The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020 • Hacker News Board

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#221

Post by bandrami » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 6:48 PM UTC

jessaustin wrote: post #209

br_smartass wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, surely the aristocrats of before would instantly jump at the opportunity of giving up their lifes of free-time, leisure, education, servants, 3-hour-meals, giant houses, countryside retreats, upper-class-socializing, to trade it with the shopping-mall-worker that does 60h weeks(no weekends), for he'd have a smartphone! Funny. This argument, which I've read before, only works with a really, really narrow definitio…

Lots of people would choose electric lighting, refrigeration, aircon, television, automobiles, etc.?

Not to mention "not dying of influenza and tuberculosis"...

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#222

Post by hackuser » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 7:24 PM UTC

dx034 wrote: post #205

hackuser wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't contradict what I said: The U.S. imports large amounts of food. The charts on a related page show tens of billions of dollars of imports per year: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-trade/... Net imports is a different question.

It still means that the US could probably rely on domestic production if it was forced to do so. In a war, no other country could leverage their position by threatening to stop food exports to the US. It would surely result in less choice, but wouldn't really hurt the US.

> wouldn't really hurt the US.

My expectation is that it would far more expensive, raising food prices and doing significant harm to the economy. Also imagine the massive costs of shifting production and the gap in food availability during the shift. But I agree that the U.S. wouldn't starve.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#223

Post by DoodleBuggy » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 8:48 PM UTC

throwaway2016a wrote: post #7

I haven't been myself but my wife is a process engineer and had to go to China to install and train people on a new machine so this is only second hand... But one of the reasons China is so good at manufacturing is because everything is in one place (or at least clusters)... need 10,000 of an Integrated Circuit? The company that makes it is literally down the street. Need some raw materials? That's down the other str…

Once upon a time the USA was like that.

I think it's unrealistic to return to that with current production needs, but perhaps it's possible with select future industries.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#224

Post by didibus » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 9:24 PM UTC

lambdasquirrel wrote: post #178

mc32 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly this. North San Jose (the 237 triangle) used to have PCB, chip, chassis, component, etc., manufacturers in proximity to each other. Consider: Sun used to make and assemble their "workstations" over in the East Bay not far from the 237 triangle. As the late '90s approached much of that local manufacturing was off-shored to the Foxconns and Flextronics, etc. as well as overseas foundries.

And when it all went over there it made room for Google and Facebook. Today it's hard for a startup to find space in downtown PA because of Palantir. What's a "problem" for the rest of the U.S. is creative destruction here. I worry we may have learned the wrong lessons because of current politics and inequalities. And it's worth remembering that automation is going to result in that manufacturing resulting in less jo…

Ya, I don't think most people think past the surface of this issue, but than, most people don't think at all.

On a side note, unemployment rates are at a low, so we relly don't need to worry too much. If you look at the charts: https://www.google.ca/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&... you see that it really was all due to the recession. Now that the economy has recovered, jobs are back.

All the talk of outsourcing, automation, and all that doesn't seem to show in numbers. Even full time employment is up: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/full-time-empl...

I wish our society valued data driven decisions a little more. Successful businesses do it all the time, why not politics?

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#225

Post by didibus » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 9:32 PM UTC

We could just all stop buying made in China. Seriously, all these things are laws of economics. You can't bypass them, as they are natural laws. Economics is the study of human motivation. Motivation is what dictates what we do and don't, it rules our actions.

If you wanted to have an impact, be conscious about your actions, pay that extra cost and buy local if you care so much, and don't buy at all if there's no local options.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#226

Post by aianus » Fri, Dec 30, 2016, 10:43 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #43

wil421 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about inflation? Why would anyone buy land if it was guaranteed to depreciate. I'd be better off renting from someone else losing money.

> I'd be better off renting from someone else losing money. No, you wouldn't, because if the rental market wouldn't support recovering the full costs to the owner, no one would bother owning land and renting it. Whatever costs fall on land owners will, inevitably, be fully (and then some, usually) distributed to renters of the land.

Only if the landlords are rational. If the landlord primarily bought the property hoping to sell it to a greater fool later on, then they won't care about the negative cash flow.

This is what's happening in Toronto right now. You can rent a condo for less than the mortgage interest + property tax + condo fees + maintenance.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#227

Post by witty_username » Sat, Dec 31, 2016, 4:29 PM UTC

Chathamization wrote: post #111

witty_username wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? After all the American people want cheaper things and that is done by moving factories to China.

For a lot of things, I'm not sure it saves people enough money to notice. Production isn't the entire price of a product - you also have things like transportation, retail markup, R&D, advertising, etc. Let's say that there's a $3.50 product that costs $1.50 to produce, and a company can save 10% of production costs by producing it in China (even with lower wages you don't tend to have huge savings when things like t…

It saves money for me; all my PC stuff is made in China or other Asian countries.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#228

Post by witty_username » Sat, Dec 31, 2016, 4:29 PM UTC

Chathamization wrote: post #111

witty_username wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? After all the American people want cheaper things and that is done by moving factories to China.

For a lot of things, I'm not sure it saves people enough money to notice. Production isn't the entire price of a product - you also have things like transportation, retail markup, R&D, advertising, etc. Let's say that there's a $3.50 product that costs $1.50 to produce, and a company can save 10% of production costs by producing it in China (even with lower wages you don't tend to have huge savings when things like t…

It saves money for me; all my PC stuff is made in China or other Asian countries.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#229

Post by tracker1 » Sat, Dec 31, 2016, 9:50 PM UTC

lambdasquirrel wrote: post #178

mc32 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly this. North San Jose (the 237 triangle) used to have PCB, chip, chassis, component, etc., manufacturers in proximity to each other. Consider: Sun used to make and assemble their "workstations" over in the East Bay not far from the 237 triangle. As the late '90s approached much of that local manufacturing was off-shored to the Foxconns and Flextronics, etc. as well as overseas foundries.

And when it all went over there it made room for Google and Facebook. Today it's hard for a startup to find space in downtown PA because of Palantir. What's a "problem" for the rest of the U.S. is creative destruction here. I worry we may have learned the wrong lessons because of current politics and inequalities. And it's worth remembering that automation is going to result in that manufacturing resulting in less jo…

Exactly, there may well be a lot more manufacture and assembly here in the US, but that's to support US deliveries with lower-cost shipments of final products. And most of that is automated, which is what allows US mfg to compete with overseas.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#230

Post by tracker1 » Sat, Dec 31, 2016, 9:54 PM UTC

didibus wrote: post #224

lambdasquirrel wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And when it all went over there it made room for Google and Facebook. Today it's hard for a startup to find space in downtown PA because of Palantir. What's a "problem" for the rest of the U.S. is creative destruction here. I worry we may have learned the wrong lessons because of current politics and inequalities. And it's worth remembering that automation is going to result in that manufacturing resulting in less jo…

Ya, I don't think most people think past the surface of this issue, but than, most people don't think at all. On a side note, unemployment rates are at a low, so we relly don't need to worry too much. If you look at the charts: https://www.google.ca/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&... you see that it really was all due to the recession. Now that the economy has recovered, jobs are back. All the talk of outsourc…

Because you get elected by stirring emotion in voters.