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How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

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Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#11
post #6

There is a subtle historical irony on this deal happening with an Italian bank. Italian banking, including the bank in question, got its start back in the middle ages by getting around prohibitions on usury with similar "guaranteed to lose" bets on currencies. The bank would give the borrower money in one currency now, and the borrower would give the bank back a different sum of money in another currency in 6 months.…

The song "Everything Old Is New Again" by Peter Allen & Carole Bayer Sager from the 1974 album Continental American seems apt.

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#13

I wrote my feelings about how Deutsche got into this mess here. I think its still a valid take on how things unraveled. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13047056 > Essentially, the trade had little economic purpose—only an accounting one. Yep, that's one of the first things you learn about when you take any kind of trading course. At a lower level in the cash equity markets you have something similar with wash tr…

> in this case even the risk team singed off on it. What more could a CEO do.

This doesn't seem like a valid excuse. The risk team will just tell you the probability of being fined at various levels. If the risk team tells you "there's only a 0.1% chance you will get caught for this murder" and then you get caught murdering someone you can't just say "but the risk team said I probably wouldn't get caught!"

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#14
post #4

I wrote my feelings about how Deutsche got into this mess here. I think its still a valid take on how things unraveled. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13047056 > Essentially, the trade had little economic purpose—only an accounting one. Yep, that's one of the first things you learn about when you take any kind of trading course. At a lower level in the cash equity markets you have something similar with wash tr…

>"It's very hard to police a world wide distributed teams, who have many conflicting views, all of who get paid based on what they produce and don't have much long term incentive to see things any other way." Why is this hard for management to police their own departments? Other industries manage distributed teams just fine. I agree with your other points in that passage. The real issues is that there exists a cultur…

[deleted]

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#15

I wrote my feelings about how Deutsche got into this mess here. I think its still a valid take on how things unraveled. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13047056 > Essentially, the trade had little economic purpose—only an accounting one. Yep, that's one of the first things you learn about when you take any kind of trading course. At a lower level in the cash equity markets you have something similar with wash tr…

> in this case even the risk team singed off on it. What more could a CEO do. This doesn't seem like a valid excuse. The risk team will just tell you the probability of being fined at various levels. If the risk team tells you "there's only a 0.1% chance you will get caught for this murder" and then you get caught murdering someone you can't just say "but the risk team said I probably wouldn't get caught!"

The laws have gotten increasingly vague, and enforcement increasingly discretionary, so you never know which rule (if any) will be applied to what action. As such, no one can guarantee that any action is 'legal', so the risk team will always say there is a 1-10% chance of being fined/prosecuted.

These enforcement actions have become an unavoidable cost of doing business.

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#16
post #4

I wrote my feelings about how Deutsche got into this mess here. I think its still a valid take on how things unraveled. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13047056 > Essentially, the trade had little economic purpose—only an accounting one. Yep, that's one of the first things you learn about when you take any kind of trading course. At a lower level in the cash equity markets you have something similar with wash tr…

>"It's very hard to police a world wide distributed teams, who have many conflicting views, all of who get paid based on what they produce and don't have much long term incentive to see things any other way." Why is this hard for management to police their own departments? Other industries manage distributed teams just fine. I agree with your other points in that passage. The real issues is that there exists a cultur…

>If they are that good then more should be expected of them. They should be conducting independent audits - "trust by verify" or do some innovating in the area of compliance. Their M.O. is always to blame someone else, the buck never stops with them.

Isn't that a little extreme? $500MM sounds like a butt ton of money to you and I, but Deutsche Bank has over $800B aum. To successfully audit $800B in assets a year he'd need to look at almost $2.2B of deals a day, assuming there's 0 fluctuation in earnings per day. Then he'd have to no time for figuring out what units are the most profitable and growing those business. He'd spend 100% of his time assessing risk, kind of like that department he hires to handle risk assessments. Even if he spent an hour a day doing random spot checks of deals, their are so many sour ones to clean ones that it'd almost be a waste of time.

