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$2T in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, AUS, CAN, NL

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Re: $2T in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, AUS, CAN, NL

#81
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What area are you in now and what area were you looking at because your experience really doesn't match up with mine of living in Sydney.

The east (think Kensingington/Kingsford), was in the south last year.

What price range? Mine's around 250, but I haven't checked the innerwest. I mostly like the east because it's close(ish) to the beach and a lot of my uni friends stayed in the east. I could never justify Bondi or even clov, too much money, and the culture is too far up it's own a@@. Coogee is liveable though.

Re: $2T in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, AUS, CAN, NL

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which tax breaks?

Probably negative gearing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_property_bubble#Inf... Edit, better link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_gearing#Australia >Interest on an investment loan for an income producing purpose is fully deductible if the income falls short of the interest payable. The shortfall can be deducted for tax purposes from income from other sources, such as the wage or salary income of th…

Negative gearing is only one piece of the puzzle. There is also a 50% CGT discount if you hold an investment for more than a year.

And yes, it applies to shares too, but it's not possible to get this amount of debt leverage for buying shares.

There is also 100% CGT exemption if the property is owner-occupied. The worst part is that it extends up to 6 years after you move out (e.g. to rent somewhere cheaper). So you can buy a property, live in it for a year (at which point it's deemed primary residence), then rent it out for up to 6 years, move back in for a year, rinse, repeat, and avoid paying any CGT when you sell. Obligatory: none of this is tax advice.

Re: $2T in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, AUS, CAN, NL

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chinese grey money buying whole apartment buildings for investment, which drives up prices The nice thing about housing is that one can easily build a lot more of it, and it makes a great de facto investment: http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/05/19/exporting_hou... . The only thing stopping most municipalities from pursuing this reasonable outcome is politics and resistance from NIMBY incumbent landowners.

No. Those policies are in place because planning makes sense. Not everywhere should be tear down and build up in all conditions. How about the French quarter of New Orleans or historic districts of other cities? This argument always shows up here and is idealistic bs.

Sure. But historic districts are not the majority of zoned land in any city. I mean, the imperial palace gardens remain in the middle of super-dense super-expensive central Tokyo, as do many other historic landmarks and districts in dense cities (and non-historical but significant landmarks too: nobody is removing central park from NYC either).

Actually, an even stronger argument is that, well, cities need more than housing. You need city planning and zoning because huge buildings need commensurate transportation, sanitation and water/power supply infrastructure. But neither this, nor preserving hundred years old historically important districts, are what people complain when they complain about zoning. You can plan for more public infrastructure at the same time you allow lots of new construction. Hell, you can tax the developers of the new buildings to front most of the public infrastructure upgrade costs, then distribute the maintenance over the now expanded population. People complain when a city fails to do this for years even in the face of strong demand pressure, because the lower the supply the more the real state investments of existing owners appreciate in the short term.

Re: $2T in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, AUS, CAN, NL

#84
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People like to rag on Chinese investors, but I think the main reasons are insane tax breaks and limited supply.

Which tax breaks?

As well as negative gearing, there is also the main residence exemption from capital gains tax. Aside from the tax system, residences are also assessed differently from other wealth when determining if someone should receive the old-age pension.

Re: $2T in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, AUS, CAN, NL

#85
BC is by far and away the most impacted region. Let's list some quick housing prices examples:

NL - Amsterdam up 15% in 2016 [-1]

AU - Sydney up 17% over 5 years [0]

NZ - up 13% oct 2015-2016 [1]

BC - Metro Vancouver up 31.4% August 2015-2016 alone. BC (not just vancouver) housing prices have almost tripled since 2004. [2]

No, these new rules the BC government has put in place are not going to work. I've commented on the reasons before here:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12873156

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12215490

[-1] http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Netherlands/Price-...

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_property_bubble

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/the-rich-...

[2] http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/26-slump-in-v...

Re: $2T in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, AUS, CAN, NL

#86
post #81
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The east (think Kensingington/Kingsford), was in the south last year.

What price range? Mine's around 250, but I haven't checked the innerwest. I mostly like the east because it's close(ish) to the beach and a lot of my uni friends stayed in the east. I could never justify Bondi or even clov, too much money, and the culture is too far up it's own a@@. Coogee is liveable though.

I was paying ~$100/week for a 3 share in something called Dalgety Square in Ultimo which was a really nice building. That was close to a decade ago now though but I'd be surprised if it had more than doubled but even if it had it was one of the nicer options in the area so I'm sure there is a lot for less.

Understandable on wanting to stay east. Once I moved east I didn't want to go back but there are definitely options available if you do.

Though I did end up moving to Yamba this year for more space for my money.

Re: $2T in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, AUS, CAN, NL

#87
post #55

This is a relatively big problem in Australia - there has been talk of a housing bubble in Australia for the last few years which in part has been propped up by Chinese grey money buying whole apartment buildings for investment, which drives up prices (they can just dictate prices) and keeps young locals out [1]. I cannot afford a house and I have a well-paying job. The government looks the other way since building i…

In the long term, the bubble is going to pop and then you have dead cities with empty high rises falling apart (but then again, people have been saying for at least 10 years that the bubble is going to pop any day now and it's still inflating) The reason that bubble has not yet popped is because over the last 10 years Oz has generally seen below average GDP growth and year on year deflation, not unlike the rest of th…

OK and what's the failure mode if broad GDP growth remains stagnant, but the narrow real estate market continue to grow and increasingly unobtainable? Does it fail or does it in effect behave as two economies?

Re: $2T in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, AUS, CAN, NL

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because you still have to pay rent - if you could buy, your housing costs would be earning equity.

It's not uncommon for it to be better financially to always rent and just invest the difference between rent and mortgage+maintenance+taxes. With interest first mortgages as they are it is generally a long time before you earn any equity at all.

Well that would be true if things were normal, like 10 years ago. But the rate of return on real estate is much higher than the rate of return of say the S&P 500.

Re: $2T in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, AUS, CAN, NL

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because you still have to pay rent - if you could buy, your housing costs would be earning equity.

It's not uncommon for it to be better financially to always rent and just invest the difference between rent and mortgage+maintenance+taxes. With interest first mortgages as they are it is generally a long time before you earn any equity at all.

Keep in mind that as an individual you cannot have a near-million dollar leverage at a relatively low rate to buy other investments.

Re: $2T in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, AUS, CAN, NL

#90
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand

There are groups of people that seem to think that sacrificing local experience should be shoved aside solely on the basis to add more Housing should be the most important thing.

And it really sucks when more housing is added only to be used as Chinese investments while they sit empty not being used or rented out.
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