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Larry Page is pouring millions into flying cars

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221–230 of 242 posts

Re: Larry Page is pouring millions into flying cars

#221
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I know a helicopter pilot, I was shocked when he told me that. Would love to hear a aviation enthusiast compare safety differences and failure modes between helicopter autorotation and plane glide...

I respectfully disagree with the other comment who said he'd rather take a helicopter. (I'm a private pilot of fixed-wing aircraft.) For General Aviation safety, read the Joseph T. Nall report: https://www.aopa.org/-/media/files/aopa/home/training-and-sa... To summarize, helicopters and airplanes enjoy a reasonably similar lethality. Approximately 15-20% of accidents (total) are fatal to one or more occupants. Howeve…

The regulations required to make flying cars work at scale would be the end of recreational flying as we know it. Fortunately, it's not going to happen anytime soon.

Re: Larry Page is pouring millions into flying cars

#223
post #31

Do we actually want flying cars? They are probably less efficient because you have to overcome gravity, they are probably going to be pretty noisy, falling out of the sky and smashing into the ground is a new failure mode, ... Flying cars are certainly a nice gadget, but do we really need or want them? I can only think of two good arguments for flying cars, entering the third dimension if we run out of space on the s…

Rich people want them. What society wants (needs) is a superior airport experience and more fuel efficient air travel.

I'd prioritise high speed rail over more efficient air travel. But rail is not always feasible.

Re: Larry Page is pouring millions into flying cars

#224

A lot of the critical comments I see here are addressed the Uber paper ( https://www.uber.com/elevate.pdf ) which is a really interesting read. The cusp of their argument is that several technologies are coming together to make VTOL (vertical take-off and landing) feasible within the next decade. VTOL aircrafts are theoretically much more energy efficient than helicopters, and a lot of the cost associated with planes…

I hope it's not Uber pioneer this movement. Uber showed that they are not willing to comply public agency on regulation-related restrictions. VTOL vehicles, they are more dangerous than cars. Uber's attitude, when handling such technologies, make me scared.

The FAA is an entirely different animal than municipal codes backing taxis. Uber's 'easier to get forgiveness than permission' model will not fly with the FAA.

Re: Larry Page is pouring millions into flying cars

#225
post #31

Do we actually want flying cars? They are probably less efficient because you have to overcome gravity, they are probably going to be pretty noisy, falling out of the sky and smashing into the ground is a new failure mode, ... Flying cars are certainly a nice gadget, but do we really need or want them? I can only think of two good arguments for flying cars, entering the third dimension if we run out of space on the s…

Of course we want. But to see why, you can't imagine it as a car, like everybody insist. It's will be a vehicle, but not a plane, a drone or a car. They will not compete with these.

We definitely need for example a faster way to transport rich people than cars, but cheaper than planes in short distances.

We definitely need a better way to transport patients between hospitals than ambulances and helicopters.

We need to see the future here, not the past (the outdated idea of 'flying cars')

Re: Larry Page is pouring millions into flying cars

#226
post #31

Do we actually want flying cars? They are probably less efficient because you have to overcome gravity, they are probably going to be pretty noisy, falling out of the sky and smashing into the ground is a new failure mode, ... Flying cars are certainly a nice gadget, but do we really need or want them? I can only think of two good arguments for flying cars, entering the third dimension if we run out of space on the s…

There are advantages that can make them more efficient: - Straight line transportation, saving energy & time - Faster speedwise - No infrastructure needed, software is basically infrastructure - Can handle rough terrain with less maintenance - Can deal with traffic better or have more concurrent bandwidth. - Can allow cities to de-concentrate and people to live further away. Our model at the moment is the city model…

If seen on a massive scale, I'm not so sure about some these arguments.

Air transport will need management for safety reasons, which means air corridors, landing areas, some kind of ATC system. Which correlates to infrastructure costs, not so straight line transportation and not so time efficient commutes.

As activity centers tends to be somewhat concentrated, huge amount of flying cars will tend to go or left small areas at the same time, creating air traffic jams to land or take off.

