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The Middle Class Can't Afford to Live in Cities Anymore

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Re: The Middle Class Can't Afford to Live in Cities Anymore

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inequality is not the problem. The problem is there are more people who want to live somewhere than there are houses. With perfect equality there would still be more people than houses. The one and only fix is more houses. That's it. Any other solution is just picking winners and losers different ways. But no matter which way you pick the same number of people win and the same number lose.

The fix is to make more areas desirable to live in by reducing income inequality and stimulating local economies (which in turn creates more desirable locations). Simply saying build "more houses" in clustered cities along the coasts doesn't solve anything in the long run. Cities are in it for the long run.

San Francisco is not nearly dense enough. It can support a lot more housing. Easily. It's just NIMBYs and cronies in the way.

Despite having significant growth opportunity San Fran is already twice as dense as Seattle. Therefore Seattle has room for explosive housing growth. It would need more changes than just housing of course. But that's to be expected and totally doable.

Cities are huge economic multipliers. We don't need more cities yet. The ones we have are perfectly great! We need to more efficiently use what we already have.

This housing crisis isn't affecting just "top tier" cities. It's not just New York and San Fran. It's Seattle. It's Denver, Austin, and Portland. It's even Nashville!

Every city, top to bottom, needs to be doing more. And they need to start now as the longer they wait the more expensive the infrastructure adjustments become.

Re: The Middle Class Can't Afford to Live in Cities Anymore

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe there's another option; make the cities more attractive (and affordable) to live in for the middle class. You can see this across European cities, which is explained really well in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQSxPzafO_k It's easy to say and hard to do, but concerns like a good neighborhood or decent commute when looking for living arrangements in the cities is definitely not as common in Eu…

The cities are attractive, too attractive, that's why prices are so high. We do not have a demand shortage. We have a supply shortage.

I'd say that every major city across the continents have a supply shortage, that's the nature of cities, but I haven't heard of any city in Europe not affordable to live in for the middle class. Surely the good 'ol supply & demand are influencing the pricing, but I believe there must be something external that has caused this.

Re: The Middle Class Can't Afford to Live in Cities Anymore

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be interested to hear more about why you think two kids is "excessive".

Me too. Sounds like the typically short-sighted drivel heard from those who think a smaller, or declining, population is a good thing. Usually it comes from a "look at how bad the humans are for our beloved Earth" point of view. But such individuals usually aren't particularly studied in demography or human geography. They don't realize the catastrophic effects of a sub 2.1 (US) population growth rate. I.e., the so c…

It's fundamental: any culture which doesn't have a place for families with 3+ children is unsustainable. You can hope to make up the shortfall with immigration, but that's just kicking the can down the road. At some point your have to depend on your own harvest, not the surplus of your neighbors.

Re: The Middle Class Can't Afford to Live in Cities Anymore

#224
post #140

This article reflects my wife and my experience: just a month ago we left San Diego for a small town north of Salt Lake City. We make over six-figures and San Diego held only poor economic prospects for us. We'd have a very difficult time buying a decent home (2000 sq ft, good neighborhood, reasonable commute) for a price which wouldn't jeopardize other essentials like retirement savings, kids college savings, saving…

It's not just housing policy that's gone wrong, it's transit policy. We haven't built good public transit in our cities, and now that cars are filling all available roads, even houses far away from cities are too expensive for how long commutes are. We wish we had a train system in many cities that allowed the middle class to live 40-60 minutes away from their jobs. Ultimately however the main problem is wealth inequ…

It ultimately boils down to simple supply and demand. Want to live in a nice, walkable medium density neighbourhood with good amenities? Sorry, America stopped building those 60 years ago. Why did we stop building them, and why can't we build more now? The answer to that is long, convoluted and tragic.

Re: The Middle Class Can't Afford to Live in Cities Anymore

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cities are attractive, too attractive, that's why prices are so high. We do not have a demand shortage. We have a supply shortage.

I'd say that every major city across the continents have a supply shortage, that's the nature of cities, but I haven't heard of any city in Europe not affordable to live in for the middle class. Surely the good 'ol supply & demand are influencing the pricing, but I believe there must be something external that has caused this.

Yes - that's because they don't have a supply problem; they don't do stupid things like zone their cities to prioritize single family detached homes. European cities are dense and if we want North American cities to be similarly liveable, we need to rezone to allow greater density and increased supply.

Re: The Middle Class Can't Afford to Live in Cities Anymore

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cities are attractive, too attractive, that's why prices are so high. We do not have a demand shortage. We have a supply shortage.

I'd say that every major city across the continents have a supply shortage, that's the nature of cities, but I haven't heard of any city in Europe not affordable to live in for the middle class. Surely the good 'ol supply & demand are influencing the pricing, but I believe there must be something external that has caused this.

Amsterdam, at least, is not affordable to live in for the middle class. This is a problem recognized by our government.

Re: The Middle Class Can't Afford to Live in Cities Anymore

#227
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just housing policy that's gone wrong, it's transit policy. We haven't built good public transit in our cities, and now that cars are filling all available roads, even houses far away from cities are too expensive for how long commutes are. We wish we had a train system in many cities that allowed the middle class to live 40-60 minutes away from their jobs. Ultimately however the main problem is wealth inequ…

> Ultimately however the main problem is wealth inequality. If median income had increased with GDP since 1980, instead of all gains going to the 0.01%, you would be able to afford to live in the suburbs of San Diego. The problem of income inequality is one and the same as the housing crisis - ie, the wealth gap is nearly entirely explained by real estate.

No, the wealth gap is not explained by real estate.

The problem is that the 0.01% -- households worth more than ~$100M -- have received almost all the wealth gains since 1980. That's not just real estate -- it has to do with globalization as well as tax and policy decision.

So the very rich have gotten much richer, while median incomes (I.e. middle class incomes) have not increased.

See Fig 1 of this paper: https://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/SaezZucman2014.pdf

Re: The Middle Class Can't Afford to Live in Cities Anymore

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cities are attractive, too attractive, that's why prices are so high. We do not have a demand shortage. We have a supply shortage.

I'd say that every major city across the continents have a supply shortage, that's the nature of cities, but I haven't heard of any city in Europe not affordable to live in for the middle class. Surely the good 'ol supply & demand are influencing the pricing, but I believe there must be something external that has caused this.

but I haven't heard of any city in Europe not affordable to live in for the middle class

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/most-expensive-cities

You will find that European cities are very expensive to buy in and equally bad to rent in. Paris, Geneva, London, Helsinki, Stockholm, etc... all suffer from the exact same issues we're now seeing in American cities.

You could argue that the make-up of those cities are superior, as their suburbs are much more compact and urban connected with much better public transportation. This coupled with a culture that is much more ok with living in small spaces helps the middle class immensely.

In terms of a priced out middle class, however, the United States is really just catching up to the rest of the world.

Re: The Middle Class Can't Afford to Live in Cities Anymore

#230
Good. I don't want to live in a city.

I dislike density and can't stand not having lots and lots of space. I love the look and feel of sprawl, and I want more of it... you couldn't pay me to live in an urban environment.

Crowded cities feel like something out of the past to me. Like, my great-grandparents lived in a crowded city when they first came to this country, and every subsequent generation has moved farther and farther out into the burbs. Moving to a city would feel like moving to 1901 to me.

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