Live data from Hacker News

Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Results

abc.xyz

71–80 of 105 posts

Re: Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Results

#71
post #39
post #7

Editorializing: Paid clicks on Google properties +43% - "yaaay we're driving more paid search!" Cost-per-click on Google properties -16% - "ouch our advertisers are seeing less value on these add'l clicks!" To me the second part of this is going to be most interesting to watch - if the clicks they are onboarding are lower quality, this is going to be a net negative.

It doesn't work like that. Lower CPC does not mean lower value. It just means Google pushing into new eco-systems where CPCs are different from desktop search (e.g. mobile, YT, new publishers/partners) and it may take some time to reach equilibrium among the various actors depending on the ROI of the medium for the respective actors.

Precisely that. Change in Google's CPCs is a great example of Simpson's Paradox. CPCs on every property separately are growing, but aggregate is declining due to much faster growth in areas where CPCs started low

Re: Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Results

#72
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can it be a net negative? Net change in value = 1.43 * 0.84 = +20%

I think his point was that if CPC decreases monotonically forever, then eventually revenue will have to suffer regardless of volume growth. As others have mentioned, this doesn't take into account the mix of new ecosystems, though it's noteworthy that Google doesn't break down CPC by segment so we could see trends for desktop/mobile/YouTube/etc/

But if you look at trend on each individual property separately, CPCs are not declining anywhere. It's just effect of Simpson's Paradox on total number

Re: Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Results

#73
post #63

Are we not going to talk about the fact that they are on abc.xyz? I think it's hilarious.

It's fun to have your own extension, isn't it? then you can host http://hooli.xyz as well, which is good fun too (It's the parody website of the equivalent of Google in the TV show "Silicon Valley", which in itself is a good amount of self-irony).

It doesn't look like Google owns .xyz, though. The hooli site says Copyright HBO on the bottom.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/10/googles-abcxyz-just-put-this-...

Re: Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Results

#75
post #65
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They did increase headcount by more than 10k (from ~62k to ~72k). Headcount tends to produce more revenue eventually, but there's a lag. Staffing up by that much indicates that they're predicting significant growth.

(I'm an employee, with clear biases) Precisely this. Large scale infrastructure growth also costs quite a bit, especially when you pay for your own network and other works in progress https://cloud.google.com/about/locations/

No, that doesn't explain it. Some cost has to be going up by much more than 22%. Headcount only went up 16% - ie. from 62k to 72k.

Re: Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Results

#76
post #70
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess you missed the news: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2016/10/googl...

I didn't miss it. But it doesn't provide any financial info. And quotes like "Larry Page got tired of it" which were floating around the time that article came out, weren't really helpful. What I want to understand, is Google Fiber profitable or not? Just being "tired" because it grows slower than they expected, isn't a good reason to gut it.

> What I want to understand, is Google Fiber profitable or not? Just being "tired" because it grows slower than they expected, isn't a good reason to gut it.

Why is it not a good reason? Even if Google Fiber is profitable, it can still be a bad idea after you consider opportunity cost.

Re: Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Results

#77
post #76
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't miss it. But it doesn't provide any financial info. And quotes like "Larry Page got tired of it" which were floating around the time that article came out, weren't really helpful. What I want to understand, is Google Fiber profitable or not? Just being "tired" because it grows slower than they expected, isn't a good reason to gut it.

> What I want to understand, is Google Fiber profitable or not? Just being "tired" because it grows slower than they expected, isn't a good reason to gut it. Why is it not a good reason? Even if Google Fiber is profitable, it can still be a bad idea after you consider opportunity cost.

Because it shows they they didn't really mean it. If it's profitable, and they really wanted to disrupt the stale ISP market, they should have persisted. Otherwise they just showed that they aren't any better than incumbents.

Re: Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Results

#79
post #17

Revenue is up 22% but EPS is up only 7%. I would normally expect Google's EPS growth to be higher than revenue growth. Where are they spending all that extra income?

Taxes.

Quite right - thanks. If Alphabet had paid the same tax rate as the previous year then net income for the quarter would have been $6.49 billion, an increase of 32%.

Re: Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Results

#80
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On electricity to train all those deep neural networks.

Their DeepMind AI has actually decreased their energy consumption at their data centers. http://www.techrepublic.com/article/google-uses-deepmind-ai-...

But they could still be spending more aggregate money on hardware for their deep learning hardware than previously.
Post reply on HN