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How to Validate Demand for Your Product – Part 2

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Re: How to Validate Demand for Your Product – Part 2

#11
While this is not how validating demand works, I take issue more with the title of this blog post than its content. The techniques described are not necessarily wrong nor are they anything new nor even that useful. I'm not trying to knock this guy's hustle, but the headline is misleading.

With that said, the article is less relevant mainly because different products and startup ideas have totally different ways of validating them.

(eg How do you validate a new CRM SaaS product side project vs. validating starting a company like Hyperloop vs starting an "Uber for skydiving for dogs" company...? Not the same things at all.

Some folks may disagree and of course this is not always possible (usually due to budget?), but in my experience if you are serious about a product or startup idea then hiring a professional to do proper market/customer research is worth the cost, just as hiring a lawyer to do initial trademark research and handle corporate paperwork (employee docs, investor contracts etc.) is worth the cost.

Hiring a professional market research firm is cheaper than a lawyer. Start with it. But if you don't have the money, then any pro help is better than nothing. I am not a market researcher and I am just sharing my 2 cents and what I have seen.

Maybe because market research doesn't need a special license/degree like lawyers need or maybe because demand research looks easy to newbie from a distance, people think they can do it themselves. Most can't, and it's usually hubris to think you can or survivorship bias from startups that pulled it off. It will cost you in the vast majority of cases. There's always exceptions. Come visit NYC or Los Angeles and see the 10 million struggling arrogant writers who thought they could just write a successful movie script or book right away and didn't realize that professional experienced writers have skills they do not. Look into the "flop rate" of new products from companies that hire a professional market researcher compared to startup failure rates and it's clear that incorrect or lack of research is often a major problem. Good luck and happy new year.

Re: How to Validate Demand for Your Product – Part 2

#12

This is just shilling for a marketing course, using the same technique (sell vaporware, build it out if there's interest) that it describes at tedious length.

Well he just clearly demonstrated the effectiveness of his marketing technique. If he can provide useful information, and gain advertising at the same time, I don't see the problem. It's a win/win.

Re: How to Validate Demand for Your Product – Part 2

#14
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's certainly one way of looking at it. I calculate conversion rate based on the number of people that hit the course page. That's industry standard. My goal was to test how many people that read about my course signed up. The blog post drives traffic to the home page, but I don't count blog readers if they don't hit the home page because that wouldn't be testing the right metric. Conversion rates vary by business…

Don't those companies have established business models they are simply repeating at a profitable level? I think all you have shown is HN is a source of extremely ineffective marketing for that idea. Your "what's next" seems premature too because HN can't get you "10x more traffic" and even a 10x better conversion will still be barely 1 registration per thousand visitors. Tomorrow your old front page posts will send y…

I'm confused how $900 in my first week isn't closer to sustainable? What would be?

Re: How to Validate Demand for Your Product – Part 2

#15

I'm curious, is not linking part-1 of the post part of the strategy too? Of course one could spend a click & scroll to find it, but still was it intended ?

Oops! The link was there but my formatting is set up so it doesn't underline. Bug I need to fix.. thanks for the heads up

Re: How to Validate Demand for Your Product – Part 2

#16

This is just shilling for a marketing course, using the same technique (sell vaporware, build it out if there's interest) that it describes at tedious length.

Well he just clearly demonstrated the effectiveness of his marketing technique. If he can provide useful information, and gain advertising at the same time, I don't see the problem. It's a win/win.

The problem is it has nothing to do with making a product. It's gift wrap all the way down.

Re: How to Validate Demand for Your Product – Part 2

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't those companies have established business models they are simply repeating at a profitable level? I think all you have shown is HN is a source of extremely ineffective marketing for that idea. Your "what's next" seems premature too because HN can't get you "10x more traffic" and even a 10x better conversion will still be barely 1 registration per thousand visitors. Tomorrow your old front page posts will send y…

I'm confused how $900 in my first week isn't closer to sustainable? What would be?

So far you've extrapolated everything from getting to the front page of HN once, but the more you do that the more their software learns who's helping you with upvotes even as you wear out your welcome in the community. That's not sustainable.

I think you could convince 13 people amongst a group of 15,863 to buy just about anything and that doesn't really prove demand either.

What would be sustainable is finding something that still delivers registrations/customers/money next week when your HN posts are unpopular and it's all tapped out. Somewhere that can actually deliver on the 10x more traffic you aspire to have next and thus worth optimizing your sales funnels for.

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