Amzn and tsla started reporting profits just recently. Would you call them failure?
Why I don't believe in Uber's Success
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Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success
#12To have a moat, they just need sufficient software/human network/infrastructure/legal infrastructure that competing requires too much investment. All of these things are a PITA, and not immediately replicable by fresh local competitors, even without the self-driving cars.
The self-driving cars and consistent platform could seal the deal against the small players entering.
That's not to say their valuation is correct, or anything. :)
Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success
#13If I could bet against Uber, I would do it
How would one short a pre-IPO company. Betting sites?
There's a startup, dotblu I believe, that allowed you to bet on anything. It was with fake blupoints, but I think their plan was to then transform the site into a general purpose betting platform where folks like you would shell out real money on a well defined bet. I think they pivoted to do esport betting.
Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success
#14Possibility: seeing all this, Uber looks hard at what they do have and simply becomes contract cab dispatcher for all cabs everywhere, smartly choosing which cab to call to the scene of the caller using their algorithms. And lets existing can companies so the actual driving. Why? Currently some cab companies have shitty apps, others have none. Your chances of getting a cab in a suburb of an unfamiliar city is zero. U…
The question then becomes: Is a global taxi dispatcher worth 70 billion dollars? Maybe. Probably not.
Investors might think they will branch out into deliveries and other stuff like amazon did from books.
Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success
#15Uber will be successful, but the problem is right now there is no barrier to entry in the market. They're pushing Lyft to spend more on marketing in order to get shares.
Uber has a huge chance of taking over public transportation and making it more effective. That's what I think they're gunning for...to privatize public transportation. How else will you get around town?
Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success
#16Amzn and tsla started reporting profits just recently. Would you call them failure?
Amzn is profitable without burning through investment capital. Tesla is in a much better position but it also could still fail .
Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success
#17Amzn and tsla started reporting profits just recently. Would you call them failure?
I don't think he's saying that it will take a long time for them to turn a profit, but that they never will (or only ever will see the tiny profit margins that, say, the airline industry does).
Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success
#18> Uber’s growth is fueled by subsidies
A lot of people think if their Uber/Lyft ride is cheaper than their traditional taxi because it's subsidized. The lower fare for the most part is due to extreme efficiency difference between a taxi company and Uber/Lyft.
1. Uber/Lyft don't own the cars. They are leveraging car owners capital
2. Uber/Lyft drivers are more efficient because they don't have to roam around the city to find a passenger and they get notifications for when to work. The system scales up and down on demand. No taxi company that owns cars can do this.
3. Uber and Lyft are more convenient for the passenger and it makes people to use them more. I can definitely see myself and people around me to use Uber/Lyft way more than taxi since they came along.
Uber and similar companies are purring cash into this growth because at the end of the day they can make a profit because they are more efficient. And no, it's not easy to make a clone. The network effect is huge!
Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success
#19The potential for autonomous point-to-point freight shipping should pay off sooner than it's consumer business, allowing it to reduce it's investment requirements. Debatable on the timelines though.
You assume though that the network they've built up isn't valuable when you talk about self-driving vehicles. I agree the car tech will be commoditised and to my mind Uber owning their own fleet isn't the best option. It'd be very capital intensive and not a great use of cash.
I liken the switch to self driving cars to the same market as buy-to-let home rentals. If you've got the money why not buy a one (or more) of them, send them out and rent them through Uber/Lyft etc. and keep the money rolling in around the clock. Uber takes a smaller cut but also doesn't incur anything like as much risk.
Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success
#20> Uber’s growth is fueled by subsidies A lot of people think if their Uber/Lyft ride is cheaper than their traditional taxi because it's subsidized. The lower fare for the most part is due to extreme efficiency difference between a taxi company and Uber/Lyft. 1. Uber/Lyft don't own the cars. They are leveraging car owners capital 2. Uber/Lyft drivers are more efficient because they don't have to roam around the city…
The lower fare is because they are not even trying to make a profit.