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How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

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21–30 of 55 posts

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#21
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The leaders need an incentive to ensure the law is followed.

How do you incentivize "produce less goods/generate less profit"[1]? That's a genuine question. We can barely de -incentivize flat-out criminal behavior. The line between malice and negligence is a tenuous at best. DA's feel lucky when they get a Grand Jury to indict which almost always results in a plea bargain being offered by the State, accepted by the indicted, and stamped on through by the Judge hearing the case…

You could incentivise more people to audit their banks by eliminating deposit insurance.

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#22
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in this case even the risk team singed off on it. What more could a CEO do. This doesn't seem like a valid excuse. The risk team will just tell you the probability of being fined at various levels. If the risk team tells you "there's only a 0.1% chance you will get caught for this murder" and then you get caught murdering someone you can't just say "but the risk team said I probably wouldn't get caught!"

The laws have gotten increasingly vague, and enforcement increasingly discretionary, so you never know which rule (if any) will be applied to what action. As such, no one can guarantee that any action is 'legal', so the risk team will always say there is a 1-10% chance of being fined/prosecuted. These enforcement actions have become an unavoidable cost of doing business.

>These enforcement actions have become an unavoidable cost of doing business.

I don't know if we realize the gravity of that statement.

The current environment rewards companies who take these sorts of actions. A bank that did not take these actions would be out-competed.

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#23
post #9
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies don't want to police their own departments. This is how lots of modern companies deal with laws they don't like. They commit to obeying the law, tell everybody not to do anything illegal, but at the same time place requirements and expectations on the peons that force them to break the law. Then the peons get caught, they tell everybody how it's not their fault, they told everyone not to do that. The peons…

Wow I was downvoted for saying that management needs to be held accountable for criminality? The cycle repeats because there is no disincentive to stop it. How many people went to jail after the 2008 crisis? I think you could count them on one hand and still not use all you fingers. Nobody will go to jail for Wells Fargo fraud either.

Downvotes happen. Maybe someone fat fingered. Maybe someone doesn't like you because of a different post. No point in dwelling on it, and in any event often enough it swings back later.

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#24
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The leaders need an incentive to ensure the law is followed.

How do you incentivize "produce less goods/generate less profit"[1]? That's a genuine question. We can barely de -incentivize flat-out criminal behavior. The line between malice and negligence is a tenuous at best. DA's feel lucky when they get a Grand Jury to indict which almost always results in a plea bargain being offered by the State, accepted by the indicted, and stamped on through by the Judge hearing the case…

> How do you incentivize "produce less goods/generate less profit"[1]?

Simple, you make the fines bigger.

Until the fines become an existential threat to the company, the fines are too small.

Once the fines actually start impacting the returns, everybody inside the company will start paying more attention.

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#25
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The laws have gotten increasingly vague, and enforcement increasingly discretionary, so you never know which rule (if any) will be applied to what action. As such, no one can guarantee that any action is 'legal', so the risk team will always say there is a 1-10% chance of being fined/prosecuted. These enforcement actions have become an unavoidable cost of doing business.

>These enforcement actions have become an unavoidable cost of doing business. I don't know if we realize the gravity of that statement. The current environment rewards companies who take these sorts of actions. A bank that did not take these actions would be out-competed.

We want a world where people "deserve" the things they have/can-do; but I don't think we will ever get close to that (we sure can try tho)

It happens the same way in an individual level; the "wolf of wall street" (Jordan Belfortm) did a lot of illegal things; but despite being found guilty and forced to pay fines he is still better off for having done them (~10M offshore money and book/movie money among others).

Heck, it even happens in social interactions, for example kissing a random woman in the street without asking can give someone jail time (sexual harassment and what not) but if he is lucky she may fall for that; they may even get married later on.

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#27
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"It's very hard to police a world wide distributed teams, who have many conflicting views, all of who get paid based on what they produce and don't have much long term incentive to see things any other way." Why is this hard for management to police their own departments? Other industries manage distributed teams just fine. I agree with your other points in that passage. The real issues is that there exists a cultur…

>If they are that good then more should be expected of them. They should be conducting independent audits - "trust by verify" or do some innovating in the area of compliance. Their M.O. is always to blame someone else, the buck never stops with them. Isn't that a little extreme? $500MM sounds like a butt ton of money to you and I, but Deutsche Bank has over $800B aum. To successfully audit $800B in assets a year he'd…

The person bearing overall responsibility to appoint the right people to build a system of internal controls that can audit whatever volume of trade they are doing. In this case it seems that the top people knew all about this trade and it is clear that the accounting treatment of a trade that spreads a loss into the future would be 'fair value'. IE 0. So if the courts find that this actually happened then of course the execs are culpable.

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#28
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People legitimately disagree about value. Investment horizon is a large factor. Two teams can do the opposite side of a trade and both profit on different horizons. Usually the agreement or disagreement is statistical, executed by a program in small fractions of a second. There is almost always some noise involved at the exchange, sometimes even some intentional randomness. It's not the same as getting people talk to…

Lets review the claims I was responding to: "Deutsche has paid more than $9 billion in further fines and settlements related to claims of tax evasion; violating sanctions against Iran, Libya, Syria, Myanmar, and Sudan; rigging the $300 trillion Libor market' None of these are a byproduct of programatic trading.

And neither was this case. It was about one single dodgy trade

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#29

I wrote my feelings about how Deutsche got into this mess here. I think its still a valid take on how things unraveled. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13047056 > Essentially, the trade had little economic purpose—only an accounting one. Yep, that's one of the first things you learn about when you take any kind of trading course. At a lower level in the cash equity markets you have something similar with wash tr…

You have an accurate assessment. It is the prisoner's dilemma problem: Do what others are doing & do it first. Or have them do it get, bet bigger and acquire you, and you'll end up doing it anyway.

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#30
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>These enforcement actions have become an unavoidable cost of doing business. I don't know if we realize the gravity of that statement. The current environment rewards companies who take these sorts of actions. A bank that did not take these actions would be out-competed.

We want a world where people "deserve" the things they have/can-do; but I don't think we will ever get close to that (we sure can try tho) It happens the same way in an individual level; the "wolf of wall street" (Jordan Belfortm) did a lot of illegal things; but despite being found guilty and forced to pay fines he is still better off for having done them (~10M offshore money and book/movie money among others). Heck…

I don't think the kiss example is a good comparison because if you go to jail you gain nothing, whereas banksters do.
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