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A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

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Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#131

Post by awinder »

tw04 wrote: post #129
xg15 wrote: post #125

Slightly off-topic: > Up close, the work is wet, improvisatory, and deeply inexact. [...] Like his boss, Jabouri has worked at the dam since he was a young engineering graduate. Now, he told me, he is as sensitive to the dam’s changes as the electronic gear buzzing around him. [...] “We feel our way through,” Jabouri said, standing by the pump. Generally, smaller cavities require thinner grout, so Jabouri started wit…

What happens if Jabouri gets hit by a bus? I love a good craftsman as much as anyone, but when the lives of that many people rely on one person, you're just asking for a disaster.

I'm assuming you'd deal with bus factor as everyone else who has ever relied on human labor has done -- training, more than 1 person who knows how to do a given job, etc. The world's still buzzing even though we've lived through thousands of years of people dying, I think we've had enough time to figure this one out.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#132

Post by griffinkelly »

I have a close friend that is is the Army Corps of Engineers at the dam. Despite being deployed to the dam months ago, she's seen sporadic time at the dam due to ISIS in the area. Every time they even get close the higher ups decide to evacuate the American engineers, can't say what's been decided for the others. During the recent Mosul Offensive, they were away from the dam the entire time.

She was also telling me that during the time that ISIS held the dam, they managed to booby trap the entire place. They had multiple Iraqi workers killed in bathrooms from traps set. However, ISIS didn't manage any real structural damage to the dam.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#133

Post by awinder »

bogomipz wrote: post #128
Someone wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sentence folllowing that starts with But . 'Crash repair job' also doesn't instill confidence that it is a given this will work. Also, this dam still is close to a war zone, if not in a war zone. That updated equipment may not make it there, can get destroyed in an attack, or the personnel doing the work can be 'persuaded' not to work or may outright be killed. What surprises me most about this story is that they…

This has been a pattern that has been seen over and over in Iraq. Contractors come in an build "state of the art" infrastructure to repair or replace existing infrastructure. This in itself is not a problem per se. There are two issues. One is the local population lacks the training and expertise to run and maintain this "state of the art" infrastructure. Not that they couldn't become capable because they certainly c…

From the article it sounded like they were upkeeping the dam just fine, until ISIS came through and chased off the workers and maintenance wasn't performed. But I haven't read that book and this is just one article, just genuinely curious cause that seemed like a discrepancy.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#134

Post by abakker »

SEJeff wrote: post #122
impostervt wrote: post #14

Dexter Filkins, the writer of this piece, is also the author of one of the best non-fiction books I've ever read - The Forever War (not the space war book). The Forever War https://www.amazon.com/dp/0307279448/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_OWDy...

You really should consider reading Ian M Banks's Culture series novels if you like that. He's widely considered to be the best sci-fi author in the UK (He's scottish). I'd certainly put the culture series close to par with Ender's Game and the Dune novels. They're most excellent.

Start with Consider Phlebas. It's the easiest to start with, but also not completely representative of what the series ends up being. I highly recommend Banks.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#136

Post by TazeTSchnitzel »

awinder wrote: post #131
tw04 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens if Jabouri gets hit by a bus? I love a good craftsman as much as anyone, but when the lives of that many people rely on one person, you're just asking for a disaster.

I'm assuming you'd deal with bus factor as everyone else who has ever relied on human labor has done -- training, more than 1 person who knows how to do a given job, etc. The world's still buzzing even though we've lived through thousands of years of people dying, I think we've had enough time to figure this one out.

It's not like the problem of training disappears with machine learning. What if the person maintaining the ML algorithm is hit by a bus? What if the algorithm needs adapting? etc.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#137

Post by TazeTSchnitzel »

exabrial wrote: post #118

I'm curious to what ratio an abusive regime is affected by general sanctions vs the populace under its authoritarian control. Sad to see so many people living in poverty from a dictator, then sanctions, then an invasion, now ISIS (And a dam apparently). I don't know what the solution is, but that area of the world just cannot find peace.

