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NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

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Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Credit rating is highly correlated with wealth, and is also highly correlated with reduced accident rates. This is evidenced by me personally, as I now get much better auto insurance rates with an 800+ credit rating than I did when I was in the 600s right out of college. I would be willing to bet money that the insurance actuaries that actually calculate risk disagree with your extremely prejudiced opinion.

If you disagree, commenting is probably more appropriate than downvoting. I'm still waiting to hear how your personal opinion about wealthy drivers is more accurate than auto insurance actuaries that calculate risk for a living.

> If you disagree, commenting is probably more appropriate than downvoting.

FWIW, in case you were unaware, Hacker News doesn't allow commenters to downvote direct replies. So whoever might've downvoted you wasn't the parent, and someone corrected it with an upvote or undown (your comment isn't gray as of this writing).

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#242
post #150

40% figure is meaningless unless the absolute numbers are reported. How do we know if this difference is statistically significant ?

was 1.3 crashes / million miles. Is now 0.8 crashes / million miles. Tesla's have driven >= 3 billion miles

So 3000X the difference of 0.5, or 1500 crashes avoided.

:O

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> wealthy (probably better educated) drivers. You mean drivers like the ones behind the wheel of all the BMWs and Audis that cut me off with no turn signals, speed, make aggressive lane changes, tailgate, and generally act like giant douches because a simple traffic ticket is nothing to their pocketbook while their time == money? Those people are going to be a hell of a lot safer behind the wheel of an autonomous (le…

Anecdotally I have a lot more near-incidents with 4WDs and little hatchback getabouts. In my experience the 4WDs have been distracted or drifting outside their lane, and the little getabouts have been tailgating and driving aggressively. Having "P" plates (1) also raises the chances massively . Could just be the numbers of those kinds of cars in my area though. Generally I feel that a douche can drive any type of car…

I actually agree that douches drive any kind of car. I singled out BMWs and Audis because the prior post was claiming that highly educated/wealthy drivers would be 'better'.

I've seen jalopies driven like someone has been up on speed for 4 days straight.

Or the drivers in cheap sensible cars that are terrified of merging onto the freeway faster than 40 mph.

And the distracted drivers who realize they're about to miss their exit so they hammer on the brakes and put on their turn signal and completely fail to match speeds.

Ricers with after market exhaust are another kind of car that usually drives way too fast and aggressive compared to how their lowered suspension actually performs.

The people in road tanks who seem to split the difference between terrified and aggressive and expect you to just get out of their way because they're bigger.

I'm probably missing entire swaths of shitty drivers that I can't think of right now because my blood sugar is a bit low.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#244
I've railed on about the safety issues of autopilot before and how I'm not entirely comfortable with the pace they've developed compared to the considerations of human-machine interfaces and driver attentiveness, particularly given my (moderate) exposure to these sort of problems in other industries. Thus I'm particularly interested in that section of the article.

What I found interesting is that figure 10 shows that as you jack up the independence of the machine, the level of driver distraction accordingly increases. Adaptave Cruise Control (ACC) shows a significantly higher percentage of shorter-duration off-road glances than Limited-Ability Autonomous Driving Systems (LAADS). Additionally, countermeasures help to alleviate some but not all of that increase in distraction. Importantly, this is coupled with the point that the duration in which drivers have to react to most impending is under 3 seconds. This may seem obvious but it's a critical set of data to help objectively demonstrate the risks involved with losing or even reducing alertness.

It goes on to say that Tesla has addressed the risks of mode confusion, distraction, etc. and has implemented solutions to address this unreasonable risk, which they in turn define as abuse that is reasonably forseeable. In this, they're talking about the reasonably forseeable risk of eg: the driver not understanding if they're in autopilot or not. It goes on to mention that Tesla has also changed its driver monitoring strategy to promote driver attention, which I take to mean detecting hands on the steering wheel.

Either way, Telsa's main approach to dealing with driver alertness by testing for hands on the steering wheel. My concern is that this doesn't consider the alertness of the driver to their surroundings, particularly other vehicles that may be approaching them or the process of anticipating hazards (approaching an intersecion where there's a blind corner and adjusting focus to pay more attention to what may come from it, for example). I don't see how Tesla's countermeasures address this.

The physical act of manually driving causes drivers to maintain alertness not only to where they're going, but also the situational alertness of what's around their vehicle. Specifically, it's the process of random actions that requires an taking input, making a decision and executing the appropriate action that maintains this alertness. If the driver isn't having to make those random decisions and take action then their alertness drops. Autopilot, even with hands on the wheel, eliminates much of that random decision-making and reacting.

When you drive, you mentally note the vehicle over your shoulder that is in the lane next to you, and subconsciously consider that they may do something insane. You consider those blind corners as you approach them and that vehicles may spontaneously appear out from them. You see a truck on the road which is approaching a bend and give it a wider berth because its centre throw may cause it to cut the corner into your lane slightly. These are all tasks that you do, that you may not do as well or at all when autopilot is steering, because you are not as engaged with the driving process.

Critically, I don't see how ensuring hands are on the steering wheel causes these alertness tasks to continue as frequently as manual steering. The driver may be in the physical location to quickly take over, but they may not be in the mental location to do so. This is the major issue I have with the rapid autopilot development based on my experience in related areas where maintaining situational alertness proved to be very difficult when the person was engaged with only a limited scope of requirements to prove their conscious presence.

