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The Great A.I. Awakening

nytimes.com

131–140 of 147 posts

Re: The Great A.I. Awakening

#131
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi, I can recommend using the Chrome extension 'Reedy' which allows you to blast through this at 800-1200 words/minute. You can start slower and gradually increase the speed, but once you get the hang of it, an article like this takes no more than what an ordinary article would have taken to read normally.

If your bottleneck in reading text is in scanning words from the screen, then you either don't reflect on what you read or you're reading boring things.

Mostly agree with you, but those apps can be handy when the page is formatted with 50 word lines, instead of say, 10 word lines.

Re: The Great A.I. Awakening

#132
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> When you summarize language in a similar way, you essentially produce multidimensional maps of the distances, based on common usage, between one word and every single other word in the language. The problem with word embeddings, or any distance-based model really, is that language doesn't work that way. Chomsky has a standard example he uses to make this point: "Instinctively, Eagles that fly swim". He points out…

The "distance" referenced in your quote is not distance in a sentence, it's the distance between points in this abstract embedding space. Two completely different things. The Chomsky argument isn't really relevant here.

Meh. You're totally right, of course. What the hell was I thinking? :/

Re: The Great A.I. Awakening

#133
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We don't have a proof for warp-drives same as we don't have a proof for building AGI. We don't have a warp drive to copy, no idea how one could even exist, they are not in our known universe. If we want to learn about an AGI, we just look in the mirror.

Fine. Show me the proof and we'll build it. ... except there is no proof. We have no proof but we talk about it like its a given. We talk about "intelligence" as if its an integer value that scales from 0 to infinity. These are ideas that we do not question enough. I assert that its a possibility that we are incapable of building ourselves beyond reproduction.

>I assert that its a possibility

Possibility means probability. So there is also the probability that we can build ASI, in which we should be very careful in our wanton abandon in attempting to create it.

Re: The Great A.I. Awakening

#135
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why I doubt if efforts like OpenAI will ultimately turn out to be beneficial or catastrophic. I understand their purpose of democratizing the power and benefits of AI technology broadly. However, if their platform can provide a critical component or developmental path to AGI in the future, the unrestrained distribution of the technology is similar to spreading the blueprint of nuclear warheads. It could resul…

Repeat after me, "AI is not Magic." A super intelligent AI does not change the laws of physics or even get to predict the weather two weeks from now. Sure, they could learn to be a good hacker but the worlds best hacker can't get into air gaped systems. More importantly, flawless security trumps hacking. If there is nothing to exploit there is no way in, which means a lone AI is much more powerful than lot's of AI's…

> More importantly, flawless security trumps hacking. If there is nothing to exploit there is no way in, which means a lone AI is much more powerful than lot's of AI's with different goals.

No security is flawless in the face of a sufficiently determined attacker. No system has nothing to exploit.

Re: The Great A.I. Awakening

#136
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We already have 7 billion of these H(uman)GI's walking around the world, with guns and dangerous tech. If the AGI will be much smarter, we shouldn't fear it the same we fear a dictator with nukes.

"Smarter" has no nessisary or consequent intersection with "Shares human values" or even "Values human existence" https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Paperclip_maximizer One of the reasons AGI will be so dangerous is the near certainty it will have utterly alien values and intentions. It seems exceedingly unlikely that we will be able to program in what consitutes "human values". We can't even begin to remotely agree and…

> pretty much every story he wrote was about how the laws could be subverted via "loopholing" of sufficently intelligent AI.

The most chilling of these is the "Robot Dreams" short story.

Re: The Great A.I. Awakening

#137
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>when people we convinced that machines could bootstrap themselves into contraptions that could move mountains. With our modern construction equipment, we do move mountains .

>> With our modern construction equipment, we do move mountains. We do- using machines; not machines themselves.

Eh, depends what you mean by that exactly.

Many of these machines can be programmed to follow a primary human driven machine and replicate the task. Other machines are piloted by a human, but the human does far less work someone that used 'manual hydraulic' equipment of many generations ago. You can 'program' a few sets of moves in them and then only slightly adjust the equipment on each pass as the equipment does that work.

Re: The Great A.I. Awakening

#138
post #25
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're an iteration of an AGI system that has been improving itself for hundreds of millions of years. The rate at which biological AGIs improve over time is very slow, but it's not like nature has any good reason to be in a hurry. But interesting things happen when you network billions of biological AGIs together, it leads to all sorts of emergent phenomenon, and now the biological AGIs are working on these newfangl…

That gives me some really strong existential heebie jeebies. I mean, what then even is our value? Why exist at all, at that point? I don't know about other people, but I get my sense of purpose in believing that we're the captains of this Spaceship Earth, and that we're making progress towards something significant. I don't know what that something is, but I have a vague idea, and at the very least we seem to be the…

> what then even is our value? Why exist at all, at that point?

