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NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

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Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#251

Post by greglindahl »

yohui wrote: post #249
greglindahl wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla was growing rapidly in that era, and the sensors weren't even available at the start of calendar year 2013. All cars shipped with sensors starting in October 2014. It'd be nice if the NHTSA report quantified this a bit, but they didn't. I don't think your suspicion is correct: some of the AEB benefit is in the earlier figure, and the number of airbag deployments is not small.

> Tesla was growing rapidly in that era, and the sensors weren't even available at the start of calendar year 2013. All cars shipped with sensors starting in October 2014. I don't follow the statement about sensor availability. That doesn't seem to change the fact that all the miles driven "after Autosteer" benefited from AEB, while at most a small fraction of the miles driven "before Autosteer" would have had AEB av…

I don't believe they counted cars without the sensors, either before or after. Your statement about "at most a small fraction" has no evidence.

Finally, who said the reduction in crashes is Autosteer alone? Not me. It appears to be a combination of AEB and autosteer. That's what "some of the AEB benefit is in the earlier figure" means.

(Edit: note that the above comment was edited without marking the edit. See below.)

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#252

Post by [deleted] »

Animats wrote: post #189

It's interesting how vague this is. There's an NTSB investigation still pending into a specific Tesla crash.[1] The goals are different. NHTSA asks "do we need to do a recall?" NTSB asks "exactly what, in detail, happened here?" NTSB mostly does air crashes, but occasionally they do an auto crash with unusual properties. Here's the NTSB report for the Midland, TX crash between a train and a parade float.[2] That has…

[deleted]

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#253

Post by greglindahl »

everlost wrote: post #217
Animats wrote: post #189

It's interesting how vague this is. There's an NTSB investigation still pending into a specific Tesla crash.[1] The goals are different. NHTSA asks "do we need to do a recall?" NTSB asks "exactly what, in detail, happened here?" NTSB mostly does air crashes, but occasionally they do an auto crash with unusual properties. Here's the NTSB report for the Midland, TX crash between a train and a parade float.[2] That has…

Yes, it does seem vague. Isn't the NHTSA investigation meant to be a non-biased root-cause-analysis about last year's trailer crash? Instead, this just seems to be a grading report on Tesla's autopilot compliance.

Section 5.3 pretty much sums up the root cause of this accident: the driver assist requires the driver to be alert, and the driver had 7 seconds to react and didn't.

There's no requirement that driver assist software magically become self-driving software in that situation. Put another way: it's nice if the software can avoid a problem, but not required.

The main remaining concern is that drivers not be confused about what they are required to do; there's discussion about that in this document.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#254

Post by greglindahl »

uncoder0 wrote: post #211

After looking at the report it looks like Tesla ran into the same issue we did in the 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge. The trailer was higher than the front facing sensors. We and most other teams had all assumed 'Ground Based Obstacles' meant that any obstacles on the test track would make contact with the ground in the lane of travel. DARPA decided to put a railroad bar across the street and expected cars to back up and…

The main issue in Tesla's case is that "assist" can't prevent an accident if the driver isn't alert for 7 seconds. Tesla's software is level 2; you were aiming at 3+. As Tesla heads for 3+, sure, they're going to have to solve the problem you (literally) ran into.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#255

Post by [deleted] »

uncoder0 wrote: post #211

After looking at the report it looks like Tesla ran into the same issue we did in the 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge. The trailer was higher than the front facing sensors. We and most other teams had all assumed 'Ground Based Obstacles' meant that any obstacles on the test track would make contact with the ground in the lane of travel. DARPA decided to put a railroad bar across the street and expected cars to back up and…

[deleted]

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#256

Post by yohui »

greglindahl wrote: post #251
yohui wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla was growing rapidly in that era, and the sensors weren't even available at the start of calendar year 2013. All cars shipped with sensors starting in October 2014. I don't follow the statement about sensor availability. That doesn't seem to change the fact that all the miles driven "after Autosteer" benefited from AEB, while at most a small fraction of the miles driven "before Autosteer" would have had AEB av…

I don't believe they counted cars without the sensors, either before or after. Your statement about "at most a small fraction" has no evidence. Finally, who said the reduction in crashes is Autosteer alone? Not me. It appears to be a combination of AEB and autosteer. That's what "some of the AEB benefit is in the earlier figure" means. (Edit: note that the above comment was edited without marking the edit. See below.…

> I don't believe they counted cars without the sensors, either before or after. Your statement about "at most a small fraction" has no evidence.

Thanks for explaining. The NHTSA report says:

> ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either installed in the vehicle when sold or through an OTA update, to calculate crash rates by miles travelled prior to[21] and after Autopilot installation.

> [21]: Approximately one-third of the subject vehicles accumulated mileage prior to Autopilot installation.