I feel like the report doesn't really drill in to this as much as it needs to. It begins to touch on it around Figure 10 but sort of hand-waves it away saying 'Telsa considered it discharged their responsibility to make sure drivers stay focused by implementing countermeasures', but I believe it's more nuanced than that. It investigates the extent to which Tesla's system is good at ensuring drivers are physically present (that is, their hands aren't on the passenger seat making breakfast) but it doesn't really look at the mental presence that delivers situational alertness.

That mental alertness is the major sticking point for me. I don't really have a solution beyond "drive manually" which isn't reasonable, because this technology is here to stay and will continue to grow, but it's why I've always been bearish about the rapid pace of rollout of these driverless technologies, particuarly when advertised as 'beta'. As I've said before, no amount of disclaimer and 'hey, you should do this' really changes how drivers behave once the equipment is placed in their hands.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotally I have a lot more near-incidents with 4WDs and little hatchback getabouts. In my experience the 4WDs have been distracted or drifting outside their lane, and the little getabouts have been tailgating and driving aggressively. Having "P" plates (1) also raises the chances massively . Could just be the numbers of those kinds of cars in my area though. Generally I feel that a douche can drive any type of car…

I find that drivers who fail to keep right except when passing are the leading cause of 'aggressive' and 'unusual' passing conditions.

Because the aggressive drivers behind them aren't responsible for their own actions in rage passing left lane hogs?

Somehow I manage to consistently undertake people who are going slow in the left lane safely. Its not that hard.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#246

It's interesting how vague this is. There's an NTSB investigation still pending into a specific Tesla crash.[1] The goals are different. NHTSA asks "do we need to do a recall?" NTSB asks "exactly what, in detail, happened here?" NTSB mostly does air crashes, but occasionally they do an auto crash with unusual properties. Here's the NTSB report for the Midland, TX crash between a train and a parade float.[2] That has…

The only thing that matters is "NHTSA notes that crash rates involving Tesla cars have dropped by almost 40 percent since the wide introduction of Autopilot"

Even if autopilot was faulty in some way, if more people were living than dying - does it matter?

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#247

It's interesting how vague this is. There's an NTSB investigation still pending into a specific Tesla crash.[1] The goals are different. NHTSA asks "do we need to do a recall?" NTSB asks "exactly what, in detail, happened here?" NTSB mostly does air crashes, but occasionally they do an auto crash with unusual properties. Here's the NTSB report for the Midland, TX crash between a train and a parade float.[2] That has…

The only thing that matters is "NHTSA notes that crash rates involving Tesla cars have dropped by almost 40 percent since the wide introduction of Autopilot" Even if autopilot was faulty in some way, if more people were living than dying - does it matter?

It depends who you ask. I'd bet that the widow of a crash victim would disagree...

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#248
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Tesla cars had AEB since March 2015. Autopilot (with autosteer) came out in October 2015. Presumably Tesla's AEB gets improved a little with every firmware release.

Thanks. But the NHTSA report looks at data starting with "MY 2014" (i.e. calendar year 2013) cars. If AEB did lead to a 40% reduction in crash rates for Tesla cars, as it did for other car models, I suspect that moving the dividing line by five months later wouldn't change the figures much: you would still have a lot more crashes prior to AEB and fewer after.

Tesla was growing rapidly in that era, and the sensors weren't even available at the start of calendar year 2013. All cars shipped with sensors starting in October 2014. It'd be nice if the NHTSA report quantified this a bit, but they didn't. I don't think your suspicion is correct: some of the AEB benefit is in the earlier figure, and the number of airbag deployments is not small.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#249
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. But the NHTSA report looks at data starting with "MY 2014" (i.e. calendar year 2013) cars. If AEB did lead to a 40% reduction in crash rates for Tesla cars, as it did for other car models, I suspect that moving the dividing line by five months later wouldn't change the figures much: you would still have a lot more crashes prior to AEB and fewer after.

Tesla was growing rapidly in that era, and the sensors weren't even available at the start of calendar year 2013. All cars shipped with sensors starting in October 2014. It'd be nice if the NHTSA report quantified this a bit, but they didn't. I don't think your suspicion is correct: some of the AEB benefit is in the earlier figure, and the number of airbag deployments is not small.

> Tesla was growing rapidly in that era, and the sensors weren't even available at the start of calendar year 2013. All cars shipped with sensors starting in October 2014.

I don't follow the statement about sensor availability. That doesn't seem to change the fact that all the miles driven "after Autosteer" benefited from AEB, while at most a small fraction of the miles driven "before Autosteer" would have had AEB available.

Given that we know AEB systems do reduce frontal collision rates by 40% for all cars, as the NHTSA report stresses, that implies we cannot attribute the reduction in crashes "after Autosteer" to Autosteer alone.

(Which matters because articles such as the one posted are claiming a cause-and-effect relationship between the introduction of Tesla Autopilot and a reduction in crashes, but if a significant portion or even all of the reduction is due to AEB systems that other cars have also started to adopt then we're mistaking correlation for cause.)

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#250
post #2

Tesla comes off extremely well in this report. For one thing, the 40% statistic cited in the headline appears to be well supported by the NHTSA report (section 5.4) and actually manages to frame the incident in a very positive light: ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either in…

The car should immediately pull over and shut down if it detects any activity on the driver's Twitter or Facebook feeds: Social Media Strike Out!

  immediately pull over and shut down
That could be more dangerous than allowing the trip to proceed in many situations (e.g. high-speed, narrow roadway). Fellow drivers assume a certain degree of predictability of other drivers' behavior when no surprise hazards are present.
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