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Dropbox Could Have One of 2017’s Most Interesting IPOs

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Re: Dropbox Could Have One of 2017’s Most Interesting IPOs

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I pay $100/year for Pro. Cheaper and easier to have 1TB of remote storage than SD cards, USB sticks, etc, and no excessive bandwidth charges such that AWS has. EDIT: I don't care if my files are encrypted. EDIT 2: Dropbox sync is rock solid. Every experience with the Google Drive sync client has been trash. I can (and do) pay for convenience.

Any reason that you use it over Google Drive?

[deleted]

Re: Dropbox Could Have One of 2017’s Most Interesting IPOs

#32
post #22

I talked to a friend just before Christmas whose firm made a good portion of their returns on the insight that VC firms, IPO participants and the market in general all have gaps in how they evaluate the worth of a company and the fact that this gap has grown significantly in the past 5 years. Previously, companies went public much sooner and you could expect a match, not an exact one, but in the same ball park, betwe…

I've gone through 6 startup IPOs since 1999 in the valley, and have watched as it went from a way to reward employees to a whole lot of voodoo bullshit. I'm a little stunned when I see people still talking about the startups they work for and possibly making it big - that doesn't happen anymore. You are being lied to.

if the founder(s) of the company got really rich, but the company is still owned by VCs, there is almost definitely "voodoo bullshit" going on.

it's customary to take some money to alleviate the everyday financial stresses of life and to maybe buy a decent house because people have families, but the original intent behind the IPO was designed to align everyone's incentives. when they aren't aligned i.e. when there is a super-class of owners that already cashed out, it's going to end badly for the people who aren't in control.

everyone who got in early is already rich or completely exited, and more idiots keep piling onto the funding rounds... hmm... what does that sound like?

Re: Dropbox Could Have One of 2017’s Most Interesting IPOs

#33

Dropbox is one of those products that is just a pleasure to use (like Stripe). Sync works seamlessly. I've tried all other alternatives and gotten back to being a paid customer of Dropbox. I think it also boils down to most of your employees being passionate, smart folks from MIT, CMU and the like. Good luck to them with the IPO.

I was initially ecstatic about Dropbox, but they seem to be at best stagnant in terms of functionality.

It was my solution for having access to all my photos on all devices, but then they canceled Carousel with the promise that its functionality would be rolled into the main app. That hasn't happened. The photos feature on iOS is pathetically limited, with slow loading times, no way to organize photos (you can't even access albums you create on desktop), and inadequate sync functionality. The web client isn't much better. What exactly are all those engineers doing with their time?

I am increasingly wary of Google, and do not wish to give them all of my photos. What solutions am I left with? I don't feel like my asks are a tall order for a company of Dropbox's size. I basically want what the old Picasa desktop app provided, except synchronized between all my devices.

I can't possibly be the only one with this problem: an ever-growing library of photos and videos, scattered across various phones, DSLRs and computers with the need to organize them and share them easily. I am happy to pay.

Re: Dropbox Could Have One of 2017’s Most Interesting IPOs

#34
As a former Dropbox user, I can't imagine investing in them. For me, their plans are just way out of line with regard to pricing. So out of line that I'm going to go to the trouble of moving all of my stuff to Google Drive or OneDrive. And I hate their ransom policy of giving you free space for a while due to phone promotions or whatever and then taking it away. You are screwed and can't access your own stuff until you pay the ransom. I just don't think a company formed on those sorts of policies and pricing strategies is a good investment.

Re: Dropbox Could Have One of 2017’s Most Interesting IPOs

#35

I talked to a friend just before Christmas whose firm made a good portion of their returns on the insight that VC firms, IPO participants and the market in general all have gaps in how they evaluate the worth of a company and the fact that this gap has grown significantly in the past 5 years. Previously, companies went public much sooner and you could expect a match, not an exact one, but in the same ball park, betwe…

> GAAP analysis usually assigns a revenue multiple to a company that is based on its sector and assumed growth

GAAP is an accounting framework [1]. It defines, for example, how one may and may not recognise revenues [2].

GAAP does not tell investors how to value a company. "GAAP Analysis" isn't a thing (gap analysis is [3], but that's a management tool).

That said, yes, public-company investors tend to look at Revenue, EBITDA or P/E multiples. But so do late-stage VCs. Both ascribe high valuations when expected growth provides for it, e.g. Amazon or Tesla or Uber.

A multiple gap has emerged between the late-stage private company market (at least at the top end) and comptable public companies. But it has nothing to do with "GAAP analysis" (which isn't a thing) or mezzanine funding (which most VC-backed companies don't take on).

