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Stop Obsessing Over Comments On Hacker News (2015)

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Re: Stop Obsessing Over Comments On Hacker News (2015)

#41

Post by caseysoftware »

minimaxir wrote: post #29

Ugh. There really should be a logical fallacy around the fact that Hacker News was incorrect about Dropbox and other companies, and how it's not a license to ignore comments altogether . I really wish people would stop referring to the Dropbox story on HN as an example of "ignore the haters because they are wrong." Dropbox, and the other startups mentioned in the post, are outliers , not typical examples, and also ca…

Agreed. There's major survivorship bias in the author's selection.

I'd love to see an analysis of all the "Show HN" posts and which projects/companies are alive and thriving at +1 year, +3 years, and +5 years. It still wouldn't be a complete picture but better than cherry picking winners.

Re: Stop Obsessing Over Comments On Hacker News (2015)

#42

Post by [deleted] »

pfarnsworth wrote: post #25

This really just puts more strength in the idea that success is largely luck-based. No one can accurately predict success. Not specialized forums, not specialized workers in the field, and not even VCs whose sole incentive is to make money by investing in great ideas . Even YC says as much that they have no clear idea as to what will be a success, and their strongest signal is the strength of the founders, and that t…

[deleted]

Re: Stop Obsessing Over Comments On Hacker News (2015)

#44

Post by andrewclunn »

DiabloD3 wrote: post #24
KevinEldon wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe you're saying the devil has many advocates here.

Yup, that is literally HN's community in a nutshell. Not passing judgement, mind you, but at least it isn't a Goddamned echo chamber like most other websites. Well, at least, not nearly as bad.

Yes, but you made the mistake of attempting to be witty, so now you must be downvoted into oblivion!

Re: Stop Obsessing Over Comments On Hacker News (2015)

#45

Post by imagist »

AirBnB poses a safety risk to homeowners. The fact that it's also a billion dollar business now doesn't change that. Additional problems have been discovered with AirBnB's business model, which are arguably even worse.

Sure, if all you care about is money, those criticisms don't matter. But personally, I care about if I might have a negative effect on the world.

Re: Stop Obsessing Over Comments On Hacker News (2015)

#46

Post by virmundi »

DiabloD3 wrote: post #24
KevinEldon wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe you're saying the devil has many advocates here.

Yup, that is literally HN's community in a nutshell. Not passing judgement, mind you, but at least it isn't a Goddamned echo chamber like most other websites. Well, at least, not nearly as bad.

I like that HN is an echo chamber with a multitude of groups yelling at one time. Like binaural beats, something good comes from the synthesis.

Re: Stop Obsessing Over Comments On Hacker News (2015)

#47

Post by nostrademons »

pfarnsworth wrote: post #25

This really just puts more strength in the idea that success is largely luck-based. No one can accurately predict success. Not specialized forums, not specialized workers in the field, and not even VCs whose sole incentive is to make money by investing in great ideas . Even YC says as much that they have no clear idea as to what will be a success, and their strongest signal is the strength of the founders, and that t…

Luck vs. skill is a false dichotomy. When people (or products, startups, organizations, governments, etc.) are successful, it's usually because they had developed very good skills at a.) putting themselves in situations where good luck is going to happen to them, b.) being able to continue doing so until good luck does occur, and c.) positioning themselves to take advantage of that luck when it happens.

Re: Stop Obsessing Over Comments On Hacker News (2015)

#48

Post by [deleted] »

caseysoftware wrote: post #39
pfarnsworth wrote: post #25

This really just puts more strength in the idea that success is largely luck-based. No one can accurately predict success. Not specialized forums, not specialized workers in the field, and not even VCs whose sole incentive is to make money by investing in great ideas . Even YC says as much that they have no clear idea as to what will be a success, and their strongest signal is the strength of the founders, and that t…

I agree with some of the sentiment but I feel like saying "largely luck-based" frames it as being mostly out of our control. Yes, there are absolutely economic/industry issues that are completely out of our control and hard to predict but I believe a major part is the strength of the team to focus, execute, get along and continue when sh*t happens, and adjust as their Vision hits reality. I'm not sure what the divisi…

[deleted]

Re: Stop Obsessing Over Comments On Hacker News (2015)

#49

Post by HillaryBriss »

hehheh wrote: post #23
empath75 wrote: post #12

There are so many comments on hacker news of the flavor: "Why would anyone use this when you can build it yourself in five minutes using x, y and z open source tools" completely ignoring how much knowledge you have to have retained in order to build it in five minutes.

Any time I read someone saying something like that I internally replace the subject with food. "Why would anyone buy food professionally made at a restaurant when you could make something similar at home?" Because I want something nice and I'm willing to spend some cash to get it. C'mon..

i love that comparison. also reminds me of the idea from economics that even a country that produces "widget x" domestically can in certain situations still come out ahead by importing some units of "widget x" from another country.

sometimes i'm better off buying takeout food from a restaurant so i can spend that time wrapping up some work task so i can just forget about it. i can bill a little more time that day. and i'll sleep better that night. it's worth it.

Re: Stop Obsessing Over Comments On Hacker News (2015)

#50

Post by pfarnsworth »

caseysoftware wrote: post #39
pfarnsworth wrote: post #25

This really just puts more strength in the idea that success is largely luck-based. No one can accurately predict success. Not specialized forums, not specialized workers in the field, and not even VCs whose sole incentive is to make money by investing in great ideas . Even YC says as much that they have no clear idea as to what will be a success, and their strongest signal is the strength of the founders, and that t…

I agree with some of the sentiment but I feel like saying "largely luck-based" frames it as being mostly out of our control. Yes, there are absolutely economic/industry issues that are completely out of our control and hard to predict but I believe a major part is the strength of the team to focus, execute, get along and continue when sh*t happens, and adjust as their Vision hits reality. I'm not sure what the divisi…

Assuming that the minimum threshold for any successful company are things like "strength of the team to focus, execute, get along and continue when sh*t happens, and adjust as their Vision hits reality", then I do believe that everything else is out of your control.

If it weren't out of your control, then wouldn't someone have already come up with a more surefire way of creating a successful company than what we currently have? The smartest people are here in Silicon Valley, all trying to become billionaires and yet only a very small percentage actually succeed, and there's no way to accurately and consistently predict before it happens.

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