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Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

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Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#191

Post by seizethecheese »

saosebastiao wrote: post #174
nostrademons wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dunno if you live in Silicon Valley, but here in the Mountain View / Sunnyvale area, they absolutely do drive the same miles that humans drive, in the same conditions. There is about the same chance that you'll see a WayMo self-driving car on your trip as that you'll see a VW Bug, perhaps slightly higher. There's a significantly higher chance than seeing a Tesla or McLaren, even though both of those marques are quite…

By virtue of the typical working hours of engineers alone, they are unlikely to drive in the same conditions, roads, and traffic as normal drivers. Their operating hours skew heavily towards driving in city traffic during non rush hours. They skew heavily away from driving at night, during rush hour, during lunch times, and during extreme weather events. I would also feel comfortable assuming that even if they put an…

> [T]hey would still skew away from scenarios that engineers find boring. Good luck getting them to drive in 2mph stop and go on 880 or 101 during rush hour

I doubt this is because engineers would find it boring. Probably just bad PR to be seen increasing traffic for your experiment.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#192

Post by fullshark »

Tiktaalik wrote: post #125

No mention of pedestrians, cyclists, or how cars (self driving or otherwise) affect the urban realm. So much of the self driving discussion seems to be wholly about the automobile technology in a bubble, with near zero thought put into the impacts on people, cities and society. The fact that the idea of signal less intersections, a concept that ignores the existence of pedestrians and cyclists entirely, is even a poi…

This article obviously punted on that question but that gets talked about constantly imo.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#193

Post by TeMPOraL »

sgustard wrote: post #89
Fricken wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would much rather you didn't place so emphasis on the control premium. The cumulative effect of everybody pursuing their self interest with no regard for the sanctity of our shared spaces has been resoundingly bad. It's the tragedy of the commons in a nutshell. With personal automobiles we've already completely jumped the shark. People travel from all over the world to visit cities like Paris, but I can't think of…

Hm, to me the "on demand" economy, which Uber and the like are part of, is the ultimate pursuit of self-interest. The entire model is built on getting exactly what you want when you want it, with no downsides. Once there are robot cars there is no longer a limit to how many cars can be on the road. Imagine one car zipping around for every Amazon delivery, 24 by 7.

There are more and less naïve ways of pursuing self-interest. Or maybe I should use the word greedy, because it's effectively a synonym here. Owning a bunch of cars (or hammers) so that you can use them whenever you need is one strategy; efficiently sharing them with everyone else so that there's always one available when you need it is another.

For fulfilling needs that most people have, sharing can indeed be a more efficient solution than owning - especially if the good itself is expensive to make (with "expensive" including also energy use and environmental impact).

Now, if you absolutely, positively need to own something because you like ownership itself, then that's a need sharing won't address - but that's a need society will always have to fight against in more extreme cases, because no matter how wealthy the world is, one can always invent something to own that's beyond the society's ability to provide sustainably to everyone.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#194

Post by shuntress »

ghaff wrote: post #110
alkonaut wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we will soon be in a situation where self driving cars are better than humans for 10% of driving scenarios(highway, gridlock commute, some parking, ...) but nearly useless in others. I think the acceptance for half decent AI will be much lower than it is for poor human drivers, and the hardest parts of autonomous driving is still a very long way out. That's probably fine though, if the automation can reliably…

>if the automation can reliably discover when the environment changes. That sounds about right. The ability to read/write/etc. while driving on the highway would actually be a huge win for a lot of people. And, equally important, it seems achievable in, perhaps, a single digit number of years. But there would need to be an unambiguous mode change from "you can do Facebook now" to "you're driving" with plenty of time…

On the highway on-ramp you engage auto pilot. When you are 5,2, and 1/4 mile away from the off ramp you get a warning that auto pilot is preparing to disengage.

