Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy in almost 60 countries • Hacker News Board

Re: Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy in almost 60 countries

#41

Post by diafygi » Sat, Dec 24, 2016, 6:39 PM UTC

protomyth wrote: post #36

diafygi wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd recommend treating it as a normal HVAC or construction project. Call local contractors who have experience in the area and climate, get bids and recommendations, then choose a contractor. Most solar contractors either have financing options (like car dealerships) or can point you to one (like realtors). Also, try to find someone who has solar and talk to them. In smaller markets like this, local experience is imp…

My problem is that we really don't have any local experienced outfits. Chicken and egg problem I'd imagine.

I suppose. Electrical contractors are usually the ones with the closest experience to solar installation, so they are usually the ones who start installing systems in a new market first (then the national solar brands start offering packages, too). Might want to reach out to local electrical contractors to see if they have any NABCEP training.

Re: Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy in almost 60 countries

#42

Post by kozikow » Sat, Dec 24, 2016, 6:41 PM UTC

diafygi wrote: post #15

jgh wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know next to nothing about Solar so pardon my ignorance, but what do you suppose the solar industry is looking for from the software industry?

Thanks for the comment! Gotcha, yes, it does take quite a bit of understanding of the dynamics and incentives of the industry to see how important software is to the industry. Here's a rundown of the problems that software can solve. Front End and User Experience: Customer acquisition costs in the U.S. for distributed solar is extremely high. Think of cleantech sales like the insurance industry 20 years ago. Most of…

Are solar panel inspections via drone a thing? E.g. find cracks in panels, locate all panels in the area, detect bad modules, etc.

Shameless plug: We (tensorflight.com) do computer vision on drone imagery and heard a customer asking about solar panels. We are in Mountain View, so please get in touch if you have use case in mind.

Re: Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy in almost 60 countries

#43

Post by i2amsam » Sat, Dec 24, 2016, 6:48 PM UTC

jaclaz wrote: post #24

waynenilsen wrote: post #10

* after subsidies

... and without taking into account that after 15 or 20 - maybe 25 - years the panels will need to be replaced. How "clean" is disposing of these depleted slabs of glass and silicon (or whatever other elements)? How much will it cost?

How "clean" is taking off the top of a mountain for coal?

Compare the costs of restoring a mountain after we tear it down, extract the coal and burn it into the atmosphere. How much will that cost? What about moving cities inland? will that be more expensive than recycling solar panels?

There is no perfect energy system, but the status quo is clearly unsustainable, and solar disposal is a much more tractable problem than destructive extraction and atmospheric pollution.

Re: Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy in almost 60 countries

#44

Post by jaclaz » Sat, Dec 24, 2016, 6:51 PM UTC

woodruffw wrote: post #25

jaclaz wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... and without taking into account that after 15 or 20 - maybe 25 - years the panels will need to be replaced. How "clean" is disposing of these depleted slabs of glass and silicon (or whatever other elements)? How much will it cost?

It seems like most manufacturers have a 20/25-year standard, meaning that their panels should still be capable of producing 80% of their peak efficiency after 20/25 years in the field [1]. A 20% decrease over 20/25 years isn't bad at all. Compare that to the 3-4 automobiles that the average American family might buy during that period, or the normal 30-40 year lifespan of a coal generator [2]. Recycling glass and sil…

The 20 or maybe 25 years duration is not bad at all in itself, but before or later it has to be done, and usually noone talks about that when illustrating the "advantages" and "cleanness" of the solution.

I was not saying that disposing properly of such materials is not "straightforward", only that its costs (as well as those for the disposal of batteries, thanks _red for mentioning them) are rarely included in most cost estimations.

In EU countries it is now (since around 2012-2014 depending on the country) at least in theory OK - since you pay the cost of disposal to the manufacturer at install time, and when the plant will be depleted you can have the panels disposed for free (your money goes indirectly to a consortium for disposal of electronics goods).

Re: Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy in almost 60 countries

#45

Post by woodruffw » Sat, Dec 24, 2016, 6:54 PM UTC

lappa wrote: post #40

woodruffw wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We also subsidize the coal and oil industries by not aggressively factoring the externalities they produce into their taxation.

