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Trident whistleblower: nuclear 'disaster waiting to happen' (2015)

wikileaks.org

51–60 of 98 posts

Re: Trident whistleblower: nuclear 'disaster waiting to happen' (2015)

#51
post #14

Reminiscent on NASA and the two shuttle losses. Many near misses which were monitored over the years (of the problem that ultimately doomed them), but no action to eliminate the near misses.

Very much a similar issue and their were multiple silenced whistleblowers to that as well. I am glad my whistleblowing moment passed because recent history (last 30 years) tells me you do not want to become one.

> my whistleblowing moment

Can you go into further detail? Not asking to reveal what you don't want to, but I am of course curious what you mean.

Re: Trident whistleblower: nuclear 'disaster waiting to happen' (2015)

#52
post #47
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he was talking about this one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-28_Sarmat

I think it's more likely to be this: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2015/11/18/r... Interestingly, it appears to be propaganda only intended for internal consumption in former USSR.

That's minor PR event which likely purpose is to send some message to the West, while also delivering some "good news" to the audience of state TV. If you'll ask anyone in Russia, noone will remember it. Meanwhile, RS-28 is real and Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces do perform the upgrade of the whole triade at this moment.

Re: Trident whistleblower: nuclear 'disaster waiting to happen' (2015)

#54

The only reason to have nuclear weapons is a deterrent, but how do we modernize our nuclear systems for Safety and Security without escalating tensions?

The Russians built the largest nucleur weapon of all time just a year or two ago. Its hardly an escalation when other countries are doing the same thing.

This is misleading: the size of a specific weapon is not the whole story if you don't look at the map to compare where the weapons are

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_NATO_chronolo...

http://iran-si.org/images/docs/000001/001067/images/NATOExpa...

Then Google for US and NATO military bases.

Re: Trident whistleblower: nuclear 'disaster waiting to happen' (2015)

#55

The only reason to have nuclear weapons is a deterrent, but how do we modernize our nuclear systems for Safety and Security without escalating tensions?

It is probably a question of money. The testimony of the leaker is full of references to the Americans supposedly doing things better and more professionally. If true, that is surely a funding issue.

An American officer isn't really allowed to blow off concerns (at least from a nuke) like they did in that rant. They actually can't if they want to keep their job.

This rant pretty much falls into what every sailor that hates their job dreams about doing. Though they normally end up sadding out before it gets to this point (using real or fake psychological issues to disqualify themselves).

Re: Trident whistleblower: nuclear 'disaster waiting to happen' (2015)

#56
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the invaded stay occupied?

If you're talking about Crimea then... well yeah, wasn't that going to happen anyway? Not sure why Trump gets the blame for things that already happened on Obama's watch.

Who's blaming Trump for Putin's invasion?

Re: Trident whistleblower: nuclear 'disaster waiting to happen' (2015)

#57

The only reason to have nuclear weapons is a deterrent, but how do we modernize our nuclear systems for Safety and Security without escalating tensions?

It is probably a question of money. The testimony of the leaker is full of references to the Americans supposedly doing things better and more professionally. If true, that is surely a funding issue.

I have another conclusion. Here, for example:

"they would deviate from set procedures because the procedures can be “long and winding.” He said “sometimes you just know that you can adjust a valve slightly and that would solve the problem. Following the procedures might take you down a long and winding path.” You might think that's no big deal, just an engineer using his engineering skills; if he was caught doing this kind of action on an American submarine it would cost him his job and possibly his freedom. If you work on the Strategic Weapon System you must follow the procedures, mistakes can be catastrophic."

What I read is just that he doesn't understand the issues. The engineers make something and make the consoles sounding "alarm" for many various reasons. They also make the documents of the "standard procedures" to follow.

Now some alarms are in use observed to happen too often. That's a clear problem in how the thing was designed. The cleanest response would be to redesign the devices, or at least the documents of the standard procedures to include the "shortcut checks."

But in his specific case it's just the people on duty that passed their knowledge from one to another. Maybe they even tried to initiate change in the documents or even asked for the redesign and failed.

So they are not wrong for doing what they are doing, it's just that the system doesn't care enough for the feedback from "the trenches."

Which happens everywhere.

In that light, all non-engineers or people not being "in the trenches" with the technical equipment really have too idealized understanding that the things "just work." No they don't, everything fails all the time.

Which is why we really should press the politicians to reduce the number of nuclear weapons. Sooner or later there will be some very nasty failure, an unintended accident, and it's a big difference if that failure doesn't destroy the whole civilization at once.

Re: Trident whistleblower: nuclear 'disaster waiting to happen' (2015)

#58
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've read a couple of articles, and as I understand it a missile veered off course. During a test. Which is kind of the point of a test. Oh, except apparently it 'veered' towards the US. And this was before the vote to renew, so naturally people are trying to call it a cover up.

I am impressed how quickly they tried to spin it by claiming a successful test of the submarine and the crew. considering that the UK has four of these subs of which only one is on deployment it does beg the question, what is the point of such a fleet half or more is not in usable condition?

Because you need to be able to have one boat in repair/refurbishment, one en route to deployment or returning from, and another being replenished and preparing for its next deployment. Four is a minimum to get by and as you increase the number of boats you still only get an on-station percentage less than 50%.

Re: Trident whistleblower: nuclear 'disaster waiting to happen' (2015)

#59
post #37
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't expect anything to work 100% of the time. I do expect a missile to fail in a way that wouldn't mean accidentally obliterating tens of thousands of people in the wrong country though. I would also expect a politician to mention that failure mode is a possibility when politicians are considering spending £30b on renewing it.

Is there any evidence whatsoever that the missile could fail in a way that would mean "obliterating tens of thousands of people in the wrong country"? SSBNs carry more than one missile for a reason - currently the UK sails with up to 8 missiles and 40 warheads, not every one needs to work perfectly. It's also worth pointing out that if the UK ever needed to use Trident then the resultant nuclear fallout would probabl…

> Is there any evidence whatsoever that the missile could fail in a way that would mean "obliterating tens of thousands of people in the wrong country"?

Yes, in the "test" last year (that is, the missile luckily didn't carry the real nuclear bomb) the missile was launched to arrive around the coast of Africa but it flew toward Florida! There's no more obvious miss than that.

That's the very "Trident "accident" which May did not disclose to Parliament" from the top post of this thread.

And the reason we should really press all the politicians for the reduction of nuclear weapons. It's not the question of if but when and what the consequences will be of the "accidental" detonations.

The best protection is to have at least a very limited number of weapons. The balance of power can be held even with a little of them.

If you hear anything else, it's from those that don't want the balance but to "win."

Re: Trident whistleblower: nuclear 'disaster waiting to happen' (2015)

#60
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the scariest thing I've read in a while. Plutonium itself inside of nuclear warheads is unstable?

Is it? This is completely unverifiable information (it's outside his area of expertise - operators are not nuclear physicists). He's extremely vague about what the danger is supposed to be (i.e. wikipedia has some notes on aging - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutonium%E2%80%93gallium_allo... - it's not like there's a danger of an uncontrolled nuclear detonation.) Frankly: this is wikileaks. I'm giving it the side-e…

I wonder what value has this answer of an obvious non-expert to the question of an obvious non-expert.

Would you like to provide any valuable content? I mean [non-alternative] factual content.

Please understand that it is not of interest for the public what you think about wikileaks. Thanks!

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