I think this is great look at walking through the analysis. I too experienced a huge spike in NTP traffic in 2014 but it was because of people exploiting NTP for reflection attacks to DDOS other parties. The forced me to use a GPS module and a Beaglebone Black as an internal time server (which has been great)
I have a few questions about that if you have a minute: What GPS module did you go with and is it still available? Did you have problems getting signal inside (need to be by a window, run an antenna, etc)?
I put the GPS antenna on my window sill, it has no problem at all staying locked. My plan had been to stick it outside the window but turned out not to be necessary.