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Economists versus the Economy

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Re: Economists versus the Economy

#4
I don't agree with everything Skidelsky (the author) writes, but his main point rings true:

"Today’s professional economists... have studied almost nothing but economics. They don’t even read the classics of their own discipline. Economic history comes, if at all, from data sets. Philosophy, which could teach them about the limits of the economic method, is a closed book. Mathematics, demanding and seductive, has monopolized their mental horizons. The economists are the idiots savants of our time."

In other words, they lack what Charlie Munger calls "elementary worldly wisdom:" https://old.ycombinator.com/munger.html.

Re: Economists versus the Economy

#6

>Policymakers don’t know what to do. They press the usual (and unusual) levers and nothing happens. That's not really true if they're refusing to push the Keynesian levers for ideological reasons.

Yeah, it's not exactly a mystery what is happening; many central bank policy makers (contrary to the optimistic but unsourced charters toon of QE expectations in TFA) have been quite blunt about the limitations of monetary policy, while in many large economies that have substantial impact on the global situation (especially, but not exclusively, the US) the authorities with power over fiscal policy have refused to intervene (or intervened in the opposite direction that would be represented by the "usual levers") for ideological reasons. The results have been predictably disastrous, but it's not a failure of mainstream economics.

EDIT: Which is not, at all, to say that there aren't real problems in economics, just that the article here isnt identifying the and is instead pushing a narrative that has been repeatedly advanced to pass of responsibility for dereliction of duty by legislators onto, well, anyone else.

Re: Economists versus the Economy

#7
Can anyone lend insight into whether any of the following really hold any merit?

1) Economists have a structural imperative not to publish their most meaningful studies. In short, if you find an accurate model for something, there's a good chance you can make more privately than via publishing.

2) The lack of a professional body for economists leaves open to corruption. Like the Dean of Columbia's Economics school writing a report praising Iceland's market reforms prior to 2008, at the behest of Iceland's Chamber of Commerce.

3) Economics jobs tend to fall into 2 broad categories. Either you're working for wallstreet analyzing markets, which are, in fact, very free ideal markets that lend themselves to the mathematical model... or you're working for a think tank, which almost certainly has an ideological bias.

Re: Economists versus the Economy

#8
I'm not sure if this article brings up anything new but it fans my crisis of epistemology all the same.

I've always been a good "the academics know what they're talking about" believer, but lately I've started having doubts.

I went to MIT and many of my good friends and peers went onto PhDs in the hard sciences (Princeton/CERN, Harvard CfA, CalTech chemistry) so I've always been impressed, almost reverential, towards them and the discoveries of their fields.

But as we branch away from physics, astronomy, chemistry, what I used to almost take on faith I'm now growing doubtful about. This excellent blog post[0] by Columbia statistics Professor paints the state of modern Psychology research unflatteringly. And then there's this post[1] looking at a parallel universe of scientists studying, peer reviewing, and publishing (in their own journals) parapsychology (being "psychic" and all that). I'd call it "cargo cult" science, but at much more than a superficial level it resembles many "real" scientific disciplines in terms of meta analyses, p-values, etc. I personally majored in Math and Econ, and for my Econ classes I did my fair share of modeling and teasing out effects from their confounding variables, etc, and was always a little leery about it all. It doesn't really surprise me that the Fed has written that Economics, too, is suffering a replication crisis[2].

But then how far does it go, and where do I go from here? I don't have the time or inclination to study to an expert level all these soft science fields and form my own opinions. What fields are as sturdy as particle physics? Medicine? Biology? Climate change? It's a slippery slope to anti-intellectualism but I feel myself slipping.

[0] http://andrewgelman.com/2016/09/21/what-has-happened-down-he...

[1] http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/28/the-control-group-is-ou...

[2] https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2015/files/2...

Re: Economists versus the Economy

#9

>Policymakers don’t know what to do. They press the usual (and unusual) levers and nothing happens. That's not really true if they're refusing to push the Keynesian levers for ideological reasons.

Yeah, it's not exactly a mystery what is happening; many central bank policy makers (contrary to the optimistic but unsourced charters toon of QE expectations in TFA) have been quite blunt about the limitations of monetary policy, while in many large economies that have substantial impact on the global situation (especially, but not exclusively, the US) the authorities with power over fiscal policy have refused to in…

I'd say it was as much practical as it is ideological. Keynesian spending is inherently inflationary and creates jobs.

As a member of the 1%:

* Inflation is your enemy. It not only causes the value of your cash holdings to decline, it causes the value of the money you lent out to decline.

* Creating jobs is your enemy. If you employ people you want as little competition for labor as possible to reduce your wage bill and the wage bill of the companies you invest in.

Re: Economists versus the Economy

#10
post #5

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2016/10/brad-delong-end...

Exactly. This is the real reason why economists get it so wrong: their incentives.

Brad DeLong in particular is a real piece of work: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/06/clinton-loyalist-autc...

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