post #20

Looks like this is not just targeting H-1B, but basically all work and business visas for the US: > The draft of Trump’s executive order covers an alphabet soup of visa programs, including H-1B, L-1, E-2 and B1. L-1 is intracompany transfer, E-2 is investor, and B-1 is the super common standard "I'm going to a meeting" business visa needed by everybody not in the visa waiver program.

Would that be including the E-3 for Australians as well?

The draft order is here: https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7872567/P...

It doesn't mention the E-3 specifically, but the E-3 could come under review under the broader non-immigrant visa review provisions such as section 4d)i)A). The J-1 is specifically mentioned, which would affect Australian students on working holidays. Also, this order, if signed, would stop the international entrepreneur parole rule which would close another entry pathway.

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