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‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

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Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#61

Welding is not a routine job. Good welders make pretty good money.

Welding is also just about the least middle-class job I can think of.

That's only true if you define "middle-class" as white collar. Welders make decent money, 35-60k on average for bog standard fabrication work. Easy to double those figures working for the oil and gas industries. Welders that can cert to Nuclear industry standards can easily triple those figure, and underwater welders can make over $300k in a year.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#62

"To counter these trends, the U.S. must invest in raising the skills of the workers most likely to be affected by the disappearance of routine jobs..." Not sure how's that going to play out for example a welding machine operator can't become a mechanical engineer in a short span of time because those routine jobs are eventually going to be consumed by automated robots, per this study. Why not motivate people to look…

You are exactly right. Who is going to take care of all these people as they age? (Huge problem in Japan right now. They are basically paying people to have kids because they know they'll be needing population to fill that role). People taking care of other people is going to be harder to automate than shipping and logistics. But still there is going to be cost/wage differences between companions vs light nursing (shower, etc.) vs full nursing .... You can't pay a high school graduate the same as a CPRN, and they have different skills/applications.

The middle class is based on a mostly unskilled workers making a great wage because they are producing things that people will pay even more for. Automation has killed that future dream and is rapidly killing what remains of it.

I agree that it makes no sense to turn a welder into a mechanical engineer. The best we can do in the short term is turn them into robot mechanics but that is just buying time (although maybe a long time). Eventually, we have to re-evaluate what life is, can be or should be. I find this future fascinating and terrifying.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#63
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably dead nothing and then blame liberals and Mexicans again in 4 years when everything has got worse.

You assume that blame would be misplaced? Liberals tossed workers and organized labor overboard ~30 years ago: http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/11/23/yes-democratic-...

I would assume that the Democrats (as a non-American, what's up with calling them 'liberals'?) being out of power for four years will make them literally incapable of being why Trump fails to solve these problems.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#64
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand the reasoning here, like, at all. For decades now researchers have been pointing out the demographic issues of aging populations and the workforces required to care for them. I don't know the specific numbers, but they're doubtless enormous. Why wouldn't they be a significant part of the economy?

Not the above poster, but their point appears to be that caring for the elderly doesn't CONTRIBUTE to the economy (i.e. as a transaction it adds to GDP, but in terms of value-creation it's near zilch. So while a blue-collar worker might add value by creating a product, an elder care worker adds only humanitarian benefit. (And unlike a doctor that can help those blue collar workers continue to work, there isn't even m…

That was the "logic" I took from that comment too, but it still doesn't make any sense. We spend money on all sorts of things that don't "contribute" (in this weird, narrow sense) to the economy. But of course, most things we spend money on do in fact contribute to the economy: the money goes into the pockets of the people providing the service, who go on to buy things with that money and fuel the economy.

That's what I meant when I said I didn't understand the reasoning of the comment --- like, at all, even a little bit.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#65
There are a fair number of comments dismissing this issue with a "retrain or get left behind" and expressing not a lot of sympathy for those who don't.

Remember, the average IQ in the US is just below 100[1]. Exactly what kind of jobs do you expect to retrain these people for? And how are they equipped to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps?

Most of these jobs provided on the job training or apprenticeships so it's not even a matter of "they did it once they can do it again".

Also, many are battling obesity and related illnesses such as diabetes or struggling with mental illness and/or addiction.

We need a systemic overhaul of the economic system and soon. Self driving vehicles will put 3-5 million out of work in the next decade.

[1] https://iq-research.info/en/page/average-iq-by-country#

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#66

This is, for society at the very least, a "good thing". Who's dream is it to perform a "relatively narrow set of repeated tasks" for 8 hours a day? As mentioned, take these "prime aged workers" teach them skills, and suddenly we have a spike in actually valuable labour instead of a middle class of unfulfilled office drones stuck in a stupor. IMO, the framing should be look at this amazing business opportunity to onbo…

Now you have a glut of skilled workers all chasing the few remaining well-paid jobs, and driving down their wages in the process.

Plus you still have a huge mass of unemployed people who ended up in those jobs because they lacked either the aptitude of temperament to gain skills in the first place, or are too old, poor or poorly situated to take advantage of the opportunity now.

Soon, due to the dearth of people employed, and the shrinking wages of the minority who are, there is no longer enough people left with money to buy most goods and services. As a result, businesses start to shut down, exacerbating unemployment and sending the economy into a contractionary death spiral.

