A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing • Hacker News Board

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#161

Post by mynameisvlad » Wed, Dec 28, 2016, 1:56 AM UTC

snowwindwaves wrote: post #159

mynameisvlad wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Masonry dam had quite a different problem which is just that there was too much water and it couldn't keep up, so water spilled over the side about 6000ft away from the dam. The problem with the Mosul dam is that it's built on soluble rock that could be swept away with enough pressure. Yes, too much water is the cause of both failures, but they're quite different.

do you have a better link to information on Masonry dam? My information is second hand from a hydro electric turbine expert. He clearly stated to me that the dam was built in a location that was geotechnically unsuitable so water flooded underground channels due to the pressure of the water behind the dam and popped up all over the place. A nearby lake level raised a bunch. I might have got the wrong link. "masonry d…

Heh, I was originally going to ask you for more information before my comment because the link wasn't the most descriptive on that incident, but briefly mentions that it happened 6000 feet away from the dam, which got me curious. I think had some more luck searching for "Boxley Creek 1918" or "Boxley Burst" which was the name of the actual incident. http://www.historylink.org/File/2426 was the first result on Google.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#162

Post by int_19h » Wed, Dec 28, 2016, 7:27 AM UTC

germinalphrase wrote: post #117

Someone wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sentence folllowing that starts with But . 'Crash repair job' also doesn't instill confidence that it is a given this will work. Also, this dam still is close to a war zone, if not in a war zone. That updated equipment may not make it there, can get destroyed in an attack, or the personnel doing the work can be 'persuaded' not to work or may outright be killed. What surprises me most about this story is that they…

Or, the existence of a functioning dam is of benefit to ISIS so they are less likely to destroy it (causing a catastrophe) than they would be if electrical supplies were cut off (?).

It would be of a great benefit for them to see the dam destroyed, if they could convincingly pin it on the Iraqi government and/or Western countries.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#163

Post by hvidgaard » Wed, Dec 28, 2016, 7:34 AM UTC

Filligree wrote: post #80

hvidgaard wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could use it to boil some of the water away? A win/win if you're not a civilian relying on the power that is.

Well, on the assumption that it'd work... Now you've got a dam full of boiling water. And as you'll know from cleaning dishes, boiling water is far better at dissolving minerals than is cold water.

You pump water into a boiler, not just submerging a giant heater into the dam.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#164

Post by hvidgaard » Wed, Dec 28, 2016, 7:35 AM UTC

VLM wrote: post #124

Filligree wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, on the assumption that it'd work... Now you've got a dam full of boiling water. And as you'll know from cleaning dishes, boiling water is far better at dissolving minerals than is cold water.

I'm curious why you guys want to boil the upstream water instead of the downstream water.

To reduce the amount of water behind the dam. I'm sure using the power to power pumps would be a better at that task though.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#165

Post by TazeTSchnitzel » Wed, Dec 28, 2016, 8:22 AM UTC

tw04 wrote: post #156

TazeTSchnitzel wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not like the problem of training disappears with machine learning. What if the person maintaining the ML algorithm is hit by a bus? What if the algorithm needs adapting? etc.

Then someone else picks up the code and continues maintaining it. You can read through documentation and existing code. You can't extract information from a dead guys brain...

What stops a human from documenting a process in writing?

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#166

Post by disposablezero » Wed, Dec 28, 2016, 8:22 AM UTC

A bigger problem than both: the 100-1000x atmospheric mass in methane calthrates bubbling up from the ESAS that have the potential to push climate change beyond +6 ℃. Get ready for high food prices, more failed states (and more mob armed cults), regional WMD wars and mass exoduses.

It sounds rhetorical and impossible at first glance if the evidence including satellite measurements and field observations weren't so definitive. Preppers don't sound so insane at first but they're probably not thinking about sustainable semi/off-grid living in a radically-altered climate.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#167

Post by livestyle » Wed, Dec 28, 2016, 10:38 AM UTC

This is eerily similar to Bitter Lake.. http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x35szal

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#168

Post by mark_edward » Wed, Dec 28, 2016, 12:11 PM UTC

tw04 wrote: post #155

awinder wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm assuming you'd deal with bus factor as everyone else who has ever relied on human labor has done -- training, more than 1 person who knows how to do a given job, etc. The world's still buzzing even though we've lived through thousands of years of people dying, I think we've had enough time to figure this one out.

> human labor has done -- training, more than 1 person who knows how to do a given job, etc Except we're not talking about standard human labor. The guy isn't building bricks, he's maintaining a damn through "feel". That's not something that can just be easily trained. By your logic, explain why we can't buy a new Stradivarius today. Obviously we dealt with the problem of just training someone else to do the same job…

We can build violins that equal or surpass Strads in many measures. Strads are not varied because they are technically unbeatable, they are valued for the same reason art is.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#169

Post by hueving » Wed, Dec 28, 2016, 12:27 PM UTC

gpm wrote: post #139

griffinkelly wrote: post #132

I have a close friend that is is the Army Corps of Engineers at the dam. Despite being deployed to the dam months ago, she's seen sporadic time at the dam due to ISIS in the area. Every time they even get close the higher ups decide to evacuate the American engineers, can't say what's been decided for the others. During the recent Mosul Offensive, they were away from the dam the entire time. She was also telling me t…

> ISIS didn't manage any real structural damage to the dam. This makes it sound like they were intentionally trying to destroy the damn, were they? I'm not an expert but it seems like it should be easy for a military group controlling a damn to blow it up if they wanted to. Though the article mentions that it was built to be resistant against air strikes, so maybe not?

Particularly since the article mentions that the electrical generation from the dam puts money in ISIS's pockets.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#170

Post by huxley » Wed, Dec 28, 2016, 12:33 PM UTC

drzaiusapelord wrote: post #138

bogomipz wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has been a pattern that has been seen over and over in Iraq. Contractors come in an build "state of the art" infrastructure to repair or replace existing infrastructure. This in itself is not a problem per se. There are two issues. One is the local population lacks the training and expertise to run and maintain this "state of the art" infrastructure. Not that they couldn't become capable because they certainly c…

I'm not sure if your point is applicable here. This is a dam from 1986, not some new fangled contraption no one understands. It has a known maintenance schedule and is old school technology. The problem is, ISIS decided to murder or chase off the staff who maintains the dam and didn't keep up with the work it needs. Worse, the construction was done "on the cheap" as dictated by the Hussein regime. Instead of digging…

Iraq had a lot of money back then and like in much of the developing world, mega-projects were sought after (and not just by despots).

The Mosul Dam was not built cheaply, it was rushed to completion to meet some idiotic deadline. The other options would likely not have cost much more (especially considering maintenance), but it would have taken more time.

And it was "first-world style", the consultants and construction firms were European just like the ones that built Kariba Dam. They had no problem building it nor any problem cashing the cheques.