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‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

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Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#161

Post by Ensorceled »

uiri wrote: post #113
Ensorceled wrote: post #65

There are a fair number of comments dismissing this issue with a "retrain or get left behind" and expressing not a lot of sympathy for those who don't. Remember, the average IQ in the US is just below 100[1]. Exactly what kind of jobs do you expect to retrain these people for? And how are they equipped to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps? Most of these jobs provided on the job training or apprenticeships so…

the average IQ in the US is just below 100 This represents a fundamental misunderstanding of IQ as a measurement. IQ is defined as a normal distribution with a median of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. The average IQ in the US is 100 for any IQ test calibrated to measure the US population. No absolute statements regarding intelligence can be made on the basis of IQs; only relative statements about how an individu…

This completely misses my point as I'm only using IQ as a stand in for cognitive abilities, cognitive abilities that are required to retrain and function in non-repetitive occupations.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#162

Post by VLM »

douche wrote: post #27
lordCarbonFiber wrote: post #4

This is, for society at the very least, a "good thing". Who's dream is it to perform a "relatively narrow set of repeated tasks" for 8 hours a day? As mentioned, take these "prime aged workers" teach them skills, and suddenly we have a spike in actually valuable labour instead of a middle class of unfulfilled office drones stuck in a stupor. IMO, the framing should be look at this amazing business opportunity to onbo…

That's fine if you have an average or above IQ. There's a lot of people that don't, and no manner of training is going to rectify that hole they start in, especially with everybody else pulling ahead at the same or greater rate. Manufacturing used to be a solid living for those who were none-too-bright but capable of semi-skilled drudge work for 8-12 hours a day. More and more, those people are getting left out in th…

The classic reply to that is if those jobs were still available, we'd have to give up all our post 1950s technology.

You starve people enough, hunger drives some interesting responses. If keeping your iphone means watching your kid die, lots of people will totally go for some kind of neo-Amish 1950s revival. Or just go full on Amish. Currently the Amish standard of living is somewhat higher than the general population and that is only going to increase in the future as the median standard of living continues to decline with technological "progress" and environmental change, while the Amish hold relatively constant, which is going to drive lots of recruitment.

If you give a choice of living under a bridge while starving in iphone-land or being a successful carpenter in Amish-land, well, kinda a no brainer choice there...

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#163

Post by douche »

throwaway45321 wrote: post #137
nickff wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Job training and retraining programs don't work very well, which is why you see so many interviews with people who have done 5-10 of them. There are a number of studies that show this, and none (that I am aware of) which demonstrate good efficacy (and I would expect the programs to trumpet the latter result). Perhaps some sort of improved retraining program would work, but I don't think we should be dumping money int…

> as I believe that skilled jobs help the worker lead a happier, more fulfilling life, as well as helping the people who benefit from the work product I can't really speak to the second assertion here, but I wanted to chime in from the other side of the first. I'm a mid level developer (late twenties) and if I could find a job that was 'routine' that paid what I make now, and kept me from having to deal with the publ…

Seriously. If I could find somebody who would pay me what I make now to dig ditches or cut trees, I'd be gone so fast your head would spin.

Mankind was not made to sit in asinine status meetings and conduct email wars day in and day out.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#164

Post by TheCoelacanth »

uiri wrote: post #113
Ensorceled wrote: post #65

There are a fair number of comments dismissing this issue with a "retrain or get left behind" and expressing not a lot of sympathy for those who don't. Remember, the average IQ in the US is just below 100[1]. Exactly what kind of jobs do you expect to retrain these people for? And how are they equipped to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps? Most of these jobs provided on the job training or apprenticeships so…

the average IQ in the US is just below 100 This represents a fundamental misunderstanding of IQ as a measurement. IQ is defined as a normal distribution with a median of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. The average IQ in the US is 100 for any IQ test calibrated to measure the US population. No absolute statements regarding intelligence can be made on the basis of IQs; only relative statements about how an individu…

By that argument my IQ is 100 because I have the median score of the population consisting of myself. Of course, when using an IQ test calibrated for a larger population, my IQ is something different. Similarly, it makes perfect sense for the average IQ of a country to be different from 100 when using a test calibrated for a population that is a superset of the country's population.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#165

Post by uiri »

hamandcheese wrote: post #140
uiri wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the average IQ in the US is just below 100 This represents a fundamental misunderstanding of IQ as a measurement. IQ is defined as a normal distribution with a median of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. The average IQ in the US is 100 for any IQ test calibrated to measure the US population. No absolute statements regarding intelligence can be made on the basis of IQs; only relative statements about how an individu…

It's meaningful in this context, since, chances are, those commenting here have a much higher IQ than 100.