Well, what's the value of a chimpanzee (or their cousins the Bonobos)?

It surely can't just be their value to us, or we're left with the same problem (it's turtles all the way down).

The answer seems like it ought to be that any intrinsic value of a species (or genus, family, order, class, phylum, kingdom, domain, clade) lies in its generativity, or propensity to produce ever more complex and adaptive patterns of information over time.

> I don't know about other people, but I get my sense of purpose in believing that we're the captains of this Spaceship Earth, and that we're making progress towards something significant.

Hmm. There are two separate thoughts here. Let's take "progress towards something significant" first. Much (but not all) of what we see as "progress" is illusory. For example, a human is not "more evolved" than a slime mold, since both have just as much evolutionary history behind them. Similarly, whether a human actually is better adapted (or more adaptable), evolutionarily speaking is up for debate, as the time period we have data on is rather limited, and as a species humans still may kill themselves off (which slime molds are unlikely to do) sometime soon.

Now, all that being said, it is pretty clear that the human species has become a substrate for memetic evolution layered on top of, and in many cases hijacking, the feedback loops that genetic evolution has produced.

We don't yet have significant data on whether that adaptation is, in the long run, survival-oriented.

And now we can see the glimmers of yet another new type of replicator that will be layered on top of our culture, especially the parts we call science, technology, industry, etc.

We certainly can expect these new information patterns to hijack the evolution of our technology (and other parts of our culture) to some extent, as well as the layers below it.

Whether that obliterates the cultural, or even genetic, substrate from which it sprang is an open question.

If all this gives you existential heebie jeebies, I imagine that similar feelings were experienced by folks confronted with the evidence of heliocentrism, for example, demoting the Earth from it's privileged position as the center of the universe.

So, on to significance. We have no reason to think that we and our works are in fact at all special, at least in principle, except in the sense that we don't yet have any evidence of any other clades, much less ones that have budded off the equivalent of an intelligent, technological species.

So what? There is no reason that we should require the illusion of individual or collective significance in the greater scheme of things in order to function. There actually is no "greater scheme of things".

You ask, "what is our value?" the answer is that we have none (or none more than one of your cells has to you), except that which we create for ourselves and for our conspecifics. If the self-centered viewpoint isn't enough, consider a strictly utilitarian one: An adaptive pattern is of value simply because it does adapt, and co-opts more of the world into its own image (This is, in a sense, nothing more than the Anthropic Principle rejiggered). Those that have a symbiotic relationship with their underlying substrate (as opposed to parasitizing it) and also promote its long term survival are especially so.

Re: The Great A.I. Awakening

#139
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That gives me some really strong existential heebie jeebies. I mean, what then even is our value? Why exist at all, at that point? I don't know about other people, but I get my sense of purpose in believing that we're the captains of this Spaceship Earth, and that we're making progress towards something significant. I don't know what that something is, but I have a vague idea, and at the very least we seem to be the…

We don't really have any "value". There's no "higher" reason why we exist. And the idea of us being "captains of this Spaceship Earth" is laughable when you look at the fact that we've wiped out an incredible amount of species. We basically left a trail of death wherever we migrated. http://www.salon.com/2015/08/14/the_megafauna_massacre_human... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_megafauna Add in the damage do…

> the idea of us being "captains of this Spaceship Earth" is laughable when you look at the fact that we've wiped out an incredible amount of species.

Well, no one said we were good captains...

In fact, Captain Joseph Hazelwood comes to mind.

Re: The Great A.I. Awakening

#140
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're an iteration of an AGI system that has been improving itself for hundreds of millions of years. The rate at which biological AGIs improve over time is very slow, but it's not like nature has any good reason to be in a hurry. But interesting things happen when you network billions of biological AGIs together, it leads to all sorts of emergent phenomenon, and now the biological AGIs are working on these newfangl…

>> these newfangled mechanical AGIs, which, while still crude, aren't bound by the same constraints, they can iterate much faster. When has an AI shown capability of "iterating" in this way? We've had all sorts of different AI systems for quite a long time now, and I've never heard of a machine anywhere that has actually made itself smarter, without any human involvement. The closest to that sort of thing anyone's ev…

> When has an AI shown capability of "iterating" in this way?

Many times, actually. It's just that until quite recently, this approach (of applying ML to the problem of devising improved ML systems) has been prohibitively expensive in terms of time and resources compared to the human-powered ML research approach. The lowest-level version of this is hyperparameter optimization, but higher-order versions are known to have been deployed already.

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