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Insurance firm to replace human workers with AI system

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Re: Insurance firm to replace human workers with AI system

#41
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just not true. Source: my sister is a commercial underwriter at a large US insurance company. And while they do have software that gives a suggestion for a premium, it does not know enough to be accurate, so she has to always adjust it. This is definitely an industry where more automation could easily be done, but the big insurers are a conservative, risk adverse group.

> it does not know enough to be accurate, so she has to always adjust it What kind of stuff does it miss?

Market stuff, like how the companies entire book is doing (what losses they've had so far that year), regional balancing, past payouts to the insured, raising or lowering the overall risk of the book, and just plain sales (sometimes you have to take on more risk then you'd like to meet a sales quota, but you can balance that by making other lower risk clients pay more).

It's also complicated because it's hard to model buildings correctly. My sister likes to tell a story about a total loss she had for a standard masonry building with sprinklers. From her point of view, this is the perfect type of building. They're hard to catch on fire, and if there is a fire, the building puts it out. At worse, your damage is limited to the one room or section where the fire was, since the internal masonry walls keep it from spreading. This building burnt down because the solar panels on the roof caught fire, which spread across all the panel over the entire roof. The sprinklers never got a chance to go off because the roof collapsed. It's certainly possible to model this one case, but the problem is there are a million one off cases like this, and we don't know about them until there's a loss. Right now, human intuition from the underwriters and inspectors is what they use to cover try to cover the gap.

Re: Insurance firm to replace human workers with AI system

#42
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to marginalize your sister's job, but couldn't that essentially be training for an "AI system" (NN or otherwise), and over time it will reach similar conclusions with increasing accuracy? Maybe they're doing that at her work already behind the scenes.

You fundamentally overestimate the current and near future capabilities of machine learning.

My naive view from being a customer of various insurance companies is that there's a series of lookup tables and charts that does things like "male age 18-25, no history of smoking, here's your rate", with some room for variance based on other factors (some linear or log scale for family history or blood test results, for example). On the surface, those all seem like logical computer functions to do, and as an extension things that would work well training a NN off of after starting with the basic lookup tables. Can you go into more detail on what I'm overestimating?

Re: Insurance firm to replace human workers with AI system

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to marginalize your sister's job, but couldn't that essentially be training for an "AI system" (NN or otherwise), and over time it will reach similar conclusions with increasing accuracy? Maybe they're doing that at her work already behind the scenes.

An AI system could probably get close, but the act of capturing all the variables might cost the insurance companies more then the current system, which involves a lot of 'gut feelings' about what is important or not for a policy. There is also licensing involved, in my sister's case she had to earn a CPCU before she could do here job on her own.

Thanks for the info, and yeah licensing was something I hadn't even considered but could be a big liability for a company relying on machines (side note: wonder how the self driving cars handle this?)

Re: Insurance firm to replace human workers with AI system

#44
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You fundamentally overestimate the current and near future capabilities of machine learning.

My naive view from being a customer of various insurance companies is that there's a series of lookup tables and charts that does things like "male age 18-25, no history of smoking, here's your rate", with some room for variance based on other factors (some linear or log scale for family history or blood test results, for example). On the surface, those all seem like logical computer functions to do, and as an extens…

That's the most trivial form of term life insurance that you're referring to.

What table would you consult to come up with a rate for E&O and liability insurance for the CEO of Uber? Remember your goal is to make money.

Re: Insurance firm to replace human workers with AI system

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to marginalize your sister's job, but couldn't that essentially be training for an "AI system" (NN or otherwise), and over time it will reach similar conclusions with increasing accuracy? Maybe they're doing that at her work already behind the scenes.

An AI system could probably get close, but the act of capturing all the variables might cost the insurance companies more then the current system, which involves a lot of 'gut feelings' about what is important or not for a policy. There is also licensing involved, in my sister's case she had to earn a CPCU before she could do here job on her own.

>which involves a lot of 'gut feelings' about what is important or not for a policy.

Edit: I see you answered this same question below. Whoops.

Can you give some examples?

I thought it's pretty well understood that the "gut feelings" of experts have been and will continue to be outperformed by algorithms for these sorts of tasks. My imagination is failing trying to come up with something data-based that an agent would see and a computer couldn't.

Re: Insurance firm to replace human workers with AI system

#46
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ha, I guess I was giving the benefit of the doubt. Certainly you hear more about the failures, but that be because they get better press. Not sure about any studies, would love to see a link or two if you have them lying around.

probably just my having soaked in the conventional wisdom, looked around quickly found the following http://www.umsl.edu/~sauterv/analysis/6840_f03_papers/frese/ quotes: At companies that aren’t among the top 25% of technology users, three out of 10 IT projects fail on average. AND On average, about 70% of all IT-related projects fail to meet their objectives.” In this case Lewis includes not only projects that were…

The bottom 50% have no idea because they have no consistent objectives.

Re: Insurance firm to replace human workers with AI system

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I only skimmed, but it indicated that 34% of a pool of ("primarily") 47 workers would be replaced. So ... 16 employees. I suppose that's interesting, but it's not as big as the headline made me believe.

That's not what the article is saying. It says 34 employees (not 34%) primarily from a pool of 47 workers on 5-year contracts will be "made redundant". (the rest may not have their contracts renewed) That's more than 30% of the 131 employees. The article also cites other companies doing the same thing, even if no staff cuts are involved for now.

This is reporter math we are talking about here. Expect the numbers to be surrounded by good prose, but accuracy to be dubious.

Re: Insurance firm to replace human workers with AI system

#49
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ha, I guess I was giving the benefit of the doubt. Certainly you hear more about the failures, but that be because they get better press. Not sure about any studies, would love to see a link or two if you have them lying around.

probably just my having soaked in the conventional wisdom, looked around quickly found the following http://www.umsl.edu/~sauterv/analysis/6840_f03_papers/frese/ quotes: At companies that aren’t among the top 25% of technology users, three out of 10 IT projects fail on average. AND On average, about 70% of all IT-related projects fail to meet their objectives.” In this case Lewis includes not only projects that were…

Thanks for the info!

Re: Insurance firm to replace human workers with AI system

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My naive view from being a customer of various insurance companies is that there's a series of lookup tables and charts that does things like "male age 18-25, no history of smoking, here's your rate", with some room for variance based on other factors (some linear or log scale for family history or blood test results, for example). On the surface, those all seem like logical computer functions to do, and as an extens…

That's the most trivial form of term life insurance that you're referring to. What table would you consult to come up with a rate for E&O and liability insurance for the CEO of Uber? Remember your goal is to make money.

That's a great point. Even if it was say 99% accurate, that 1% would likely be the outliers that make or cost the most.
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