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Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

blog.benjamin-encz.de

191–200 of 413 posts

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It lost 2-3 billion dollars last year and shows no signs of improving its margins anytime soon. How is that a success?

So then Amazon is not a success either?

Amazon's position in the market is so weird that Matt Levine calls it a charity for the American consumer sponsored by the stock market. But it's at least clear how Amazon could generate money long-term; if it wasn't, nobody would invest in it.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#192
Two possible ways Uber may expand the market, based on what I've seen in Chicago:

* Uber seems to do a much better job of serving non-wealthy & minority neighborhoods. I can't find an online source, but distinctly remember a local NPR report that claimed over 2MM Uber rides originated or concluded in an underserved neighborhood, vs. about 200,000 taxi rides.

* Anecdotally, Uber's superior experience is changing behavior. Despite having a thriving taxi industry, hailing a taxi is very unpredictable. If it's cold, raining, a busy night, too early, too late, or rush hour, you may be waiting a long time even in a well-served neighborhood. Uber practically guarantees a ride, meaning that I and my friends are far more likely to venture out. Overall demand for transport seems to have increased.

* Similarly, the reliability of ride sharing services permits many people to avoid car ownership all together. Zip + Uber/Lyft is a very compelling and affordable alternative to car payments, fuel, rented parking and insurance.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#193

I think Uber's business model relies on self-driving cars. They're paying subsidies now to build a brand -- the name "Uber" has become synonymous with "pull out your cell phone and call for a ride" -- that will be very valuable once self-driving taxis become a commodity (which will happen shortly after their introduction). Uber is not a bet on who can build the most profitable taxi company now -- it's a bet on a bran…

Uber does not have an autonomous driving deal with ford.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#194

The commercial airline industry has lost money over the whole of its existence. If I'm flying from NYC to DAL, I'm flying the cheapest carrier (with a slight nod to Frequent Flyer programs). I'm not sure how Uber, Lyft, etc are any different than Southwest, American, etc. Cab companies (which I hate) and airlines saw this years ago and promoted regulations to protect their fees (and, thereby, wages). Airlines lost th…

>The commercial airline industry has lost money over the whole of its existence. Wait, what? How can that be possible? Wouldn't the airlines cease to exist if they never generated profits?

Not saying this is the case here, but the answer is by bankruptcy and continual capital investments.

Let's assume that some small number of airlines continually make small profits (or at least break even). That creates a non-negative balance.

However, let's assume that a number of other airlines are frequently being established and receiving capital investment, before ultimately failing and declaring bankruptcy.

If the losses those airlines represent outweigh the positive balance from our successes, then the industry loses money, despite some players continuing to exist.

To take it further: if you assume people keep making capital investments with capital drawn from other industries, it's possible that the industry continues to exist even whilst no company generates profits in the long term.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#195

The commercial airline industry has lost money over the whole of its existence. If I'm flying from NYC to DAL, I'm flying the cheapest carrier (with a slight nod to Frequent Flyer programs). I'm not sure how Uber, Lyft, etc are any different than Southwest, American, etc. Cab companies (which I hate) and airlines saw this years ago and promoted regulations to protect their fees (and, thereby, wages). Airlines lost th…

Airline regulations were totally different.

The point of those regulations were to ensure universal service and stability of service. It was an outgrowth of passenger rail regulatory frameworks, which emerged after the abuses inflicted by the railroads in the 20th century.

The absence of regulation has been good & bad. Prices are cheaper, but the service levels are horrific and the airline businesses aren't very sustainable.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People seem to underestimate just how much money AWS makes.

AWS makes almost no money compared to their core business, it's around 10%, maybe a little bit more. The profit from AWS, however, is something like 50% of Amazon's total profit. That said, it's not hard to occupy a huge percentage of profits from Amazon since they purposefully run almost every other facet of the business at razor thin margins.

3.2 billion of revenue in one quarter [1] is is nothing to scoff at. However the more important point is without the profit from AWS, Amazon would still be posting huge deficits [2] and would probably face much higher shareholder pressure to produce.

[1] http://venturebeat.com/2016/10/27/aws-reports-3-2-billion-in...

[2] http://www.geekwire.com/2016/amazon-without-aws-online-retai...

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#197

The network effects are pretty obvious actually: as the number of people on the platform increases, the amount of time a driver has to drive to pick you up becomes increasingly shorter, thus enabling the drivers to spend more of their time with a passenger in their car (which is when they are earning money). If drivers are making more money, Uber can pay them less (reduce the subsidy). Old taxi cab companies can't co…

But if Uber is banking on autonomous vehicles none of this matters, because once there are autonomous vehicles providing sufficiently supply is purely a capital problem, and capital problems are relatively easy to solve if there are sufficient profits to be made. And if there aren't sufficient profits to be made, then Uber isn't a very attractive business.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#198
post #71

Here's a table of Uber's funding rounds.[1] What's keeping Uber going is Saudi Arabia's sovereign-wealth fund, which put in $3.5 billion last summer. They also took on $1.15 billion in debt last year. That's real debt at 5% interest, not some convertible deal. Bloomberg says Uber is losing $800 million per quarter.[2] Unless they can find a bigger sucker than the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, they run out of money in 2018…

Bigger sucker would be ipo

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can believe that's their goal: I see little reason to believe they'll succeed in it, beyond making the market a bit bigger than the current taxi/minicab market. Just because they're very good at supplying an unlicensed minicab service (apparently subsidised by VC money in many areas) doesn't mean they can (i) run a minicab business at a profit so much more efficiently than every other minicab business in history th…

Can't say I speak for everyone but I mostly walk to get to places and drive when I have to. I live close enough to an ALDI to get most of my groceries by walking and I can walk to work too. Owning a car means always needing a parking space, going out to get gas, paying for insurance, inspections, etc, having to be capable of driving (because when I'm sauced on a Saturday night I really want to get greasy food, but I…

> A car isn't much of a status symbol when most of your friends can't afford a nice one either. Kinda makes you look like a dick, in comparison.

Isn't that exactly what makes it a status symbol? Keeping up with the Joneses, and all -- it's one thing to not play the game, but that doesn't mean a lot of people don't, and this seems to just be agreeing with what makes it a status symbol.

Most American cities are sufficiently un-dense that things like "always having to look for parking" aren't big deals. Laws ensure places have enough spaces (these policies are very pedestrian-unfriendly, but such places are more car-friendly than the dense coastal cities). Traffic is slower at rush hour but a non-issue any other time in these places.

The average car these days lasts 10+ years. Perpetually renting cars is going to be seen as disadvantage for a lot of people who take out ~5 year loans and then can keep the cars for quite a while after finishing off their payments. Anecdotally I'd wager that people buy new cars more for the status, or for the change of having something new, than to replace something that just doesn't work anymore, nowdays.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#200
post #68

The commercial airline industry has lost money over the whole of its existence. If I'm flying from NYC to DAL, I'm flying the cheapest carrier (with a slight nod to Frequent Flyer programs). I'm not sure how Uber, Lyft, etc are any different than Southwest, American, etc. Cab companies (which I hate) and airlines saw this years ago and promoted regulations to protect their fees (and, thereby, wages). Airlines lost th…

TFA and a lot of commenters here don't seem to understand that Uber doesn't want to compete with taxi services, which are a niche business to be disrupted en route to the real prize. It wants to compete with your car - imagine 12 lanes of L.A. traffic composed mostly of Ubers. That's their dream. They even admit this in public. [0] The day they can get cost per mile one penny below what you'd spend owning a Toyota Ca…

Thats the level they are already at in São Paulo - people here are giving up their cars as it no longer makes financial sense to have one.
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