If you do not accept and manually turn off auto-pilot, it slows down safely to a stop in the break-down lane.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#195

Post by seanmcdirmid »

agumonkey wrote: post #131
Tiktaalik wrote: post #125

No mention of pedestrians, cyclists, or how cars (self driving or otherwise) affect the urban realm. So much of the self driving discussion seems to be wholly about the automobile technology in a bubble, with near zero thought put into the impacts on people, cities and society. The fact that the idea of signal less intersections, a concept that ignores the existence of pedestrians and cyclists entirely, is even a poi…

It's not zero. Lots of SDV talks mentioned impact of society altogether. Less crowded roads since cars could drive outside of rush hours. Different parking spot locations.

Not even that, but forget America for a second and think china. Overloaded roads, horrible traffic and pollution, chaos, immature driving culture with a much higher accident rate, parking as an extremely scarce commodity, ride sharing/taxis already very common, and, most importantly, an authoritarian government who can change the rules overnight.

Driving actually doesn't suck that bad in the states, even in crowded cities like LA, but self driving cars could be transformative in a city like Beijing.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#196

Post by TeMPOraL »

subpixel wrote: post #188
pif wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Copying form an old comment of mine: - Yielding to an emergency vehicle with sirens on. - Moving backwards to a safe and large enough spot when the route is too narrow to fit self-driving car and oncoming huge lorry (and there is no line marking the limit between road and ravine). - Upon instructions from authority, recognize that the highway is closed due to an accident and, no matter what the driving code says, you…

I'd add: - disincentivizing investment and innovation in public transit

Shared SDVs is the ultimate public transit system.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#197

Post by agumonkey »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #195
agumonkey wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not zero. Lots of SDV talks mentioned impact of society altogether. Less crowded roads since cars could drive outside of rush hours. Different parking spot locations.

Not even that, but forget America for a second and think china. Overloaded roads, horrible traffic and pollution, chaos, immature driving culture with a much higher accident rate, parking as an extremely scarce commodity, ride sharing/taxis already very common, and, most importantly, an authoritarian government who can change the rules overnight. Driving actually doesn't suck that bad in the states, even in crowded c…

Good point, I admit having a very egocentric POV on the matter, I mostly picture things in Europe and US ... There are a lot of places elsewhere. That said, it's probable that EU and US will be the first markets to take off. Japan, China, India soon after.

Also outside of cities, isolated places, if SD kits are affordable could enjoy regular refill.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#198

Post by TeMPOraL »

justin66 wrote: post #101
losteverything wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is all gut. No data. No logic. Cars == freedom. Freedom == control Freedom as in own Geographic control. When. Where and how we get places with that freedom. We control our freedom. Before furnaces we burned wood. Furnaces helped. We accepted them. But cars are different. An extension and expression of our freedom. Out health. Cars have been our best (& worst sometimes) friend as we used our freedoms. There is no…

> Risking the loss Is where my gut says people will fight this. I imagine there will be a fight, but it will be completed a lot quicker than people anticipate. For seniors and disabled people unable to safely operate a motor vehicle, the benefits of self-driving vehicles are huge. Those people care about their freedom as well, and they're well represented.

I think insurance premiums will resolve this fight very quickly. Freedom to pay less for a car trumps freedom to drive the car yourself.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#199

Post by 1888franklin »

btrask wrote: post #164

> Four-way lights suck and if the cars can talk to each other and are fully autonomous why can’t we get rid of lights. This may sound very chaotic at first but hey, aren’t internet packets moving the same way? "Sorry, your car has been dropped due to congestion. Please retransmit."

LOL at that line. The answer is no, no they are not. Always lovely to handwave at another "magic" technology when trying to explain a completely different one.

Re: Let’s Talk About Self-Driving Cars

#200

Post by TeMPOraL »

FrancoDiaz wrote: post #168
dclowd9901 wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And aliens could come from space and take over our planet. What's your point?

You know my point, you just don't like it. It's far from a stretch of the imagination to see a future where the government essentially has a kill-switch for most roads.

It already has - as long as police and military still follows orders, they can blockade any road or set of roads at will, very quickly.
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