Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

techcrunch.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 327 posts

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#21

Post by maxerickson »

stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

I would guess emergency braking is the big difference. The only real stopper there is cost, there are multiple different implementations in vehicles on the road right now.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#22

Post by robotresearcher »

kolbe wrote: post #16
stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

on the other hand, i am easily 3 times safer than the average driver, so self driving vehicles would endanger me.

Even if that was true, the fact that all the other idiots are in self driving cars that are not crashing into you makes you safer.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#23

Post by sxp »

The 40% number isn't very informative. The report has multiple notes about it:

ODI analyzed data from crashes of Tesla Model S and Model X vehicles involving airbag deployments that occurred while operating in, or within 15 seconds of transitioning from, Autopilot mode. Some crashes involved impacts from other vehicles striking the Tesla from various directions with little to no warning to the Tesla driver.

ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either installed in the vehicle when sold or through an OTA update, to calculate crash rates by miles travelled prior to[21] and after Autopilot installation.[22] Figure 11 shows the rates calculated by ODI for airbag deployment crashes in the subject Tesla vehicles before and after Autosteer installation. The data show that the Tesla vehicles crash rate dropped by almost 40 percent after Autosteer installation.

21 Approximately one-third of the subject vehicles accumulated mileage prior to Autopilot installation.

22 The crash rates are for all miles travelled before and after Autopilot installation and are not limited to actual Autopilot use.

So the actual rates of crashes for Teslas using Autopilot vs Teslas not using Autopilot aren't reported.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#24

Post by mikeash »

stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

Level 3 is the real danger area. That's the level where the driver is able to do other things, but must be prepared to retake control at any time. Those two ideas are basically contradictory: if you're not already involved with driving, it takes too long to get back into it to do anything useful.

Tesla's system is level 2, meaning that the driver must (as in, is supposed to) remain engaged and aware of the driving task at all times, although the car will handle common cases on its own.

I believe the plan for everybody is to go straight from level 2 to level 4, since it looks like level 3 is just not going to work.

In any case, we can't stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, because there aren't any real self driving cars to deploy yet. The technology is advancing extremely quickly and it's getting close, but politics is not the only obstacle.

If and when we have a real, production-worthy self-driving system that's being blocked by politics for no good reason, we can revisit this. I get the sense that, at least in most places, the politics will be pretty easy once the technology gets there. Getting a lot fewer registered voters killed has a way of swaying legislators. Especially in the US, where it's a state-by-state decision, a few states will want to get a jump on it and then the rest will face immense pressure to follow.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#25

Post by sandworm101 »

Tepix wrote: post #14
sandworm101 wrote: post #5

Great. There is no doubt that driver assists cut down on crashes. But what tesla has on the road is far from a total eyes-closed autopilot. That is an inflection point with this tech that nobody has dared to test on the public road. I remain unconvinced pending those trials. Also, still havent seen any autodrive handle off-road driving such as boarding a carferry or navigate a construction zone manned by an inattenti…

What's your point?

The dream remains a dream. Being able to call your car like batman did the batmobile, a car able to navigate unsupervised is still a decade, perhaps decades, away.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#26

Post by notahacker »

stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

The "shitty variety" that doesn't have to deal with all the stuff the current state-of-the-art pure self-driving cars don't actually do yet like drive in imperfect road conditions and adapt to unusual circumstances because it's just a braking assistant and cruise control system with humans behind the wheel?

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#27

Post by maxerickson »

kolbe wrote: post #16
stale2002 wrote: post #6

Oh, hey, will you look at that. The imperfect, incomplete, beta, level 2 self driving cars that were supposed to be the "dangerous" area of self driving are ALREADY better than human drivers. Can we stop the politics and deploy all the real self driving cars to the road immediately, since the government has proven that even the shitty variety is safer than humans?

on the other hand, i am easily 3 times safer than the average driver, so self driving vehicles would endanger me.

Not necessarily, making other drivers safer makes them less likely to collide with you.

Depending on how all the numbers would work out, making other drivers safer could well make you safer too. It might not, but it could.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#28

Post by huangc10 »

Can anyone who is in the industry comment on how Autopilot performs in poor weather (ie. flash floods, thunderstorms, snowstorms etc...)

All I can find from the article about weather was in section 3.1:

> The manual includes several additional warnings related to system limitations, use near pedestrians and cyclists, and use on winding roads with sharp curves or with slippery surfaces or poor weather conditions. The system does not prevent operation on any road types.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#29

Post by mikeash »

sandworm101 wrote: post #5

Great. There is no doubt that driver assists cut down on crashes. But what tesla has on the road is far from a total eyes-closed autopilot. That is an inflection point with this tech that nobody has dared to test on the public road. I remain unconvinced pending those trials. Also, still havent seen any autodrive handle off-road driving such as boarding a carferry or navigate a construction zone manned by an inattenti…

Haven't there been a lot of tests of self-driving technology on public roads? Tesla has released a couple of videos of theirs, and Google has put a couple million miles on theirs. What hasn't happened yet is a production-ready, customer-owned vehicle on public roads.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#30

Post by [deleted] »

Roritharr wrote: post #4
snewman wrote: post #2

Tesla comes off extremely well in this report. For one thing, the 40% statistic cited in the headline appears to be well supported by the NHTSA report (section 5.4) and actually manages to frame the incident in a very positive light: ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either in…

I really would like to know the absolute numbers for this reduction. It's really questionable if this would hold up with millions of Teslas on the road in the hands of less wealthy(probably better educated) drivers.

[deleted]
Post reply on HN