Energy Source Subsidy per kwh Externalities per kwh Coal $0.0006 ~$0.02 Natural Gas $0.0006 ~$0.01 Nuclear $0.0031 (unspecified) Renewables $0.0154 (unspecified) Biomass Power $0.0020 (unspecified) Geothermal $0.0125 (unspecified) Hydroelectric $0.0008 (unspecified) Solar $0.9680 (unspecified) Wind $0.0525 (unspecified) http://environmentblog.ncpa.org/which-energy-source-receives...

Those calculated externalities seem to be based on a fixed carbon tax. They don't take into account the human cost of living near a coal-fired plant (including productivity loss!), the financial damage of oil and oil-byproduct spills, or water table pollution from fracking.

Each of these externalities, in turn, has consequences of their own -- fewer tourists, increased cost-of-living from bottled watter, higher medical bills from persistent lung and throat disorders. If harm to individuals isn't compelling, consider the danger of a polluted water table to predominantly agricultural areas.

The NCPA doesn't consider these realities in their flat estimation and, based on their sources of funding, are not likely to in the near future [1].

[1]: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/jul/01/exxon-mo...

Re: Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy in almost 60 countries

#46

Post by woodruffw » Sat, Dec 24, 2016, 7:01 PM UTC

jaclaz wrote: post #44

woodruffw wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like most manufacturers have a 20/25-year standard, meaning that their panels should still be capable of producing 80% of their peak efficiency after 20/25 years in the field [1]. A 20% decrease over 20/25 years isn't bad at all. Compare that to the 3-4 automobiles that the average American family might buy during that period, or the normal 30-40 year lifespan of a coal generator [2]. Recycling glass and sil…

The 20 or maybe 25 years duration is not bad at all in itself, but before or later it has to be done, and usually noone talks about that when illustrating the "advantages" and "cleanness" of the solution. I was not saying that disposing properly of such materials is not "straightforward", only that its costs (as well as those for the disposal of batteries, thanks _red for mentioning them) are rarely included in most…

Certainly. I chalk that up a certain amount of optimism surrounding solar energy (and renewables in general), not willful ignorance of the real costs of deploying any sort of infrastructure on a national scale.

Based on what you said, the EU seems to have figured out a responsible way to handle those costs, at least on the individual level.

Re: Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy in almost 60 countries

#47

Post by diafygi » Sat, Dec 24, 2016, 7:04 PM UTC

kozikow wrote: post #42

diafygi wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the comment! Gotcha, yes, it does take quite a bit of understanding of the dynamics and incentives of the industry to see how important software is to the industry. Here's a rundown of the problems that software can solve. Front End and User Experience: Customer acquisition costs in the U.S. for distributed solar is extremely high. Think of cleantech sales like the insurance industry 20 years ago. Most of…

Are solar panel inspections via drone a thing? E.g. find cracks in panels, locate all panels in the area, detect bad modules, etc. Shameless plug: We (tensorflight.com) do computer vision on drone imagery and heard a customer asking about solar panels. We are in Mountain View, so please get in touch if you have use case in mind.

Not really. You can remotely tell if a system is broken based on the power it producing, and you usually clean the panels at least every few years. So any cracks would be discovered relatively quickly, but they are pretty rare anyway. The glass they use to protect the panels is super strong, and designed to withstand large hail. The only time I've seen broken panels is when someone hits a baseball into one.

However, drone imagery is heavily used in the solar industry for roof inspection. For rooftop solar, you need to inspect the roof to make sure the panels will fit and won't be obstructed. Google maps can give you a ballpark, but closer imagery is needed. There's a few companies doing this (Solar Census, Google Sunroof, Sun Number, etc.), so might check them out.

FYI, the coolest cleantech application I've see for areal imagery is Ceres Imaging, who flies over crops to detect where you need to water. Something like a 50%+ water savings because you can target water to where it's needed. Crazy effective.

