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Facebook is Dying

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Re: Facebook is Dying

#21

Post by m0th87 »

jacquesm wrote: post #13
m0th87 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My technically inept family members have been using Google for years. But I don't see their shares tumbling.

I'm sorry, I don't see your point. Could you elaborate?

I think it's a false dichotomy to compare the tech bubble with facebook. The former was an economic phenomenon that was dependent on the continued supply of new money from increasingly clueless investors (essentially a pyramid scheme, like all bubbles). The latter is a business with a ton of users and a disturbing amount of information on those users. They have several options for further monetization that don't necessitate unsustainable growth.

I do hope facebook fails because of its stance on privacy, among other issues. But I don't think its situation is at all comparable to that of the tech bubble.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#22

Post by fnid2 »

jacquesm wrote: post #8

We're all dying, but that doesn't mean we'll be dying tomorrow. Titles like that should come with a qualifying end-date. Otherwise it's just about some undefined point in the future. If facebook is dying I'd like to see some proof. I'm very much of the opinion that facebook is transient, but I'd be very careful to stick an end-date on it smaller than at least 5 years in to the future, and a lot can happen in 5 years.…

It's much easier to predict what will happen than it is to predict when.

For example, I can make the following predictions:

  Facebook will collapse
  India and China will erupt into violent war
  We will experience a water crisis
  Oil will run out  (that one is actually easier, about 3 decades)
  Iran will be invaded
These are all fairly obvious predictions. Sometimes math can be used to zero in on dates, but for most of us around here, we simply do not have enough information to calculate exact dates. We can only speculate.

The article is analyzing the future of facebook, saying today, that it will not be around at some point, which is contrary to many current opinions.

But I say the media will start to discuss an inflection point in Facebook before the end of the summer. They'll talk about how its oldest users are leaving, but its still getting new members. It will talk about a decline in the length of the average lifetime of a facebook account. It will say fewer people are logging in as much. Fewer new apps are being developed. Again, all by the end of the summer.

By the end of this year, we'll start to see lots of "will xyz.com replace facebook?" Apple could launch a social network. Bloggers/journalists will ask, "When will apple create a social network?" They'll start to point out growth in other social networks, they'll talk about where the facebookers are going. All this by the end of 2010.

By the end of 2011, facebook will be passe among the internet elite. The oprahs of the real world will start saying you can interact with them somewhere other than facebook. Commercials on TV will mention some other network instead of mentioning their facebook page like they do now.

By the end of 2012, the blogosphere will be talking about what mark did wrong, why people thought it was different, why it was the same, lessons the new start up social networks can learn from his mistakes.

By the end of 2013, facebook will be a distant memory...

Re: Facebook is Dying

#23

Post by patrickgzill »

fnid2 wrote: post #2

As a consultant to the dot-com industry around the turn of the century, I traveled a lot. I took a lot of long cab rides from airports to downtowns. I talked to lots of cabbies. At some point, I knew the end was near. I knew the end was near when cabbies started asking me if it was a good idea to invest in some particular technology stock or another. Why are cabbies investing in Juniper Networks? Recently, I started…

It will fall, no doubt about that, however you are early on the curve and thus are underestimating the amount of time it will take to first hit its apogee and then decline.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#24

Post by fnid2 »

kristiandupont wrote: post #20
fnid2 wrote: post #2

As a consultant to the dot-com industry around the turn of the century, I traveled a lot. I took a lot of long cab rides from airports to downtowns. I talked to lots of cabbies. At some point, I knew the end was near. I knew the end was near when cabbies started asking me if it was a good idea to invest in some particular technology stock or another. Why are cabbies investing in Juniper Networks? Recently, I started…

You've known for years that the end is near for Facebook and yet facebook has been and is growing insanely. I am tempted to repeat jacquesm's comment about all os us dying above..

No, now... You're putting words into my mouth. I have known for years that people would complain about facebook's privacy violations and their pressure to make money would cause a user revolt. I've also said they will change their privacy policies to the worst interest of their users.

Don't discount the validity of that prediction simply because I did not put a time stamp on it.

Many people have said, and probably will say soon, that facebook will always be around and always be part of our lives and as integral to it as television. Those predictions are bad predictions, yet people argue them.

I did put some date based predictions in another comment above, what is your prediction?

Re: Facebook is Dying

#25

Post by mburney »

I check my facebook account quite often but don't actually use it for anything. Only about 5% of my friends frequently update their status. It is strange how the habit has remained with me despite the content being no longer relevant to my life.

Reminds me of what Nietzsche said about religion. God is dead (even though churches are not).

Does anyone have statistics on the ratio of "facebook site hits"-to-"actual usage"?

Re: Facebook is Dying

#26

Post by mburney »

faramarz wrote: post #12

What a crock of shit. Pardon my french. If you're going to close your account, the world doesn't need to hear about it. Those of you jumping on the bandwagon to close your accounts probably can't come up with a real reason why you joined the service in the first place. So stop your whining. 2 bloggers ranting about their demise doesn't count for the rest of the population. Facebook is here to stay. you know why? beca…

But how often do you and your family make any meaningful use out of it? A pattern I've seen is that people join, have an active wall for a couple weeks and then they just go back to using sms and email for keeping in touch with each other.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#27

Post by zalew »

jacquesm wrote: post #8

We're all dying, but that doesn't mean we'll be dying tomorrow. Titles like that should come with a qualifying end-date. Otherwise it's just about some undefined point in the future. If facebook is dying I'd like to see some proof. I'm very much of the opinion that facebook is transient, but I'd be very careful to stick an end-date on it smaller than at least 5 years in to the future, and a lot can happen in 5 years.…

While recently there has been a flood of such articles and most of them are full of bs, I think this one collects a lot of good points. Their rich functionality is starting to eat its own tail.

FB will not die tomorrow for sure, but the way people use it will for sure move them outside its frontpage. FB first focused on the 'fb connect', now on the api, like button, etc. - they will stay for long as the backend for social connections and data/media collection, but people will roll out of their frontpage sooner or later. The same factors that made the website so amazing, now are making it confusing and harder to use.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#29

Post by kristiandupont »

fnid2 wrote: post #24
kristiandupont wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've known for years that the end is near for Facebook and yet facebook has been and is growing insanely. I am tempted to repeat jacquesm's comment about all os us dying above..

No, now... You're putting words into my mouth. I have known for years that people would complain about facebook's privacy violations and their pressure to make money would cause a user revolt. I've also said they will change their privacy policies to the worst interest of their users. Don't discount the validity of that prediction simply because I did not put a time stamp on it. Many people have said, and probably wi…

I have not seen anyone predict that Facebook will last forever. I personally wouldn't say that about any company.

I myself predicted that apps would be the demise of fb. I received so many invites that I couldn't keep up - and it was accelerating. But they solved that problem by taking apps off of peoples primary pages. App developers complained and some probably missed showing what kind of ninja they were, but looking at it now, it looks like they made the right decision. I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to fix current problems as well.

Re: Facebook is Dying

#30

Post by badave »

Well, something can only grow exponentially for so long.... It's growth might be dying. It might be reaching its teenage years. Unfortunately it's only a matter of time before its a big company that can't keep its startup mentality.
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