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#17
post #5
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"It's very hard to police a world wide distributed teams, who have many conflicting views, all of who get paid based on what they produce and don't have much long term incentive to see things any other way." Why is this hard for management to police their own departments? Other industries manage distributed teams just fine. I agree with your other points in that passage. The real issues is that there exists a cultur…

Companies don't want to police their own departments. This is how lots of modern companies deal with laws they don't like. They commit to obeying the law, tell everybody not to do anything illegal, but at the same time place requirements and expectations on the peons that force them to break the law. Then the peons get caught, they tell everybody how it's not their fault, they told everyone not to do that. The peons…

Like "self-employed" package deliverers. Many of them only can get their workload done by constantly breaking speed limits.

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#18
Somehow I need (as an Italian) to underline how the Monte dei Paschi di Siena was founded in 1472 (yes, that is 20 years before Columbus found America thinking to make a new route to India) and had prospered until the new economists/geniuses took over in the 90's.

In other words "how to make five centuries (500 years!) of experience go waste".

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#19
post #18

Somehow I need (as an Italian) to underline how the Monte dei Paschi di Siena was founded in 1472 (yes, that is 20 years before Columbus found America thinking to make a new route to India) and had prospered until the new economists/geniuses took over in the 90's. In other words "how to make five centuries (500 years!) of experience go waste".

[deleted]

Re: How Deutsche Bank Made a $462M Loss Disappear

#20
post #8
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies don't want to police their own departments. This is how lots of modern companies deal with laws they don't like. They commit to obeying the law, tell everybody not to do anything illegal, but at the same time place requirements and expectations on the peons that force them to break the law. Then the peons get caught, they tell everybody how it's not their fault, they told everyone not to do that. The peons…

The leaders need an incentive to ensure the law is followed.

How do you incentivize "produce less goods/generate less profit"[1]? That's a genuine question. We can barely de-incentivize flat-out criminal behavior. The line between malice and negligence is a tenuous at best. DA's feel lucky when they get a Grand Jury to indict which almost always results in a plea bargain being offered by the State, accepted by the indicted, and stamped on through by the Judge hearing the case.

Auditors were supposed to make sure books were GAAP-compliant. That was their entire job. Even they can't/won't keep up (RIP Arthur Anderson). And that whole "you have to file an 8-K with teh SECevery 3 months with the SEC" is limited to publicly traded financial institutions within the United States[2].

To make an analogy, the law can barely keep up with tech (see: amorphous definitions of 'data collection', 'meta-data', is your cryptographic keyphrase protected as a fifth amendment right, is PGP a "munition"?[3]). Financial markets are innovating at just as quickly a rate as we are.

So, in a modern day, how do we prevent 'cooking the books'? I assert that the problem is lack of transparency. Here's an idea that probably has many major issues as I haven't ruminated on it at all, but let me give it a shot: require all transaction data[4] to be independently audited by any stakeholder at any time. As a stakeholder who is keeping my retirement money with this institution I'm highly motivated to ensure that whoever is managing my money is doing so in what I deem to be a proper fashion. Access to their books (obviously with the account information/PII scrubbed), maybe after a business week of buffer time (to allow for some padding for any tactical content that may be in the current positions) should be perhaps be made available.

My second assertion is this will not only keeps the institution obligated to be 'honest' with their reporting as obligated to their stakeholders, but has an auxiliary benefit of incentivizing their competitors to act as very motivated auditors as they scrutinize their competitors books to uncover any malfeasance.

Since regulatory bodies can't keep up, _ensure that all actors within the market actively keep each other honest_. Sure, they can collude but collusion is far easier to detect and prosecute than internal book manipulation.

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[1] Subsidizes to under-produce (big agri. and the like) notwithstanding

[2] There's nothing preventing a pension fund to go take all of GM's money and put it into a private hedge fund, throwing tons of money at a PE firm, becoming a large stake holder in a real estate investment group, or throw their money into any sort of 'unconventional financial entity'. None of these have public reporting obligations, and their federal obligations are limited to tax entities ,co-operating with FINRA, and (if they are using instruments which fall under the regulatory domain of the SEC, then also) the SEC.

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_of_cryptography_from_th...

[4] Both internal and external-- you can do a lot with cost center accounting between arms of an MNC to misrepresent things

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