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The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

fortune.com

21–30 of 235 posts

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#21
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We really need economic indicators that reflect conditions for most people, not just the top few. Indicators that are often used in the news like rising GDP, house prices and manufacturing output are pretty useless if only a few get benefits from them.

We should also start treating rising housing prices as a policy failure.

I've never heard that argument before but that sounds interesting - can you link me towards more writing on it?

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#22

Jobs that are vulnerable to automation are generally not worth keeping. That's no comfort to those loosing them though. Science fiction from the 60's painted a world where people would lounge around in their airships hopping between beaches, and mountains and parties while robots took care of everything and the lord scientists and engineers that gifted the wold with such plenty smiled benevolently down on the citizen…

Did it not happen? Even poor people today have objectively much better living standards than rich people 100 years ago.

A rising tide lifts all boats. Even poor people in 1960 have objectively much better living standards than rich people 100 years before, yet we work longer hours and have less security. What happens to you today if you loose your job tomorrow, and cannot find employment within 6 months ?

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#24

I haven't been myself but my wife is a process engineer and had to go to China to install and train people on a new machine so this is only second hand... But one of the reasons China is so good at manufacturing is because everything is in one place (or at least clusters)... need 10,000 of an Integrated Circuit? The company that makes it is literally down the street. Need some raw materials? That's down the other str…

Seattle is this way.

Washington state has an airplane factory in the woods and a car fiber (BMW) plant out in the desert. In the city you can find businesses to build anything.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#25
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We really need economic indicators that reflect conditions for most people, not just the top few. Indicators that are often used in the news like rising GDP, house prices and manufacturing output are pretty useless if only a few get benefits from them.

We should also start treating rising housing prices as a policy failure.

What about inflation? Why would anyone buy land if it was guaranteed to depreciate.

I'd be better off renting from someone else losing money.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#27
I read the article and skimmed the full study and was left scratching my head:

- What exactly do they mean by 'Competitiveness'?

- Why so much focus on labour costs, when manufacturing cost is increasingly driven by large capital investments (especially in China, where low interest rates and government encouragement have expanded capital investments for years)

- Why all the talk about R&D expenditure. Is that really a driver of manufacturing competitiveness (whatever that means) or manufacturing output?

- How do they expect (on page 46) China's consumption to rise to 46% of GDP by 2025, if GDP will rise at 6.5% per year during the period? Such a shift would require consumption to go up by ~10% per year.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did it not happen? Even poor people today have objectively much better living standards than rich people 100 years ago.

A rising tide lifts all boats. Even poor people in 1960 have objectively much better living standards than rich people 100 years before, yet we work longer hours and have less security. What happens to you today if you loose your job tomorrow, and cannot find employment within 6 months ?

Huh? Working hours in 1960 were significantly less than in 1860. And working hours in 2016 were significantly less than 1916. Other than ramping up for war production I think hours worked has been monotonically decreasing.

Re: The U.S. Will Surpass China as the No. 1 Country for Manufacturing by 2020

#30

Upon what data and assumptions is this prediction based? How will this help Joe Six-pack?

It won't help Joe Six-pack. And your questions make me think you did not read the article. The manufacturing output will increase due to automation & other improved techniques.

My fave quote from the article:

> So while it's understandable the state of manufacturing is of concern to presidential candidates, those who say they can bring back lost jobs in the sector either don't know what they are talking about, or are being disingenuous.

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