Yes, in a healthy job market, people will gradually retrain and relocate in order to fill demand. But what we're talking about here is a total breakdown in the jobs market, to the point where it becomes non-functional.

It's the difference between supply problems causing the prices of a few foodstuffs to rise, and an unending drought that destroys harvests year after year. The market can cope with the first, but not the second. The result will be famine and mass starvation.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#67
post #31

"To counter these trends, the U.S. must invest in raising the skills of the workers most likely to be affected by the disappearance of routine jobs..." Not sure how's that going to play out for example a welding machine operator can't become a mechanical engineer in a short span of time because those routine jobs are eventually going to be consumed by automated robots, per this study. Why not motivate people to look…

Healthcare is not immune from Automation either. there is huge efforts underway to replace Doctors, Nurses, etc with AI.

The current demand for healthcare is just phenomenal, with the supply barely meeting it in developed countries, and not so much in developing countries. Automation will most likely make it possible to have better skill division. e.g. a heart surgeon from the US could operate on a patient in Gambia, remotely. It seems unlikely that AI/automation would replace the surgeon altogether, at least in the next couple of decades (perhaps in the next 100 years, if we don't manage to kill of our species).

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#68

"To counter these trends, the U.S. must invest in raising the skills of the workers most likely to be affected by the disappearance of routine jobs..." Not sure how's that going to play out for example a welding machine operator can't become a mechanical engineer in a short span of time because those routine jobs are eventually going to be consumed by automated robots, per this study. Why not motivate people to look…

elder-care cannot possibly be a solid basis for the economy. they are not in their working years and are not (on the average) contributing positive sums to GDP or tax revenue. there is a humanitarian case to be made for improved quality of life for elderly people, but I can't imagine that there is a reasonable economic case to be made for it, unless you're arguing that the elder-care industry is just an elaborate sub…

If those 'elders' lives can be meanginfdly improved with care, than the resulting GDP from their payment to service providers is as 'productive' to society than anything else.

What the hell is the economy for otherwise?

Most of the economy is not based things that grow the pie massively like 'new energy forms' and 'more powerful computers' etc..

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#69

This is, for society at the very least, a "good thing". Who's dream is it to perform a "relatively narrow set of repeated tasks" for 8 hours a day? As mentioned, take these "prime aged workers" teach them skills, and suddenly we have a spike in actually valuable labour instead of a middle class of unfulfilled office drones stuck in a stupor. IMO, the framing should be look at this amazing business opportunity to onbo…

>>Who's dream is it to perform a "relatively narrow set of repeated tasks" for 8 hours a day?

No ones, but they also want to eat, have a home, and provide for their offspring

> As mentioned, take these "prime aged workers" teach them skills, and suddenly we have a spike in actually valuable labor instead of a middle class of unfulfilled office drones stuck in a stupor.

What about the people that can not be taught "skills", what about when the machines take over their skills? What about ... 100 other scenarios I can come up with

>the framing should be look at this amazing business opportunity to onboard high value workers, not cautionary doom.

To do what, exactly? No job is safe from automation. To deny the potential for this new wave of automation to create massive poverty is to deny reality.

We have ti adjust how society functions, how we look at labor, and honestly how we look at human rights.

If we do not, if we hold to the same Social Structure of 40 hours a week with minimum amount of pay as possible all that will be is suffering for the majority, because even in this "utopia" where you can take 100% of the lower skilled worker and magically impart upon them more skills all you have done is flood the market with a greater supply of workers for those higher skilled jobs while no increasing the demand for them. Economics 101 tells up that results in a reduction in the price of that labor, so what was once "valuable labor" is no longer valuable.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#70
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And for a welding operator to become a physical therapist is an even larger leap. Also, there's also a lot of resistance (and prejudice) in going from blue-collar to pink-collar, partly because care and health services are seem as feminine jobs(except doctors, of course).

My brother recently finished nursing school. The number of times he got the question, "you're gonna be a male nurse?" ... He had a number of cute responses.

The prejudice and stereotyping here is ridiculous, but honestly, I think something that needs to happen (for a variety of reasons) is for the term "nurse" to be retired, and replaced with something like "medical associate".

The nursing profession is extraordinarily important, and we underutilize it in this country. Most of us should be talking to "nurses" much more frequently than we do, and much more often than we talk to doctors.

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