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Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

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Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#111

Post by icebraining »

forgetsusername wrote: post #86
ryanmarsh wrote: post #52

Where my Houstonians at? > "Rigs have gotten so much more efficient that the shale industry can use about half as many as it did at the height of the boom in 2014 to suck the same amount of oil out of the ground." Drilling rigs don't suck oil out of the ground, they drill a hole... that's why they call them drilling rigs not sucking rigs. Also, we don't call it sucking, rather "production", and that's handled by othe…

> LOLOLOL yah, trust me that Fluor, Parsons, Jacobs and all the other oil and gas engineering firms would love this and have been trying to build or integrate things like this for a long time. This is the same site that, for the most part, thinks Tesla beating out Ford/GM/Toyota/Honda/Nissan/Hyundai/Fiat/Google/Apple is a done deal.

Be careful with your sampling biases. Those of us who are sceptical but don't have a strong opinion are much more likely to say quiet.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#112

Post by lacampbell »

edblarney wrote: post #7
cloudwizard wrote: post #3

Those are very high paying jobs. It is very unlikely that the displaced workers will make anywhere close to that.

As the price of oil rises, it makes more sense for extraction in 'hard to get' places, which requires more technology, more jobs. As long as Oil is above $60/barrel, the the Alberta Oil Sands become exploitable, requiring massive, massive jobs. And very high paying. Unskilled labour is $80K. Skilled labour well above $100K - and tons of 'vacation' - usually 2 weeks in, 1 week out type thing. People fly in from all ov…

A pang of regret for choosing to get into software instead of a skilled trade. I'd love 3 weeks in, 1 week out.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#113

Post by semi-extrinsic »

leereeves wrote: post #77
fizixer wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The limit to automation in this industry and others is, quite frankly, how bad these companies are at making software. Your statement contradicts the rest of your paragraph (that the article is naive and far fetched). Because if this is really true, then it's only a matter of assembling a good software team, with one or two domain experts (who know the domain and are good s/w engineers), pair it up with the team of…

Automation as defined by that comment is a really low bar. It probably is possible. > That means an engineer can design an oil well at his desk. With the press of a button, an automated system would identify the equipment needed from a supplier, create a 3D model and send instructions for building it out into the field, Hashmi says. “That is automation.” I'd be very surprised if that doesn't already exist: printing a…

> printing a 3D model, submitting an order for the parts, and sending the documentation to the field.

Hahaha. No, let me talk you through it (assuming we are talking new technology, as opposed to a small refinement of existing stuff):

Engineer sits at his desk/wherever and has an idea for some equipment. We're at TRL 0 (following API 17N).

Engineer spends some time demonstrating and documenting how it's likely that this solution will work, possibly involving CFD and/or FEM work. We're at TRL 1.

Engineer gets a simple scale model built, and the scale model is laboratory tested to prove that the concept is likely to work. We're at TRL 2.

Engineer gets a (downscaled and/or simplified) prototype built and tested over a limited range of operating conditions. We're at TRL 3.

Engineer (but really, now we're talking the company) gets a first full scale version built, and this is tested at realistic operating conditions. TRL 4.

The full scale version is integrated with the actual system which it will be running in. TRL 5. This is basically "first deployment", and you've probably spent a few hundred thousand dollars at this point, if not much more.

Your first deployment case has run for an extended period of time under a range of real conditions. TRL 6. The solution is now proven, and can be promoted to other facilities that don't want to be the first adopter.

Your technology has run for a significant amount of time at several installations under a wide range of conditions. The technology is now proven. TRL 7.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#114

Post by maverick_iceman »

Alex_Butters wrote: post #48
ancarda wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>those jobs are never coming back Does it make anyone else sad to hear this? I see posts about robots/AI/etc automating away jobs and I try to be happy about that (who wouldn't want to never have to work again?) but I guess I'm saddened by some perceived loss of interesting opportunities. If I wanted to get my hands dirty or get away from the world for a bit, before robots I could work on an oil rig for a bit. Now, t…

I have tons of lab work you can do for me if you want to get your hands dirty, your pants wet, and your skin dyed for weeks. Desk job versus hands on both have pros and cons. Luckily I'm half/half each so it makes both good and both bad. There is plenty of science and engineering jobs tat let you do both.

Yep, I know a lot of researchers would be over the moon if they can have qualified unpaid labour.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#115

Post by ArkyBeagle »

ryanmarsh wrote: post #52

Where my Houstonians at? > "Rigs have gotten so much more efficient that the shale industry can use about half as many as it did at the height of the boom in 2014 to suck the same amount of oil out of the ground." Drilling rigs don't suck oil out of the ground, they drill a hole... that's why they call them drilling rigs not sucking rigs. Also, we don't call it sucking, rather "production", and that's handled by othe…

"...frankly, how bad these companies are at making software."

