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Ask HN: What is the next bubble in your opinion?

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Re: Ask HN: What is the next bubble in your opinion?

#11

Post by ericzawo »

kylehotchkiss wrote: post #9
nicholas73 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's personally weird to me that auto loans can be a serious bubble, since I would not feel comfortable buying a car unless I have 10x the sticker price in spare cash, or free cash flow that covers it. Seriously, since it's just a depreciating asset with maintenance liabilities.

There's a lot of places in USA where holding a job is entirely dependent on reliable vehicle. What can you buy, short of some houses, that isn't a deprecating asset?

Do some research and you can get yourself a really nice watch for a grand that will almost certainly appreciate. :)

Re: Ask HN: What is the next bubble in your opinion?

#12

Post by Michael_m »

bdcravens wrote: post #8

> We had quite a dramatic elections in the US. > Since we have computer literate people, founders, risk takers, entrepreneurs, intelligent people on this site, I want to know what do you think is going to be next bubble? I'd argue that "we" are pretty ignorant of what's really going on. (see the recent presidential election) We live in a world of fast Internet, current-gen personal devices, and Instabizzes that make…

Agreed in full. You are absolutely right. Twitter,facebook kids need to grow up.Just neckdown genx.This bubble needs to be pop fast.

Re: Ask HN: What is the next bubble in your opinion?

#13

Post by _coldfire »

bdcravens wrote: post #8

> We had quite a dramatic elections in the US. > Since we have computer literate people, founders, risk takers, entrepreneurs, intelligent people on this site, I want to know what do you think is going to be next bubble? I'd argue that "we" are pretty ignorant of what's really going on. (see the recent presidential election) We live in a world of fast Internet, current-gen personal devices, and Instabizzes that make…

>There's a LOT of people, both red and blue

There's a magnitude more of people who aren't either and wouldn't even understand the meaning of that phrase.

Re: Ask HN: What is the next bubble in your opinion?

#14

Post by [deleted] »

nicholas73 wrote: post #3
jdavis703 wrote: post #2

I think there's a lot of bad auto loans out there. I just bought a new vehicle, and when applying for the loan I couldn't fill out half of the required information (I didn't have it readily at hand). The business office person just kept saying "that's OK, just skip that part." All in all they had barely enough information to let me prove I was who said I was, much less that I could repay the loan. This behavior remin…

It's personally weird to me that auto loans can be a serious bubble, since I would not feel comfortable buying a car unless I have 10x the sticker price in spare cash, or free cash flow that covers it. Seriously, since it's just a depreciating asset with maintenance liabilities.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What is the next bubble in your opinion?

#15

Post by bsvalley »

There won't be any big bubbles anytime soon. Only small bubbles. If silicon valley falls apart tomorrow for example, it would be considered a small bubble since it would be very contained (only VC money). In 2000 the entire world was injecting money in Silicon Valley. It was a complete different setup...

So talking about the next big bubble in 2017 does not make sense.

Re: Ask HN: What is the next bubble in your opinion?

#16

Post by stephancoral »

bdcravens wrote: post #6
nicholas73 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's personally weird to me that auto loans can be a serious bubble, since I would not feel comfortable buying a car unless I have 10x the sticker price in spare cash, or free cash flow that covers it. Seriously, since it's just a depreciating asset with maintenance liabilities.

I'm sure you know you are the exception. About 85% of all new vehicles are purchased on credit; the US is approaching $1T in auto loan debt.

1.1 trillion, a number that actually surprised me. According to this article, auto loans are "the second-fastest growing consumer debt market" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/allan-smith/the-us-auto-loan-d...

Re: Ask HN: What is the next bubble in your opinion?

#17

Post by rorykoehler »

kylehotchkiss wrote: post #7
jdavis703 wrote: post #2

I think there's a lot of bad auto loans out there. I just bought a new vehicle, and when applying for the loan I couldn't fill out half of the required information (I didn't have it readily at hand). The business office person just kept saying "that's OK, just skip that part." All in all they had barely enough information to let me prove I was who said I was, much less that I could repay the loan. This behavior remin…

It's pretty easy to repo a car all around the country if you don't pay your bill. Add in the fact that most new cars sell with GPS transmitters built in and many car loans are provided by the car company themselves and you've got yourself a quick way to recover losses. It's harder for a bank to evict a tenant of a mortgage, harder for a bank to get money from a graduate who is buried in debt, harder for a credit card…

What use is a recovery if liquidating it will get only a fraction of the loan's value back?

Re: Ask HN: What is the next bubble in your opinion?

#18

Post by 0xcde4c3db »

It might not be the next bubble (rather next decade's bubble), and not as big as the mortgage securities bubble, but I have my eye on siloed social media in general and Facebook in particular.

I don't know exactly how or when the federated/web-of-trust alternative to Facebook will unfold, but people are definitely working on commoditizing this stuff, and doing so in an unassuming way that has the potential to catch major players by surprise when it finally crystallizes. I'm not convinced that any of XMPP, GNU Social/OStatus, diaspora*, or IRCv3 have all the pieces to solve the puzzle, but the direction they're pulling is not a big mystery, and I consider it a very real possibility that a successor to those efforts does to Facebook what HTML5 did to Flash.

Re: Ask HN: What is the next bubble in your opinion?

#20

Post by [deleted] »

bdcravens wrote: post #8

> We had quite a dramatic elections in the US. > Since we have computer literate people, founders, risk takers, entrepreneurs, intelligent people on this site, I want to know what do you think is going to be next bubble? I'd argue that "we" are pretty ignorant of what's really going on. (see the recent presidential election) We live in a world of fast Internet, current-gen personal devices, and Instabizzes that make…

[deleted]
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