So yes, cars which never had Autopilot installed were not counted, but they obviously did count cars from calendar year 2013 which later had Autopilot installed or else they wouldn't have said "MY 2014".

I don't think it's safe to say that the bulk of the miles driven "before Autosteer" happened between March and October 2015 on cars which had AEB systems available.

> Finally, who said the reduction in crashes is Autosteer alone? Not me. It appears to be a combination of AEB and autosteer. That's what "some of the AEB benefit is in the earlier figure" means.

It's implied by Elon Musk's tweet and all the press articles I've seen that Autopilot/Autosteer is responsible for the 40% reduction in crashes, as I mentioned in an edit to my previous comment.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#257

Post by greglindahl »

yohui wrote: post #256
greglindahl wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't believe they counted cars without the sensors, either before or after. Your statement about "at most a small fraction" has no evidence. Finally, who said the reduction in crashes is Autosteer alone? Not me. It appears to be a combination of AEB and autosteer. That's what "some of the AEB benefit is in the earlier figure" means. (Edit: note that the above comment was edited without marking the edit. See below.…

> I don't believe they counted cars without the sensors, either before or after. Your statement about "at most a small fraction" has no evidence. Thanks for explaining. The NHTSA report says: > ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either installed in the vehicle when sold or thro…

WTH. I didn't say "it's safe to say that the bulk of the miles driven "before Autosteer" happened between March and October 2015".

If you want to debate Elon Musk's tweets and not what I'm saying, respond to Elon. If you respond to me, please respond to what I'm saying. You've totally wasted my time, and all the readers of this thread.

(Edit: Oh, and thanks for not marking your edit an edit.)

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#258

Post by Reason077 »

illumin8 wrote: post #169
manicdee wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect the average Tesla driver is more irresponsible than the average driver, simply because they're rich and are used to getting their way. If you study rich drivers I have no doubt that you would find that they cut people off more, overtake in more dangerous situations, use their indicators less, drive over the speed limit more, proceed through amber signals later, run red lights more often, and generally show…

Credit rating is highly correlated with wealth, and is also highly correlated with reduced accident rates. This is evidenced by me personally, as I now get much better auto insurance rates with an 800+ credit rating than I did when I was in the 600s right out of college. I would be willing to bet money that the insurance actuaries that actually calculate risk disagree with your extremely prejudiced opinion.

Credit rating is highly correlated with wealth, and is also highly correlated with reduced accident rates.

You're assuming that accident rates are directly correlated with claim rates, however. A wealthy individual is less likely claim for a minor accident, preferring to pay out of pocket for small repairs rather than take a big hit on their premiums. Someone less wealthy may not have that option.

There are other reasons why wealth may reduce your risk to insurers that are unrelated to safe driving. You're less likely to leave a car parked insecurely in a dodgy part of town, for example.

Finally, "drivers of luxury brand cars" certainly aren't the same set as "wealthy people with good credit records". Plenty of lower net worth people can still manage a lease on a BMW or Mercedes, or buy a used one.

Drivers of luxury cars cause more accidents, insurers say: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/insurance...

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#259

Post by SecretAg3nt »

cle wrote: post #247
blazespin wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only thing that matters is "NHTSA notes that crash rates involving Tesla cars have dropped by almost 40 percent since the wide introduction of Autopilot" Even if autopilot was faulty in some way, if more people were living than dying - does it matter?

It depends who you ask. I'd bet that the widow of a crash victim would disagree...

Isn't this the same argument that could be used in the context of hospital borne infections?

Autopilot will reduced the number of fatalities in the same way that going to the hospital when you are sick will reduce the number of fatalities. However some people that use Autopilot will die when they otherwise would not have if they hadn't used Autopilot, just like how some people going to the hospital will die from infection when they otherwise would not have if they hadn't gone to the hospital.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#260

Post by lamontcg »

battlebot wrote: post #195
lamontcg wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> wealthy (probably better educated) drivers. You mean drivers like the ones behind the wheel of all the BMWs and Audis that cut me off with no turn signals, speed, make aggressive lane changes, tailgate, and generally act like giant douches because a simple traffic ticket is nothing to their pocketbook while their time == money? Those people are going to be a hell of a lot safer behind the wheel of an autonomous (le…

Stop being so self righteous. Do you own a BMW or Audi? I do, and I'm totally polite driving mine. Also, when you have a car that handles and responds better you tend to drive it harder and you forget that everyone else is in some inferior product.

> when you have a car that handles and responds better you tend to drive it harder and you forget that everyone else is in some inferior product.

You can buy traction control, ABS, better suspension, steering, better tires, etc. None of that will make the idiot behind the wheel any better, although it may lead to overconfidence.

Thanks for making my point for me though.

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