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Facebook is Dying

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Re: Facebook is Dying

#71

Post by RyanMcGreal »

j_baker wrote: post #68
ekanes wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Just like Microsoft (or Internet Explorer, or Excel, etc) is "dying". With enough momentum, things can coast downhill for a long time.

Or coast into their own little niche. IBM has gotten to be a pro at this.

I doubt Microsoft will "die" in the sense of going bankrupt and ceasing to exist as a company. However, it seems clear that Microsoft is already "dead" in the Paul Graham sense:

http://www.paulgraham.com/cliffsnotes.html

Similarly, MySpace is already dead in that sense, though like IBM it seems to have carved out a niche as a useful home page / event listing / music player for small and independent bands.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#72

Post by plesn »

Ok, so now I need a social network obeying the following constraints:

- I control my data. My data are where I decide they should be, on my server or web-hosted somewhere. So it is decentralised and everyone has it's node.

- It's based on a standard API, not a product. It defines identities (openid url?), associated publishing of data (defined by its url), relation between data (like a comment on a photo. So some JSON here), and mainly access rights on this data by other identities.

- friends I accept are based on some sort of authorized_keys mecanism, with more detailed access rights.

- I can define some data-stores elswhere, like my photos being on Flickr... Of course I loose some control, but I can revert this.

- there is a canonical open source implementation I can install at home.

- I can easily move my account or some of my data seamlessly, have my url point to it. It should be easier than moving a blog if you own your domain!

So it's just the web, openid, and some standards, or am I missing something. Is someone making this ?

edit: I precised some ideas.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#73

Post by jsz0 »

It got so complex that people had no other choice than to look at simpler solutions

The big difference is these extended features, inconsistencies, and functionality overlaps don't really effect the core usability of Facebook for the masses. Most people look for the text box, write something, and click Share or they use the 4 icons under the same text box for video, photos, events, links. That's it. Very simple.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#74

Post by hyperbovine »

ekanes wrote: post #66
jacquesm wrote: post #8

We're all dying, but that doesn't mean we'll be dying tomorrow. Titles like that should come with a qualifying end-date. Otherwise it's just about some undefined point in the future. If facebook is dying I'd like to see some proof. I'm very much of the opinion that facebook is transient, but I'd be very careful to stick an end-date on it smaller than at least 5 years in to the future, and a lot can happen in 5 years.…

Exactly. Just like Microsoft (or Internet Explorer, or Excel, etc) is "dying". With enough momentum, things can coast downhill for a long time.

Without enough friction, things can coast downhill with no momentum at all.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#75

Post by hyperbovine »

sasmith wrote: post #34
fnid2 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll take the top 5 metric charity bet. I bet that by May 7, 2015, Facebook will not be in the top 5 sites as ranked by Alexa. I think it's an easy metric free of dispute. In 5 years, we may argue, "What is a social network?" But I highly doubt facebook will be in the top 5. I choose my high school as the recipient of your money when I win. :) I'll be back here in 5 years to see who the winner is. Adding an item to m…

What if Alexa is no longer around?

What if the USA is no longer around?

Re: Facebook is Dying

#76

Post by gamache »

plesn wrote: post #72

Ok, so now I need a social network obeying the following constraints: - I control my data. My data are where I decide they should be, on my server or web-hosted somewhere. So it is decentralised and everyone has it's node. - It's based on a standard API, not a product. It defines identities (openid url?), associated publishing of data (defined by its url), relation between data (like a comment on a photo. So some JSO…

You are basically talking about the World Wide Web itself.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#77

Post by JoeAltmaier »

jsz0 wrote: post #73

It got so complex that people had no other choice than to look at simpler solutions The big difference is these extended features, inconsistencies, and functionality overlaps don't really effect the core usability of Facebook for the masses. Most people look for the text box, write something, and click Share or they use the 4 icons under the same text box for video, photos, events, links. That's it. Very simple.

Simple, it is not. I've used it for months, still don't have any idea what the tabs are for, not sure who can see what I post, not sure where my "wall" is. Not because I'm an idiot, but I have an arrogant disregard for confusing interfaces and refuse to spend even a few minutes decoding their arcane controls.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#78

Post by fnid2 »

RyanMcGreal wrote: post #69
fnid2 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's much easier to predict what will happen than it is to predict when. For example, I can make the following predictions: Facebook will collapse India and China will erupt into violent war We will experience a water crisis Oil will run out (that one is actually easier, about 3 decades) Iran will be invaded These are all fairly obvious predictions. Sometimes math can be used to zero in on dates, but for most of us a…

I admire your bold prediction, and I hope we come back a year or two later to see how well your timeline bears out. Just one quibble: >Oil will run out (that one is actually easier, about 3 decades) That would be roughly correct at current rates of extraction, but: * The oil production rate is going to start declining by 2-3 percent a year some time in the next several years (we've been plateaued at 85 mbpd since aro…

Production is declining, but consumption is increasing, so it could be less than 30 years. I also believe that oil will be come more valuable as a pharmaceutical base, for fertilizer, and plastics than for energy. We'll have other sources of energy that we will use to extract the oil, so the 1:1 rule may not apply. As long as the energy costs to extract it are lower than its value for all uses, it'll still be extracted.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#79

Post by JoeAltmaier »

potatolicious wrote: post #47
lsb wrote: post #7

Like Microsoft is dying?

A bit, yeah. Granted, given their size and cash in the bank they'll hobble along for quite a while longer - decades perhaps - but their days as a fast-growing industry leader are almost done (if not so already). One of their two cash cows is doing well, the other (larger one) is losing market share rapidly to a competing desktop OS, as well as having its profitability absolutely shredded by low-cost computing (read:…

Ok, not to digress too much, but Microsoft is not an industry "leader" and perhaps never has been. A leader has to know where they're going. Microsoft expands "vegetatively", trying everything and putting money behind what wins. DOS sold well for 10 years; Microsoft pushed DOS. And NT, and CE, and Windows Mobile. They "lead" until margins; then they abandon and rush off to whatever is winning this quarter. This is nothing like leadership; its what a follower does, except in this case Microsoft is following their own shadow. It leaves us all spinning from technology to technology trying to guess if this next great thing is going to last.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#80

Post by cilantro »

mrvir wrote: post #62
gsk wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that will probably be the case. But note that the usefulness of said data diminishes as time goes by. Eventually your data dies too.

No, I think it will be great fun for your grandchildren to learn about your online obsessions.

One can only imagine what future anthropologists will make of early internet culture.
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