Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

blogs.wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 214 posts

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#81

Post by crusso »

samfisher83 wrote: post #61
nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

We won't know what Trumps policies do until 6 months to year from now.

Even then, some policies take years to show an impact - often with amplification or diminution based upon other events that occur long after a President is gone.

Look at how long it took for the housing market bubble to grow before bursting - 15 to 30 years, depending upon which policies you view as being contributing factors.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#82

Post by kgwgk »

celticninja wrote: post #43
notpc wrote: post #23

This is driven by expectations of Trump's deregulatory agenda. He says he's going to cut 75% of regulations. I can't believe this is happening. America is back people.

Depends which 75% of regulations he cuts. If he cuts EPA regulations and there is more pollution as a result of the increase in manufacturing this could result in more deaths in the long run. How about safety regulations get cut so manufacturing gets cheaper but more workers die in manufacturing plants, is that ok?

He will remove only the bad, useless ones. See A theory of regulation in https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-24/metrics-f...

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#83

Post by bluedevil2k »

thebiglebrewski wrote: post #51

If you had a bunch of money to put in the stock market, would you: - Put 1/3 of it in now and the other 2/3 in when the next crash hits - Wait until it all goes to shit and put it all in then, keeping it in a high-yield savings account until then (they make about as much as CDs these days) Would love to hear opinions!

You have no idea that if "the crash" hits there won't be another one a week later. Timing the market is a fools game. Long term, low cost, investing is the only way to match the market

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#84

Post by 0003 »

jcfrei wrote: post #19
nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

Brexit is a bad example because the predictions were accurate. If you are a foreign investor (your main currency being something other than GBP) and invested in the FTSE then the loss on your GBP was higher than your profit on the index. Slightly different story for UK based investors: While you made a profit on your FTSE ETF, those gains will to some extent be offset by a rise in inflation. Stocks are in general a g…

To say nothing of the non-UK businesses who sold goods/services for GBP.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#85

Post by 1337biz »

jcfrei wrote: post #19
nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

Brexit is a bad example because the predictions were accurate. If you are a foreign investor (your main currency being something other than GBP) and invested in the FTSE then the loss on your GBP was higher than your profit on the index. Slightly different story for UK based investors: While you made a profit on your FTSE ETF, those gains will to some extent be offset by a rise in inflation. Stocks are in general a g…

They were not. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United...

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#86

Post by crusso »

tomelders wrote: post #14
nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

This is sort of the same sentiment that people have towards things like Bird Flu. It didn't happen, so the experts were wrong, and it was all a load of hot air. But in actual fact a lot of people behind the scenes worked very hard to make sure it didn't become a problem.

I agree that there was a bird flu effect that you describe. Likewise, I always point people at Y2K as being a case in point where a lot of hype created the work that deflated the danger - but lay people could only see the hype.

That said, who worked to make sure that the market didn't crash after Trump got in office?

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#87

Post by xenadu02 »

nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

We love to overestimate the short term impact and underestimate the long term impact of events.

Brexit probably will have large negative effects on the UK's economy... but it will take a long time to figure that out.

Some of Trump's policies are also likely to do long-term damage, but not in the short term.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#89

Post by debt »

badloginagain wrote: post #76
nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

It takes a long time for economies to correct to a President's actions- on the order of years. It's better to judge a President's effect on the economy at the end of their tenure than at the beginning. It's also been shown that the President has less affect on the economy than people's perception would have them to believe.

If that last part is true then we're in for a correction.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#90

Post by scott_s »

nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

Brexit hasn't happened yet. The vote happened, but the U.K. has not yet left the E.U.
Post reply on HN