> I'm curious to what ratio an abusive regime is affected by general sanctions vs the populace under its authoritarian control.

Inevitably the sanctions will hurt the general populace more than the people in power. However, that might reduce the popularity of the leader and ultimately help their downfall, perhaps.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#138

Post by drzaiusapelord »

bogomipz wrote: post #128
Someone wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sentence folllowing that starts with But . 'Crash repair job' also doesn't instill confidence that it is a given this will work. Also, this dam still is close to a war zone, if not in a war zone. That updated equipment may not make it there, can get destroyed in an attack, or the personnel doing the work can be 'persuaded' not to work or may outright be killed. What surprises me most about this story is that they…

This has been a pattern that has been seen over and over in Iraq. Contractors come in an build "state of the art" infrastructure to repair or replace existing infrastructure. This in itself is not a problem per se. There are two issues. One is the local population lacks the training and expertise to run and maintain this "state of the art" infrastructure. Not that they couldn't become capable because they certainly c…

I'm not sure if your point is applicable here. This is a dam from 1986, not some new fangled contraption no one understands. It has a known maintenance schedule and is old school technology. The problem is, ISIS decided to murder or chase off the staff who maintains the dam and didn't keep up with the work it needs.

Worse, the construction was done "on the cheap" as dictated by the Hussein regime. Instead of digging deeply into the delicate and soluble gypsum and grouting properly, the engineers were forced to use a shallow blanket-grout technique which simply requires more maintenance going forward as it failed to stop dissolution. Grouting on this dam is done six days a week. That's right, every day but Sunday since 1986. ISIS's pause of this created this crisis.

Contrary to your point, if it was done "first world style" it would be a much more stable dam, but instead the Hussein regime was too busy buying palaces and gold toilets to care too much about getting large scale projects right. Iraqis now much pay forward the technical debt of the shallow blanket grout until the dam is decommissioned. There is no alternative here and this dam should be a study of autocratic regime's attempts at cost savings which ultimately cost more in the long run and may eventually cause a human rights disaster. I believe 1m people are at risk of drowning if this dam collapses. These are non-trivial numbers.

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#139

Post by gpm »

griffinkelly wrote: post #132

I have a close friend that is is the Army Corps of Engineers at the dam. Despite being deployed to the dam months ago, she's seen sporadic time at the dam due to ISIS in the area. Every time they even get close the higher ups decide to evacuate the American engineers, can't say what's been decided for the others. During the recent Mosul Offensive, they were away from the dam the entire time. She was also telling me t…

> ISIS didn't manage any real structural damage to the dam.

This makes it sound like they were intentionally trying to destroy the damn, were they?

I'm not an expert but it seems like it should be easy for a military group controlling a damn to blow it up if they wanted to. Though the article mentions that it was built to be resistant against air strikes, so maybe not?

Re: A bigger problem than ISIS: The Mosul Dam is failing

#140

Post by acjohnson55 »

bogomipz wrote: post #128
Someone wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sentence folllowing that starts with But . 'Crash repair job' also doesn't instill confidence that it is a given this will work. Also, this dam still is close to a war zone, if not in a war zone. That updated equipment may not make it there, can get destroyed in an attack, or the personnel doing the work can be 'persuaded' not to work or may outright be killed. What surprises me most about this story is that they…

This has been a pattern that has been seen over and over in Iraq. Contractors come in an build "state of the art" infrastructure to repair or replace existing infrastructure. This in itself is not a problem per se. There are two issues. One is the local population lacks the training and expertise to run and maintain this "state of the art" infrastructure. Not that they couldn't become capable because they certainly c…

I've heard though that, until the war at least, Iraq had a fairly top-notch science and engineering corps.

I'd speculate that this might be due to Baathist secularism and militarism, as well as the areas legacy of being arguably the intellectual center of the Muslim world.

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