Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People

I think you're _exactly right_. This is precisely the reason the Iraq and Afghanistan wars proved too costly to prosecute was that it proved too costly in men and materials. The logistics and cost of procuring and moving weapons, vehicles, living supplies etc was high, but manageable. The cost of each body bag which had to be explained to the public was not.

Which is why President Obama pivoted to a drone war in areas like Pakistan. Scores of Pakistani civilians are killed on a regular basis for crimes no worse than standing next to a tall bearded man or attending the funeral of a neighbour. The American public has no issues with this because hey, it's cheap to deploy the drones and no American lives are ever in jeopardy. And to be fair about it, apart from the high collateral damage, the Drone War in Pakistan is generally considered to be successful at inhibiting the Pakistani Taliban.

This Drone War was the first successful war that we've seen fought without boots on the ground. It's likely that we'll see many more like this as on-board AI improves.

There's also another thing. AI may not need to be superhuman, it may be close-but-not-quite human and yet be more effective than us - simply because we carry a huge baggage of stuff that a mind we build won't have.

Trust me, if I were to be wired directly to the Internet and had some well-defined goals, I'd be much more effective at it than any of us here - possibly any of us here combined. Because as a human, I have to deal with stupid shit like social considerations, random anxiety attacks, the drive to mate, the drive of curiosity, etc. Focus is a powerful force.

If AI is able to self-improve, don't you think it will reach to a level of complexity where it will start asking, why?

> or debunking "free will"

Interesting. I thought that "free will" was utterly debunked by the economy :). Not to mention the advertising industry, which is basically applied exploitation of the limits of human "free will" :).

>The only way out of this mess is to design a moral fixed point, so that even through thousands and thousands of cycles of self-improvement the AI's value system remains stable, and its values are things like 'help people', 'don't kill anybody', 'listen to what people want'.

Bostrom absolutely did not say that the only way to inhibit a cataclysmic future for humans post-SAI was to design a "moral fixed point". In fact, many chapters of the book are dedicated to exploring the possibilities of ingraining desirable values in an AI, and the many pitfalls in each.

Regarding the Eliezer Yudkowsky quote, Bostrom spends several pages, IIRC, on that quote and how difficult it would be to apply to machine language, as well as what the quote even means. This author dismissively throws the quote in without acknowledgement of the tremendous nuance Bostrom applies to this line of thought. Indeed, this author does that throughout his article - regularly portraying Bostrom as a man who claimed absolute knowledge of the future of AI. That couldn't be further from the truth, as Bostrom opens the book with an explicit acknowledgement that much of the book may very well turn out to be incorrect, or based on assumptions that may never materialize.

Regarding "The Argument From My Roommate", the author seems to lack complete and utter awareness of the differences between a machine intelligence and human intelligence. That a superintelligent AI must have the complex motivations of the author's roommate is preposterous. A human is driven by a complex variety of push and pull factors, many stemming from the evolutionary biology of humans and our predecessors. A machine intelligence need not share any of that complexity.

Moreover, Bostrom specifically notes that while most humans may feel there is a huge gulf between the intellectual capabilities of an idiot and a genius, these are, in more absolute terms, minor differences. The fact that his roommate was/is apparently a smart individual likely would not put him anywhere near the capabilities of a superintelligent AI.

To me, this is the smoking gun. I find it completely unbelievable that anyone who read Superintelligence could possibly assert "The Argument From My Roommate" with a straight face, and thus, I highly doubt that the author actually read the book which he attacks so gratuitously.