Classic infrastructure will still be needed to transport heavy items, such as large quantities of food, machinery, etc. Even the construction phase a new developments will need those roads and bridges.

Strangely, faster transportation doesn't mean shorter commutes, quite the contrary, the average commute time tends to go way up when transports evolve to become faster and denser as it enables urban areas to grow even more. The real alternative is to "de-concentrate" activity centers to have relatively autonomous parcels with residential, work and commerce close together and necessitating only light transport forms (by foot, by bike, or light transports like tramways).

Flying cars are also mostly "fail catastrophically systems", it's good that motors are redundant, but there are not the only items that can fail. Batteries, the control surfaces, the inboard computer, or the whole structure can fail. Flying is also quite hard, specially in difficult meteorological conditions, building automation to handle such cases will be extremely hard (I've no competences in the area but the picture of a vertical landing in windy condition, seems a bit frightening).

Interesting statistic: on a per journey basis, airplanes have 2 to 3 times more death than cars, (on a per km basis it's very safe), imagine what it would looks like with a lot of small commutes.

I'm not convinced it's really the solution... I see it at best as a cheaper and more accessible helicopter ride.

Re: Larry Page is pouring millions into flying cars

#227
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think L/D of more than 10 is realistic for a compact VTOL aircraft even in cruise mode, and then there's the vertical take off and landing component that will cause further inefficiency especially on short trips. But at the same time I don't think it matters that much.

Depends on the type of VTOL. Quad copter? Not so efficient. Tilt-wing? I imagine it's much better. (Amateur opinion disclaimer)

iirc a v-22 is below 5:1 and somewhere around 3:1

The new DEP designs will do better, but exceeding 10:1 seems unlikely

Re: Larry Page is pouring millions into flying cars

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...I hate to be aggressive here, but did you read the darn article? It's the reason we're even on this page, and it directly addresses your point. That's even underselling it, the entire purpose of the article is to ask and answer your point.

It does not so much address the issues as it glosses over them. For example, it assumes that past battery performance trends can be extrapolated, but the battery-makers, -engineers and -chemists themselves do not expect this. Nor does the article attempt to address the noise problem.

I walked away with the impression that trends couldn't be extrapolated, thanks to various snippets from the article, but there's no pull quote that clearly proves it, so, sure.

The noise problem you brought up apropos of nothing.

You're responding to a comment responding to a comment that had concerns that were already addressed by the article, to let me know your concerns weren't addressed by the article. Surely there's a better place in the comment hierarchy for this? You'll get ignored down here.

Re: Larry Page is pouring millions into flying cars

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's build a bot to participate in HN discussions. Then we can all save some time and get back to work. My first two suggestions: Q: Someone is building flying cars. A: Do we really need them? Q: Someone is investing money into extending human life. A: Let's talk about the social implications of immortality.

We can abstract this a bit Q: Innovation announced! A: Not possible based on my legacy experience/guild qualification.

That doesn't actually generalize GP, but presents a very different issue (neither of the examples you claim to be "abstracting" involve challenging the possibility of the announced innovation.) GP is more "Announcement: Innovation! Response: Questions about utility and/or unintended consequences."

Re: Larry Page is pouring millions into flying cars

#230
post #31

Do we actually want flying cars? They are probably less efficient because you have to overcome gravity, they are probably going to be pretty noisy, falling out of the sky and smashing into the ground is a new failure mode, ... Flying cars are certainly a nice gadget, but do we really need or want them? I can only think of two good arguments for flying cars, entering the third dimension if we run out of space on the s…

>Do we actually want flying cars? There's probably a market for a vertical-takeoff vehicle serving a premium/luxury transportation niche - the same segment that is currently served by helicopters. I imagine you would still need a pilot's license and have to adhere to the rigorous FAA-maintenance schedule - so it would never be a mass-market product.

That's how I read this. They basically want a cheaper autonomous-helicopter-uber-like service for mid-level execs.
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