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The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

fortune.com

211–220 of 235 posts

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#211
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We really need economic indicators that reflect conditions for most people, not just the top few. Indicators that are often used in the news like rising GDP, house prices and manufacturing output are pretty useless if only a few get benefits from them.

The people who make money by moving plants offshore, are also behind the design of the economic indicators, knowing that if you can control what is measured then you are in charge of the conversation, and therefore in charge of the politics. That is what American oligarchs have been doing for the past 5 decades, distorting the entire system from top to bottom so that nobody can figure out what is going on. It's the s…

Do you have any source or evidence even hinting at any of this or is it just standard conspiracy theory fare?

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the sky is red but I tell you today it is teal -- I am lying about something I misunderstand

Does "lying" not imply one knows the truth?

No. It implies one is attempting to pass of a false statement as true. If you know your statement is false, you are lying. Just because you don't know the truth doesn't mean you can't lie.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#213
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For off-the-shelf electronic parts in small quantities, everybody orders from Digi-Key, or maybe Mouser. Order by 8 PM Central time, delivery by 10:30 AM the next morning if you pay for FedEx. That's what wiped out local parts stores. You never knew what they had in stock, and the markups were huge. Also, Digi-Key doesn't have a counterfeit parts problem. Digi-Key deals directly with manufacturers. The supply chain i…

The problem with digikey (in my mind, as a hobbyist) is that you don't actually know the total until after the order has shipped.

Can you explain how this works?

I live in Canada, shipping is $8 flat rate, and all the taxes and shipping are totalled on the "preview" screen.

I've never paid customs fees in all the years of ordering, so for my situation I know the full price upfront before ordering

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They haven't even cracked the automobile market yet. No one in the west will buy a Chinese car, let alone a Chinese plane.

They sell Chinese pickup trucks here in New Zealand under the brand "Great Wall". Everything I've heard about them is that they're unreliable and unsafe to an extreme degree. You're apparently better off buying a 3 year old Toyota Hilux or Nissan Navara for the same price as a brand new Chinese truck.

How long ago did these vehicles go on sale and has there been any improvement in quality since? Japanese and Korean vehicles in general had a rough time entering the US market (decades ago). They did start off being lower quality. But they got better. I wonder if this "Great Wall" manufacturer has it in them to make vehicles that are competitive on a global basis.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still a lot of truth to this. Here in West Michigan, there are tons of auto parts manufacturers, both "boring" manufacturing (plastic molding, etc.) and emerging tech.

Preserving this cluster was the reason for the auto bailout, correct?

Yes, that was a big part of it. If even one of the Big Three had failed, the ripple effects would have crushed the entire industry, as well as the region. The resulting failure of many suppliers (due to them losing ~33% of their business overnight) would have crippled the surviving auto companies as well.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#216
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly this. North San Jose (the 237 triangle) used to have PCB, chip, chassis, component, etc., manufacturers in proximity to each other. Consider: Sun used to make and assemble their "workstations" over in the East Bay not far from the 237 triangle. As the late '90s approached much of that local manufacturing was off-shored to the Foxconns and Flextronics, etc. as well as overseas foundries.

And when it all went over there it made room for Google and Facebook. Today it's hard for a startup to find space in downtown PA because of Palantir. What's a "problem" for the rest of the U.S. is creative destruction here. I worry we may have learned the wrong lessons because of current politics and inequalities. And it's worth remembering that automation is going to result in that manufacturing resulting in less jo…

[deleted]

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#217
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly this. North San Jose (the 237 triangle) used to have PCB, chip, chassis, component, etc., manufacturers in proximity to each other. Consider: Sun used to make and assemble their "workstations" over in the East Bay not far from the 237 triangle. As the late '90s approached much of that local manufacturing was off-shored to the Foxconns and Flextronics, etc. as well as overseas foundries.

And when it all went over there it made room for Google and Facebook. Today it's hard for a startup to find space in downtown PA because of Palantir. What's a "problem" for the rest of the U.S. is creative destruction here. I worry we may have learned the wrong lessons because of current politics and inequalities. And it's worth remembering that automation is going to result in that manufacturing resulting in less jo…

>it's worth remembering that automation is going to result in that manufacturing resulting in less jobs. What's going to happen when people expect the jobs to come back but then they don't?

/u/Brightball posted this on HN and I felt it was a good response to your concern.

"One of the big perks to manufacturing is that it draws the entire supply chain around it naturally. Even if the manufacturing job itself isn't as abundant, the peripheral jobs that comes with it from shipping materials, producing materials, distribution, sales agreements, logistics, building construction and maintenance...they all provide benefits."

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#219
post #75

I haven't been myself but my wife is a process engineer and had to go to China to install and train people on a new machine so this is only second hand... But one of the reasons China is so good at manufacturing is because everything is in one place (or at least clusters)... need 10,000 of an Integrated Circuit? The company that makes it is literally down the street. Need some raw materials? That's down the other str…

Yes, mostly we sell the equipment and design services that make the manufacturing possible. There is huge leverage in that and the higher margins that WallStreet demands. For quite some time (mostly) Asian governments have been investing in education, infrastructure, and equipment to manufacture the consumer items of the world. It is much harder to do development and understand the real manufacturing bottle necks whe…

Yep. The feet on the ground experience tells you, me and others like us that in the war to create automation, the odds favor China, because in the end, they own the myriad little details that get expressed as "edge cases" and resolved issues during development of the automation solutions, and which are completely unavailable unless you own the literal physical factory. This feet on the ground experience is discounted by the policymakers, so it will be an interesting case study to watch unfold over the next couple of decades. If our experience-informed observations are correct, then US senior management will experience a nasty automotive-industry-style shock when it "suddenly" discovers China is far better at automation than the presumptive US comparative-advantaged expertise led them to believe.

My take is there are no shortcuts for doing the actual work. Just like there is no replacement for lifting the actual weight and eating a clean diet instead of reading yourself into expertise on fitness.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#220

I'm pretty sure our manufacturing output exceeded China's for most of the oughts, also. The myth that "we don't make things here anymore" is, well, a myth. We just don't employ people to make things anymore.

It's a well founded myth based on an extremely high percentage of consumer goods produced overseas. I can't find hard data on this, but anecdotally it's very hard to find things made in the US unless it's a high end store. Chinese manufacturing filled the burst in consumer demand for budget-level products...

> anecdotally it's very hard to find things made in the US unless it's a high end store

manufacturing output is measured in dollars, not 'amount of stuff' except in very specific cases. producing fewer but more expensive high end goods (like what the US makes) can still result in more output.

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