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NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

techcrunch.com

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Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#261

Post by feedjoelpie »

blazespin wrote: post #246
Animats wrote: post #189

It's interesting how vague this is. There's an NTSB investigation still pending into a specific Tesla crash.[1] The goals are different. NHTSA asks "do we need to do a recall?" NTSB asks "exactly what, in detail, happened here?" NTSB mostly does air crashes, but occasionally they do an auto crash with unusual properties. Here's the NTSB report for the Midland, TX crash between a train and a parade float.[2] That has…

The only thing that matters is "NHTSA notes that crash rates involving Tesla cars have dropped by almost 40 percent since the wide introduction of Autopilot" Even if autopilot was faulty in some way, if more people were living than dying - does it matter?

This is a very simplistic way to look at it. We're in uncharted territory here. Did crash rates go down because driver error went down? Probably. So accidents for which the driver is liable go down a lot. And accidents for which the car-marker is liable go up a little. That last bit is still a very big deal.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#262

Post by hedora »

blazespin wrote: post #246
Animats wrote: post #189

It's interesting how vague this is. There's an NTSB investigation still pending into a specific Tesla crash.[1] The goals are different. NHTSA asks "do we need to do a recall?" NTSB asks "exactly what, in detail, happened here?" NTSB mostly does air crashes, but occasionally they do an auto crash with unusual properties. Here's the NTSB report for the Midland, TX crash between a train and a parade float.[2] That has…

The only thing that matters is "NHTSA notes that crash rates involving Tesla cars have dropped by almost 40 percent since the wide introduction of Autopilot" Even if autopilot was faulty in some way, if more people were living than dying - does it matter?

Yes. Otherwise, you'd hear about coal pollution all the time, but nuclear meltdowns wouldn't make the news (unless they became much more frequent).

Similarly, 9/11 would be a footnote compared to sketchy pain killer drug trials. The black lives matter movement would focus more on sentencing disparities and for-profit prison conditions than police shootings, etc, etc.

The reason it matters here is that it's presumably easy for Tesla to fix any bugs that are killing people.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#263

Post by slavik81 »

jayjay71 wrote: post #223
semi-extrinsic wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably they meant airbag deployment crashes in Teslas. We can estimate the absolute number from Tesla's press release in December stating that 1.3 billion miles have been driven on Autopilot, while the NHTSA report states the accidents they count occur 0.8 times per million miles. So in that case it's data from about 1000 crashes in the Autopilot case, and more in the non-Autopilot case. Which tells us that the s…

So they're comparing miles driven manually before a certain date to miles driven manually and automatically after a certain date? It certainly implies that Autopilot is safer, but why not separate it properly (Autopilot vs manual) and give us far more accurate information? It just seems...odd.

Comparing all miles both before and after neatly sidesteps the problem that the autopilot only works on relatively good roads.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#264

Post by yohui »

greglindahl wrote: post #257
yohui wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't believe they counted cars without the sensors, either before or after. Your statement about "at most a small fraction" has no evidence. Thanks for explaining. The NHTSA report says: > ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either installed in the vehicle when sold or thro…

WTH. I didn't say "it's safe to say that the bulk of the miles driven "before Autosteer" happened between March and October 2015". If you want to debate Elon Musk's tweets and not what I'm saying, respond to Elon. If you respond to me, please respond to what I'm saying. You've totally wasted my time, and all the readers of this thread. (Edit: Oh, and thanks for not marking your edit an edit.)

> WTH. I didn't say "it's safe to say that the bulk of the miles driven "before Autosteer" happened between March and October 2015".

I didn't say you did. I suppose you could interpret "I don't think it's safe to say X" as referring to your speech, but I read it as "I don't think X".

> If you want to debate Elon Musk's tweets and not what I'm saying, respond to Elon. If you respond to me, please respond to what I'm saying. You've totally wasted my time, and all the readers of this thread.

Well, I never asked you to debate it. It's a relevant because the TechCrunch article that we're discussing does imply that Autosteer or Autopilot is principally responsible for the 40% reduction in crashes, and in my first comment I expressed my doubts on the claim.

I would agree that "a combination of AEB and autosteer" is possibly the real reason behind the reduction in crash rate, but I would point out that while we already have strong evidence that AEB alone can lead to a large reduction in crash rate we cannot prove or disprove that Autosteer's impact is comparable.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#265

Post by taneq »

maxander wrote: post #221
mjevans wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Predictions like that only work out if the lesson is sufficiently broadcast. Clearly, since this is still newsworthy here, that is not the case. (However this back channel is helping.)

If there isn't some compilation or review article along the lines of "all serious failure modes encountered in autonomous vehicles since 2005-ish," there should be.

That's an excellent idea and should be managed centrally (by the NHTSA or similar). Basically a communal regression test suite that all self-driving vehicles have to pass.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#266

Post by sampo »

lamontcg wrote: post #84
Roritharr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

> wealthy (probably better educated) drivers. You mean drivers like the ones behind the wheel of all the BMWs and Audis that cut me off with no turn signals, speed, make aggressive lane changes, tailgate, and generally act like giant douches because a simple traffic ticket is nothing to their pocketbook while their time == money? Those people are going to be a hell of a lot safer behind the wheel of an autonomous (le…

> because a simple traffic ticket is nothing to their pocketbook

Finland has a system where a traffic ticket is a certain percentage of your monthly income. For example, running a red light is typically fined for 25% of your monthly income.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#267

Post by [deleted] »

Pxtl wrote: post #53
mikeash wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Level 3 is the real danger area. That's the level where the driver is able to do other things, but must be prepared to retake control at any time. Those two ideas are basically contradictory: if you're not already involved with driving, it takes too long to get back into it to do anything useful. Tesla's system is level 2, meaning that the driver must (as in, is supposed to) remain engaged and aware of the driving ta…

There is zero chance I'd stay awake behind the wheel of a level 2 or 3 vehicle.

[deleted]

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#268

Post by jayjay71 »

slavik81 wrote: post #263
jayjay71 wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So they're comparing miles driven manually before a certain date to miles driven manually and automatically after a certain date? It certainly implies that Autopilot is safer, but why not separate it properly (Autopilot vs manual) and give us far more accurate information? It just seems...odd.

Comparing all miles both before and after neatly sidesteps the problem that the autopilot only works on relatively good roads.

Even so, Tesla should be able to tell whether or not you're driving on a highway with all of the data they collect. Why not compare that data to the Autopilot data? This report wasn't made by Tesla, it was made by the NHTSA. So why not do a more meaningful comparison?

It's weird.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#270

Post by lz400 »

I think there's sometimes a lot of marketing and hand waving in this type of argument "crashes go down with autopilot". Most car accidents are caused by drunk or old people, and they drag the average up. if you tell me a Tesla autopilot beats a drunk guy it won't surprise anyone. Now as a non-drunk, young(ish) driver but experienced and careful, my statistics don't look anything like the average, they look at lot better. You have to convince this demographic, not beat the averages otherwise it's not rational for me to buy the feature. I'm guessing this goal post is a lot harder.
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