Dow Hits 20000 for First Time • Hacker News Board

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#121

Post by wtvanhest » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 5:43 PM UTC

bamdadd wrote: post #58

Listen to this episode of Planet money in 2013: Despite all the celebration, the Dow Jones industrial average has not hit record highs recently. If you adjust for inflation, the highs just aren't as high as they seem. And even if it does hit a real, inflation-adjusted high in the next few weeks, it won't mean much. The Dow is a seriously flawed stock index, and it's certainly not a good way to measure what's going on…

Yes, the dow is a flawed index.

That said, the S&P 500 & Russell 1000 are also at all time highs.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP%3A.INX&ei=6-KIWNi7K...

https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXRUSSELL%3ARUI&ei=8eKIW...

None of these data points mean anything on their own. People that look at a chart a conclude anything at all are not doing enough analysis.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#122

Post by crisnoble » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 5:43 PM UTC

crusso wrote: post #107

crisnoble wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What decisions has he made that are pro worker? I have heard that he has pushed to restart pipeline construction (pro business), freeze fedral hiring (anti worker), and kill ACA (anti worker, pro business).

The pipeline will create jobs and decrease fuel costs (pro business and worker). Freezing federal hiring will decrease the tax and regulatory load shouldered by everyone (pro business and worker). The ACA was shown to have been sold to the workers based upon lies regarding costs and access to their doctors. It's imploding under its own weight. Further, if the ACA benefits anyone, it benefits people who don't work but…

Freezing federal hiring literally will cost jobs, so is in no way pro worker. Employees of the government are workers too. The ACA benefits my wife who was able to quit her job to start a business without worrying about being denied healthcare for her pre-existing condition. The ACA benefits all workers in businesses who now are required to offer healthcare plans which meet a minimum standard. Workers will not benefit once businesses can go back to deciding that offering a group health insurance plan is an optional benefit.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#123

Post by crisnoble » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 5:50 PM UTC

crusso wrote: post #107

crisnoble wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What decisions has he made that are pro worker? I have heard that he has pushed to restart pipeline construction (pro business), freeze fedral hiring (anti worker), and kill ACA (anti worker, pro business).

The pipeline will create jobs and decrease fuel costs (pro business and worker). Freezing federal hiring will decrease the tax and regulatory load shouldered by everyone (pro business and worker). The ACA was shown to have been sold to the workers based upon lies regarding costs and access to their doctors. It's imploding under its own weight. Further, if the ACA benefits anyone, it benefits people who don't work but…

I agree that the pipeline will decrease fuel costs, and provide temporary construction jobs, however the net will be that the oil businesses will increase their profits and need fewer workers to transport the oil to market. Until workers can share equally in the profits of a business, I think it is dishonest to equate removing regulatory "burden" as pro business. Trickle down economics effects simply do not happen.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#124

Post by crisnoble » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 5:51 PM UTC

rconti wrote: post #120

crisnoble wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What decisions has he made that are pro worker? I have heard that he has pushed to restart pipeline construction (pro business), freeze fedral hiring (anti worker), and kill ACA (anti worker, pro business).

All of the pro-manufacturing-in-the-US, anti-import stuff.

I have yet to hear about any movement on those campaign talking points.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#125

Post by jakeogh » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 5:52 PM UTC

jackmott wrote: post #66

DrPhish wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without trying to be snarky, this sounds like a post-hoc rationalization. How do you differentiate between an irrational market and a bad prediction? I'm honestly at a loss

the prediction is still bad. if the prediction can't predict that the market is irrational.

nonsense. The people making the predictions were just wrong.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#126

Post by rdtsc » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 5:52 PM UTC

nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

> Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately?

It was rather amusing yes. I stayed up late during the election night watching NBC (it is my new comedy channel, alongside Fox and friends).

So after showing a blue map for months reporters were in disbelief and shock, almost in tears. That didn't last long. Because around midnight or so the mood lifted. It looked like after-hours trading and overseas markets were headed down. So just like that the sadness turned to optimism and they printed out a few graphs (because as we all know if it is printed on paper it becomes official) and were telling people how they were right, they predicted a massive crash. There were insinuation of people losing all their retirement money. Etc, etc.

The amusing (or tragic, of course) part is after failing to predict the outcome of the election, they turned right around and with the same confidence were talking about a total economic disaster.

Of course market shot up even higher next day than before.

It is interesting that they would rather want a total crash of the market justify their prediction of Trump.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#127

Post by vkou » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 5:52 PM UTC

potatosoup wrote: post #108

nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #18

Trump for all his craziness is vehemently pro business. I know the whole tech crowd wants him to crash and burn but the stock market rising is no surprise to me. Whether it's worth the damage done to the poor and the environment is yet to be seen.

> Whether it's worth the damage done to the poor Like what? If anything, more jobs instead of more and more social programs would do a lot to actually get people to a decent livelihood...

America today manufactures far more goods then the America of 1970 did. Yet, American manufacturing is dead as a source of jobs.

Even if the factories come back, the jobs won't.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#128

Post by jakeogh » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 5:55 PM UTC

crisnoble wrote: post #122

crusso wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The pipeline will create jobs and decrease fuel costs (pro business and worker). Freezing federal hiring will decrease the tax and regulatory load shouldered by everyone (pro business and worker). The ACA was shown to have been sold to the workers based upon lies regarding costs and access to their doctors. It's imploding under its own weight. Further, if the ACA benefits anyone, it benefits people who don't work but…

Freezing federal hiring literally will cost jobs, so is in no way pro worker. Employees of the government are workers too. The ACA benefits my wife who was able to quit her job to start a business without worrying about being denied healthcare for her pre-existing condition. The ACA benefits all workers in businesses who now are required to offer healthcare plans which meet a minimum standard. Workers will not benefi…

"Freezing federal hiring literally will cost jobs"

Jobs in government, not in private industry. Would you rather we all go on the gov payroll?

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#129

Post by rdtsc » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 5:59 PM UTC

xigency wrote: post #71

I understand that people believe Trump is good for business. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the rich. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the blue-collar worker. But I don't understand how Trump could be a good influence, in the long term, on business and the stock market, when looking at his positions and policy changes. Why Trump isn't good for poor working class…

> All in all, I'd like to hear what others think and why this sort of thought isn't widely circulated.

Except a lot of things I've seen predicted about Trump so far (for one a total market crash) haven't come true. I see that maybe it takes longer... But presumably investors can also go through the same analysis you are and we should see a failing trend already. I've heard of a complete market collapse, a disaster, people losing their retirements (heard it on NBC right on the election night).

I think a lot of what the market does is unpredictable and attributing this to Trump or other political moves is probably a good way to lose money. Well at least I am not going to and buy gold and bitcoin or reshuffle my investments just because Trump is here.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#130

Post by crisnoble » Wed, Jan 25, 2017, 6:05 PM UTC

jakeogh wrote: post #128

crisnoble wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Freezing federal hiring literally will cost jobs, so is in no way pro worker. Employees of the government are workers too. The ACA benefits my wife who was able to quit her job to start a business without worrying about being denied healthcare for her pre-existing condition. The ACA benefits all workers in businesses who now are required to offer healthcare plans which meet a minimum standard. Workers will not benefi…

"Freezing federal hiring literally will cost jobs" Jobs in government, not in private industry. Would you rather we all go on the gov payroll?

All I was trying to say that the current round of executive actions are being taken for businesses and without regards to effects on workers, but you put it more succinctly.