Re: Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy in almost 60 countries

#48

Post by clay_to_n » Sat, Dec 24, 2016, 7:05 PM UTC

diafygi wrote: post #17

planteen wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't seem like there is a ton of need for software in solar, but I could be wrong. It seems to me that solar technology is mostly in line of something like a power semiconductor. You need lots of people who understand semiconductor physics and process to manufacture the panels. Then an EE puts is all together. There is software at all of those steps, but it seems to be more of a cost than the primary product.

You're right, there isn't a lot of software in the solar panels themselves (they are indeed just a semiconductor). However, that's not where the costs are. Only about 34% of the cost of a solar installation is actual hardware. 64% of the installed cost is customer acquisition, overhead, engineering, labor, etc[1]. These are all costs that can be optimized with software. For example, my startup focuses on automating t…

This is true, but software engineers often prefer to work in software-driven companies instead of companies where software is used to reduce costs.

They feel valued more in co's where software is the main source of profit - this is the same reason a lot of software engineers aren't excited to work for the big companies in the (massive) retail industry, or infrastructure more generally, which also are "scaling problems".

Solar has some appeal in that it has large long-term impact, and nerdy problems - but I think it's still less appealing generally than space, or maybe medicine, let alone tech companies where the core product is software.

Re: Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy in almost 60 countries

#49

Post by diafygi » Sat, Dec 24, 2016, 7:13 PM UTC

cderwin wrote: post #37

diafygi wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the comment! Gotcha, yes, it does take quite a bit of understanding of the dynamics and incentives of the industry to see how important software is to the industry. Here's a rundown of the problems that software can solve. Front End and User Experience: Customer acquisition costs in the U.S. for distributed solar is extremely high. Think of cleantech sales like the insurance industry 20 years ago. Most of…

> If there's anything we've learned on HN, IoT software is complete shit when it comes to security. Yes, but I think most people here will till you it's not because of a lack of engineering talent. Rather security takes time and a lot of money (in particular security engineers) and IoT companies would rather do without for the most part. And even if you do pay the price it doesn't always work out. It's not an enginee…

True, however since the distributed energy resource (DER) IoT (inverters, thermostats, etc.) is more critical to grid infrastructure than your WiFi router, there's a bit more incentive to start doing more security testing on these deployed devices. Consumers won't pay for the better security, but grids likely will.

Maybe it will take a huge hack to push the industry into requiring better DER security, or maybe an ambitious security firm could hop on this early and control the market. Either way, eventually we're going to end up with a set of security requirements for DERs that need to be tested and certified.

Seems like a good opportunity for some ambitious tech cybersecurity startups. DERs are a really new sector of the energy industry, so there aren't any entrenched security firms (like there are in the wholesale grid). It's an open field for ambitious entrepreneurs.

Re: Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy in almost 60 countries

#50

Post by tachyonbeam » Sat, Dec 24, 2016, 7:18 PM UTC

diafygi wrote: post #17

planteen wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't seem like there is a ton of need for software in solar, but I could be wrong. It seems to me that solar technology is mostly in line of something like a power semiconductor. You need lots of people who understand semiconductor physics and process to manufacture the panels. Then an EE puts is all together. There is software at all of those steps, but it seems to be more of a cost than the primary product.

You're right, there isn't a lot of software in the solar panels themselves (they are indeed just a semiconductor). However, that's not where the costs are. Only about 34% of the cost of a solar installation is actual hardware. 64% of the installed cost is customer acquisition, overhead, engineering, labor, etc[1]. These are all costs that can be optimized with software. For example, my startup focuses on automating t…

Batteries are still a huge cost. To be truly off-grid, you need a lot of storage capacity. You could easily spend 2 to 4x as much on batteries as on PV panels right now.

The cost of batteries (or other energy storage methods) needs to go down, because PV panels on their own are just not quite good enough for residential. I'm out of the house during most or all peak hours for solar generation.

I would need one or two Tesla Powerwall 2's in order to be off-grid. I also don't have an (electric) car. If I had a car, I would need more energy storage in order to be able to charge the car at night. Though of course, electric cars might also be charged at work during the daytime, directly from PV panels