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The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

nytimes.com

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#201

Post by jganetsk »

mcv wrote: post #196
jganetsk wrote: post #161

This is exactly wrong. Automation happened already, 200 years ago. It upended society. It was called the Industrial Revolution. Things changed dramatically, and nothing remotely of that scale is occurring now. We are suffering today not because of technological progress, but rather the contrary: the rapid technological progress of the 20th century that brought tremendous economic prosperity to humanity has finally co…

Not sure if I agree with your analysis, but I certainly agree with your solution.

That's my point. I have a contrarian analysis. You have the conventional analysis. I think the conventional wisdom is wrong. It's frustrating that people just throw out economics and history and go for some sort of post-modern analysis of "things are so different now. No one could ever have imagined robots! We can't apply classical economics to the situation" Yes they could have, yes they did, and yes we can.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#202

Post by [deleted] »

mcv wrote: post #196
jganetsk wrote: post #161

This is exactly wrong. Automation happened already, 200 years ago. It upended society. It was called the Industrial Revolution. Things changed dramatically, and nothing remotely of that scale is occurring now. We are suffering today not because of technological progress, but rather the contrary: the rapid technological progress of the 20th century that brought tremendous economic prosperity to humanity has finally co…

Not sure if I agree with your analysis, but I certainly agree with your solution.

[deleted]

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#203

Post by [deleted] »

shostack wrote: post #164
otakucode wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have done a lot of thinking about this. There are 2 things that keep sticking out to me: First, history. History does not make our future look good. Humanity has gone through a few disruptive changes in the way society viewed work and societal contribution. The most recent was with the spread of factories and assembly-line production. The result of the adoption of those structures/technologies was not good. Society…

How was the New Deal sold in to owners of capital who presumably controlled the press and political system? Would a similar approach work today?

[deleted]

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#204

Post by jganetsk »

mdorazio wrote: post #188
jganetsk wrote: post #161

This is exactly wrong. Automation happened already, 200 years ago. It upended society. It was called the Industrial Revolution. Things changed dramatically, and nothing remotely of that scale is occurring now. We are suffering today not because of technological progress, but rather the contrary: the rapid technological progress of the 20th century that brought tremendous economic prosperity to humanity has finally co…

I disagree that it's "exactly wrong", though I at the same time agree with the secular stagnation concept. It's important to remember that past revolutions in automation have destroyed one field of labor while creating another. For example, the industrial revolution destroyed hand and muscle-driven labor and replaced it with factory labor. In the US we then went from an industrial economy driven by factory jobs to a…

> It's important to remember that past revolutions in automation have destroyed one field of labor while creating another.

That's exactly right. We've been creating work to keep people busy for 200 years in many more ways than you mention. Consumerism. Marketing. Bureaucracy. We have one industry that makes people sick (food) and another industry that makes people healthy (healthcare). The twin peaks of the sickness and health industries can grow indefinitely, especially in the USA. We have industries that make plastic casings to wrap goods, just so we can sell goods to consumers, who unwrap and immediately dispose the plastic, so that another industry (sanitation) can take them away.

We basically have a society which continuously breaks glass windows and then fixes them. It's all, in some sense, pure dead weight, just to keep people employed.

So why should this stop now?

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#205

Post by cylinder »

jganetsk wrote: post #204
mdorazio wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree that it's "exactly wrong", though I at the same time agree with the secular stagnation concept. It's important to remember that past revolutions in automation have destroyed one field of labor while creating another. For example, the industrial revolution destroyed hand and muscle-driven labor and replaced it with factory labor. In the US we then went from an industrial economy driven by factory jobs to a…

> It's important to remember that past revolutions in automation have destroyed one field of labor while creating another. That's exactly right. We've been creating work to keep people busy for 200 years in many more ways than you mention. Consumerism. Marketing. Bureaucracy. We have one industry that makes people sick (food) and another industry that makes people healthy (healthcare). The twin peaks of the sickness…

The New Economy: http://www.wvgazettemail.com/news-health/20161217/drug-firms...

Think of the additional economic boost from treating these people in hospitals, or even better, prisons! Countless "jobs" will be created!