Yep. And hardware, and knitting together the boxes, and power, configuration management, and networking and...

If you can't do it with a pipe wrench, why it ain't worth doing :)

The problem with software there isn't the software people. It's the requirements gathering. I don't expect it can actually be resolved. You should see what passes for MRP around Houston.

I believe I first heard about the Iron Roughneck in the '80s, just in idle chatter.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#117

Post by bluGill »

cestith wrote: post #56
edblarney wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the price of oil rises, it makes more sense for extraction in 'hard to get' places, which requires more technology, more jobs. As long as Oil is above $60/barrel, the the Alberta Oil Sands become exploitable, requiring massive, massive jobs. And very high paying. Unskilled labour is $80K. Skilled labour well above $100K - and tons of 'vacation' - usually 2 weeks in, 1 week out type thing. People fly in from all ov…

The math isn't the same on the actual rigs, though. The article says half as many rigs with a quarter as many people per rig to get the same amount of oil. So yeah, if we get to $60 or the heady days (I live in Houston) of $110 a barrel it'll add jobs again. It won't add jobs the way it used to. About 7/8 of the people who would've received calls in the next upswing won't if the numbers in the article hold.

Not exactly - if oil gets that high there will be as many jobs - they will create even more wells though. What this really means is that as oil approaches $60/barrel the same number of people can drill more wells. In turn we are less likely to get over $60/barrel in the first place: as we get close more wells will be drilled which will drive the price back down.

Until peak oil of course - at some point we run out of okay places to drill wells. (the great places ran out before 1910, we have been moving down since) Once the geologists run out of useful places to drill something else needs to be in place to replace oil.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#118

Post by ArkyBeagle »

fizixer wrote: post #75
ryanmarsh wrote: post #52

Where my Houstonians at? > "Rigs have gotten so much more efficient that the shale industry can use about half as many as it did at the height of the boom in 2014 to suck the same amount of oil out of the ground." Drilling rigs don't suck oil out of the ground, they drill a hole... that's why they call them drilling rigs not sucking rigs. Also, we don't call it sucking, rather "production", and that's handled by othe…

> The limit to automation in this industry and others is, quite frankly, how bad these companies are at making software. Your statement contradicts the rest of your paragraph (that the article is naive and far fetched). Because if this is really true, then it's only a matter of assembling a good software team, with one or two domain experts (who know the domain and are good s/w engineers), pair it up with the team of…

It is not a matter of assembling a team. It is a matter of corporate culture.

You can't bolt software on to an organization like that. They simply do not understand, deeply and utterly. It might be willfully. Just identifying defects clearly can be quite a bit beyond some people.

But I heartily recommend that you try it. You will learn a lot about humanity.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#119

Post by eric_h »

stale2002 wrote: post #81
Florin_Andrei wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a battle between supply and demand. Or, to put it in more blunt terms, between production and greed. We always seem to want more "stuff" for some reason. Without some changes in the way we think and feel, we may never reach true post-scarcity.

This isnt true though. For example, air is currently a post scarcity good. You don't pay for the air you breath. But do spend your day trying to collect more and more air? No. Because you can have as much air as you want.

If you go to places at high altitude, they literally sell compressed O2 in cans, at oxygen bars, etc.

It is not a requirement per se for you to survive in those environments, but boy does it feel good to get some O2 if you don't have enough red blood cells in your veins to get the oxygen your body needs to feel comfortable.

The same is true, IIRC, in Beijing, where clean air can be hard to come by.

Re: Robots Are Taking Over Oil Rigs

#120

Post by ArkyBeagle »

XorNot wrote: post #88
leereeves wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Automation as defined by that comment is a really low bar. It probably is possible. > That means an engineer can design an oil well at his desk. With the press of a button, an automated system would identify the equipment needed from a supplier, create a 3D model and send instructions for building it out into the field, Hashmi says. “That is automation.” I'd be very surprised if that doesn't already exist: printing a…

It's not hard to imagine a search engine which matches mechanical descriptions of parts to a proposed design automatically. Just draw roughly what you need, punch in the specs, and let the expert-system provide a least-cost bill-of-materials which comes nearest the ratings + a list of custom parts.

Who is going to do provenance on the parts list? You know that all organizations that buy parts have an entire fleet of people to do this, right? It goes all the way from vendor accounting to physical inventory to finance to shipping to engineering to production to...
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