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generally_accepted_accountin...

[2] http://www.fasb.org/jsp/FASB/Page/BridgePage%26cid=135102720...

[3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gap_analysis

Re: Dropbox Could Have One of 2017’s Most Interesting IPOs

#37
post #33

Dropbox is one of those products that is just a pleasure to use (like Stripe). Sync works seamlessly. I've tried all other alternatives and gotten back to being a paid customer of Dropbox. I think it also boils down to most of your employees being passionate, smart folks from MIT, CMU and the like. Good luck to them with the IPO.

I was initially ecstatic about Dropbox, but they seem to be at best stagnant in terms of functionality. It was my solution for having access to all my photos on all devices, but then they canceled Carousel with the promise that its functionality would be rolled into the main app. That hasn't happened. The photos feature on iOS is pathetically limited, with slow loading times, no way to organize photos (you can't even…

Why should a photo app be integrated into a filesystem? That sounds like bad engineering to me. And also like a bad value-proposition.

A filesystem should be just that, a filesystem. And thirdparty apps should be able to use it to store pictures and such.

Re: Dropbox Could Have One of 2017’s Most Interesting IPOs

#38
The fact that Dropbox's revenue is well above Box's if the rumors in the article are true is a great positive sign. As is being cash flow positive which would indicate that if they are burning cash it isn't at the rate of 2x revenue that Box has been a victim of.

However, the vision they are selling will not come to pass. That of them being a collaborative platform. Google docs, slack, and a myriad of other tools have already taken that place and there isn't a large enough disruption in Dropbox to unseat that.

In the meantime Dropbox's core offering of syncing and sharing files seamlessly as well as providing more security minded options for businesses is something that no one else has quite gotten right.

Box targeted the high-end enterprise users and Dropbox ceded that market to them rather early on. But the massive number of individual users coupled with SMBs that do not need the complexity that Box entails is a large market. The only question is are those two markets combined larger than the enterprise market that Box is chasing.

According to the revenue reported it seems that currently on the revenue side it is.

And given that investors do value profitability and with only a 200 sales person team their burn should be within controllable limits should make them overall both on the profitability and revenue side more attractive than Box.

However if they grew revenue from $400 -> $750 they simply do not have the growth trajectory that gets Wall St excited because due to their maturity and larger revenue you get a more consistent view point into their future growth.

Then again if they are compared more to Atlassian that is trading at 10x revenue then they certainly maybe get justified in their close to $10B private valuation.

Re: Dropbox Could Have One of 2017’s Most Interesting IPOs

#39
post #33

Dropbox is one of those products that is just a pleasure to use (like Stripe). Sync works seamlessly. I've tried all other alternatives and gotten back to being a paid customer of Dropbox. I think it also boils down to most of your employees being passionate, smart folks from MIT, CMU and the like. Good luck to them with the IPO.

I was initially ecstatic about Dropbox, but they seem to be at best stagnant in terms of functionality. It was my solution for having access to all my photos on all devices, but then they canceled Carousel with the promise that its functionality would be rolled into the main app. That hasn't happened. The photos feature on iOS is pathetically limited, with slow loading times, no way to organize photos (you can't even…

For your usecase, Prime Photos [1] from Amazon, where they meld the traditional album and folder metaphors with auto-classifying ML -- the latter which you can luckily turn off if it creeps you out, unlike with Google.

But this is an under-served market and many people would pay to some paltry amount a month to have their family photos (or professional photographs) kept safe in the Cloud. Unfortunately most cloud storage providers are chasing the (presumably much more lucrative) enterprise market with document-editing and office-y features.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/photos/home

Re: Dropbox Could Have One of 2017’s Most Interesting IPOs

#40
post #37
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was initially ecstatic about Dropbox, but they seem to be at best stagnant in terms of functionality. It was my solution for having access to all my photos on all devices, but then they canceled Carousel with the promise that its functionality would be rolled into the main app. That hasn't happened. The photos feature on iOS is pathetically limited, with slow loading times, no way to organize photos (you can't even…

Why should a photo app be integrated into a filesystem? That sounds like bad engineering to me. And also like a bad value-proposition. A filesystem should be just that, a filesystem. And thirdparty apps should be able to use it to store pictures and such.

What are your recommendations for a fast, intuitive, portable third-party solution that uses Dropbox as a data store for my use case?

Edit: While separating these concerns (storage and presentation) is a solid software engineering approach, without open standards it would seem to just add additional layers of vendor lock-in and brittleness. Syncing to local storage is a non-starter for mobile.

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