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#206

Post by cylinder »

roryisok wrote: post #195
mdorazio wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree that it's "exactly wrong", though I at the same time agree with the secular stagnation concept. It's important to remember that past revolutions in automation have destroyed one field of labor while creating another. For example, the industrial revolution destroyed hand and muscle-driven labor and replaced it with factory labor. In the US we then went from an industrial economy driven by factory jobs to a…

Even jobs in the tech sector are likely under threat. Remember that guy a few weeks ago showing an AI platform be built to design logos for customers? We're not far from having AI build our web pages, and then simple web apps, and then probably native apps, and before long, finding and patching bugs in software, and eventually writing the software itself

Even finance is being upended actively by automation and AI.

The narrative will follow the "drug war." When it's the poor people (factory workers::blacks), they're just "losers" who need to try harder or should be locked away for decades. When it's happening in upper middle and middle class suburbia (opioid epidemic::white collar automation), then it's a "public health crisis that commands our empathy!"

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#207

Post by wvenable »

cm2187 wrote: post #88
wvenable wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> tell me which people you know, in which industries, have outright 'lost their jobs' due to some AI or machine? As software developers, it's literally our jobs to put people out of work. My software is specifically designed reduce the need for increased labor as the company crows. In my industry, legal, entire departments (like night word processing) no longer exist. The fact is you cannot extrapolate from 100 years…

It is your work to increase productivity. As tedious tasks are automated, you can deploy people doing new things. As you lower the cost of the product you manufacture or service you provide, you enable more people to afford it. That's how new industries are created. I am not to worried about the amount of work available as a whole. I am more worried about the nature of the work available, which will be increasingly s…

> As tedious tasks are automated, you can deploy people doing new things.

That has not been my experience at all. As tedious tasks are automated, the people who do those tedious tasks are no longer required.

Ultimately we are lowering the cost of our "product" but it's not to enable more people to afford it. We need to do that because less people can afford the service as is and we need to cut costs just to stay in business. It's a race to the bottom, not a race to the top.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#208

Post by wvenable »

otakucode wrote: post #143
cm2187 wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is your work to increase productivity. As tedious tasks are automated, you can deploy people doing new things. As you lower the cost of the product you manufacture or service you provide, you enable more people to afford it. That's how new industries are created. I am not to worried about the amount of work available as a whole. I am more worried about the nature of the work available, which will be increasingly s…

Even better, as you have automated tools available, no one needs you any more. 'You' being the company, that is. As factories replaced craftsmen, and distribution chains replaced individual travelling merchants, I think there is a very good chance that the very structure of centralized companies with offices and on-staff employees will dissolve. You were replying to someone working in the legal field, for example. Wh…

There is a plan to start deploying Watson-like AIs in the legal field to automatically data mine for precedents and other legal resources.

> Why does the person putting together my will or litigating a suit for me need to be backed by an organization with an office building, expensive executives, etc?

These exists because they are currently necessary (they are the "tools" you speak of) but they're a pure business cost and constantly under pressure to not exist. Computers have already reduced this back-end cost immensely. For example, lawyers these days all use dictation software rather than having a secretary write out shorthand. If all the tools can be automated, they eventually will.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#209

Post by robotresearcher »

diego_moita wrote: post #194
jganetsk wrote: post #161

This is exactly wrong. Automation happened already, 200 years ago. It upended society. It was called the Industrial Revolution. Things changed dramatically, and nothing remotely of that scale is occurring now. We are suffering today not because of technological progress, but rather the contrary: the rapid technological progress of the 20th century that brought tremendous economic prosperity to humanity has finally co…

> the rapid technological progress of the 20th century that brought tremendous economic prosperity to humanity has finally come to a grinding halt Fine, I can buy that. But stagnant productivity alone doesn't generate low employment. How do you explain low employment then?

Employment is not low, so we don't need to explain it. Despite what you were told by some people at election time, the US jobless rate is 4.9% which is internationally low and has been roughly the same for 60 years. In the golden 1950s that rate was down to 4% and had a peak of 10% in the early 1980s. US employment is pretty darn stable.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#210

Post by enraged_camel »

dagw wrote: post #150
adrianN wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because self-sufficiency provides a much lower standard of living than what you can get with trade and specialization.

True when dealing with a human workforce. Not convinced it's equally true when dealing with an automated workforce. That being said, I don't see why self-sufficient villages is something to strive after even it could be done efficiently.

It's not about efficiency, but about variety. Life gets pretty mundane when you have to eat the same damn foods for every meal.
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