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Facebook is Dying

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Re: Facebook is Dying

#31

Post by michaelkeenan »

I'd like to bet against the notion that Facebook is dying. I suggest this metric: on May 7, 2015, Facebook will still be one of the top five websites in the USA, measured by Alexa traffic ranking (http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/Facebook.com), and it will still be the most popular social networking website in the USA, again measured by Alexa traffic rankings.

USD$200, winnings go to the winner's favorite charity? Feel free to suggest different terms, metrics, betting amounts, or to make it a personal bet, not a charitable bet.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#32

Post by dtby »

michaelkeenan wrote: post #31

I'd like to bet against the notion that Facebook is dying. I suggest this metric: on May 7, 2015, Facebook will still be one of the top five websites in the USA, measured by Alexa traffic ranking ( http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/Facebook.com ), and it will still be the most popular social networking website in the USA, again measured by Alexa traffic rankings. USD$200, winnings go to the winner's favorite charity? Fee…

Book it.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#33

Post by fnid2 »

michaelkeenan wrote: post #31

I'd like to bet against the notion that Facebook is dying. I suggest this metric: on May 7, 2015, Facebook will still be one of the top five websites in the USA, measured by Alexa traffic ranking ( http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/Facebook.com ), and it will still be the most popular social networking website in the USA, again measured by Alexa traffic rankings. USD$200, winnings go to the winner's favorite charity? Fee…

I'll take the top 5 metric charity bet. I bet that by May 7, 2015, Facebook will not be in the top 5 sites as ranked by Alexa.

I think it's an easy metric free of dispute. In 5 years, we may argue, "What is a social network?"

But I highly doubt facebook will be in the top 5.

I choose my high school as the recipient of your money when I win. :) I'll be back here in 5 years to see who the winner is. Adding an item to my calendar now. Will respond to this post with the identity of the recipient institution.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#34

Post by sasmith »

fnid2 wrote: post #33
michaelkeenan wrote: post #31

I'd like to bet against the notion that Facebook is dying. I suggest this metric: on May 7, 2015, Facebook will still be one of the top five websites in the USA, measured by Alexa traffic ranking ( http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/Facebook.com ), and it will still be the most popular social networking website in the USA, again measured by Alexa traffic rankings. USD$200, winnings go to the winner's favorite charity? Fee…

I'll take the top 5 metric charity bet. I bet that by May 7, 2015, Facebook will not be in the top 5 sites as ranked by Alexa. I think it's an easy metric free of dispute. In 5 years, we may argue, "What is a social network?" But I highly doubt facebook will be in the top 5. I choose my high school as the recipient of your money when I win. :) I'll be back here in 5 years to see who the winner is. Adding an item to m…

What if Alexa is no longer around?

Re: Facebook is Dying

#35

Post by fnid2 »

sasmith wrote: post #34
fnid2 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll take the top 5 metric charity bet. I bet that by May 7, 2015, Facebook will not be in the top 5 sites as ranked by Alexa. I think it's an easy metric free of dispute. In 5 years, we may argue, "What is a social network?" But I highly doubt facebook will be in the top 5. I choose my high school as the recipient of your money when I win. :) I'll be back here in 5 years to see who the winner is. Adding an item to m…

What if Alexa is no longer around?

Yeah, I thought about that, or what if HN isn't around. There is http://www.longbets.org This is the perfect bet for there.

If alexa isn't around, we can substitute the most popular website ranking website.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#36

Post by qeorge »

fnid2 wrote: post #35
sasmith wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if Alexa is no longer around?

Yeah, I thought about that, or what if HN isn't around. There is http://www.longbets.org This is the perfect bet for there. If alexa isn't around, we can substitute the most popular website ranking website.

LongBets.org is awesome! Thanks for sharing it.

This wager is tailor made for it.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#38

Post by julio_the_squid »

fnid2 wrote: post #2

As a consultant to the dot-com industry around the turn of the century, I traveled a lot. I took a lot of long cab rides from airports to downtowns. I talked to lots of cabbies. At some point, I knew the end was near. I knew the end was near when cabbies started asking me if it was a good idea to invest in some particular technology stock or another. Why are cabbies investing in Juniper Networks? Recently, I started…

That's funny, I often think of a similar maxim in the book "Groucho and Me" by Groucho Marx. Essentially, he said that in 1928-29, he knew it was time to get out of a certain stock once his taxi driver started talking about it.

It's a great book, you can find most of the text here : http://books.google.com/books?id=tFsnGr2SQJ0C&printsec=f... though I can't find the section about the cab driver. The whole part about the 1929 stock crash is great.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#40

Post by pyre »

faramarz wrote: post #15
jacquesm wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They seem to be somewhat desperate though, judging by the sign-off screen: http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/what_happens_when_you_d...

Thats not desperate, that's a great retention technique! Every startup can learn from this. If you don't have a practice to retain your users, you don't care about the success of your business.

That's a retention technique in the same way that, "Don't break up with me! I Love You!" is a relationship reparation technique.
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