By definition, 50% of the population has an IQ between 90 and 110. While it is plausible that there is a disproportionately low number of HN commenters in the bottom quartile for IQ, I believe that the majority, if not the plurality, of HN commenters will fall in the range of (90, 110).

35% of the US population over 25 has a Bachelor's degree. Assuming that, say, the top 40% in IQ of the total population is capable of completing such a degree and that HN commenters are a randomly distributed subset of that population, that would leave a lower bound for IQ of 104 and a median IQ of 113.

The reality is that IQ is unlikely to be the limiting factor when it comes to whether or not it is possible to retrain large portions of the working population.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#166

Post by VLM »

knieveltech wrote: post #121
ams6110 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. There's a maximum value on the worth of programming work, as defined by the demand for the product the programmers are producing. It's the flip side of why high minimum wages cause more unemployment. Some work activities are just not worth $15/hr.

That high minimum wages cause more unemployment is not a settled question, and there is research that suggests that this is, in fact, a myth.

That sounds rather unlikely. What would prevent the result of dividing revenue by hours worked from falling between 8 and perhaps 14? In quantum physics there's lots of hand waving, some of it true, about inaccessible states and distinct energy levels and such, but no explanation how that could apply to revenue numbers or timeclock numbers or the division operator or some mysterious combination.

There might be a very local substitute effect where in a small enough area part of a large enough system, almost any arbitrary value can be applied and it'll be filled, as long as its a small enough area and a large enough system. Along the lines of 10000000 monkeys on typewriters might not produce Shakespeare anytime soon but you can expect the occasional short English language word in that stream fairly often.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#167

Post by kwhitefoot »

Lots of talk about retraining in these comments. All the retraining in the world isn't going to help in a society where the work is not actually needed to produce the goods we consume.

We need to stop valuing people by what they do and start providing for people regardless of what they do. And you can do this secure in the knowledge that you do it out of pure self interest because if you don't an underclass will come into being on a scale not seen since feudal time and the people in it will have little to lose by being disruptive and violently rebellious.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#168

Post by pasquinelli »

kwhitefoot wrote: post #148
tptacek wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The prejudice and stereotyping here is ridiculous, but honestly, I think something that needs to happen (for a variety of reasons) is for the term "nurse" to be retired, and replaced with something like "medical associate". The nursing profession is extraordinarily important, and we underutilize it in this country. Most of us should be talking to "nurses" much more frequently than we do, and much more often than we t…

What's wrong with nurse? It has a quite specific meaning. Changing it medical associate just makes it less precise. What's needed is for sexism to be eradicated everywhere; changing the names is not going to do that.

i agree that sexism needs to be eradicated everywhere, and i don't honestly believe shuffling terminology is a very significant move, but to be fair the word nurse is a gendered one: besides meaning to care for someone, it also refers to the same general concept in a more specific circumstance, that is, breastfeeding.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#169

Post by stephenbez »

fullshark wrote: post #94
noobiemcfoob wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with your diagnosis, but I fear the knee jerk reaction to solve it with government programs. In my mind, we need to do more lateral thinking on what can make value for the economy and why.

What's a better idea than gov't programs for adult education / job training? Most companies aren't interested in investing the resources to retrain employees unless training lasts a few months at most. Even market solutions will require a lot of gov't interference to work imo (things like job "mortgages" i.e. student loans for adults).

If you are interested in learning more about the history and failure of US job training I recommend "The Job Training Charade".

Essentially it is one of those policies that sounds good and appeals to both sides of the aisle. However decades of experience with different programs has shown it doesn't work.

There is even a study mentioned in the book showing a statistically significant negative impact of job training on employment.

https://www.amazon.com/Training-Charade-Collection-Technolog...

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#170

Post by pasquinelli »

knieveltech wrote: post #38
aylons wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And for a welding operator to become a physical therapist is an even larger leap. Also, there's also a lot of resistance (and prejudice) in going from blue-collar to pink-collar, partly because care and health services are seem as feminine jobs(except doctors, of course).

Hard to have much sympathy for someone who's strangling themselves with their own gender stereotypes.

it may be hard but you should do it. everyone is hurt by misogyny, not just women, and often it's through a narrowing what is seen as possible.
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