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My Priorities for the Next Four Years

schneier.com

121–130 of 157 posts

Re: My Priorities for the Next Four Years

#121
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment makes zero sense.

He no longer likes Bruce Schneider because Bruce doesn't like Donald Trump.

Because Bruce didn't expect Trump.

I mean, I think the expectation is bogus. But at least state it correctly.

Re: My Priorities for the Next Four Years

#122
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure why you are getting so many down votes, it's a legitimate point. We tend to forget that it was Obama who was in his second term when the Snowden revelations hit the papers. It was Obama who approved the drone strikes on US citizens. It was Obama who was in charge during Manning's court martial, conviction and sentencing. I appreciate the complexities of each decision, but it shows he understood and accep…

>If it were Exxon-Mobile doing the same thing, you would have pause, even if they were saying the right things. The CEO of Exxon-Mobil is going to be Secretary of State.

Yes, I'm aware of that, but being Secretary of State and putting candidates in elections every year while only allowing 1 other real competitor (the other party) to compete are completely different levels. Imagine if there was the Republican party and the Exxon-Mobile party.

Re: My Priorities for the Next Four Years

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trump probably will win the next election because he knows how to attract populace. Trump only won because fewer Liberals voted. I don't think that will happen 4 years from now.

Fewer liberals voted because a lot of people couldn't stomach Hillary, and a lot of people were apathetic toward her. She didn't excite many people. If the Democrats run someone less entitled, less establishment, less robotic (for want of a better word), then that should help. On the other hand, Trump needs to deliver, or have a mighty good reason why not. Talking big won't be enough next time. If he hasn't actually…

> That won't be enough to get Trump another four years if he doesn't deliver during the first four.

Not to be confronting but Obama got elected twice. Did he delivered the first time?

Re: My Priorities for the Next Four Years

#124

> we have a defeated majority I take this to mean HRC supporters. It's also important to realize and recognize the pains being endured by the "minority" (I hate that word when it comes to binary politics and the "minority" is only 1-2% smaller than the "majority") that caused them to support Trump in the first place. Failing to do so, or treating them as idiots, is only going to exacerbate the problem. Bruce Schneier…

First, I don't think that Schneier is ignoring the pains/problems of the minority. He said, "That alternative narrative [a Clinton win] would stress business as usual, and continue to obscure the deep social problems in our society. Those problems won't go away on their own, and in this alternative future they would continue to fester under the surface, getting steadily worse." I don't think he was referring only to racism, sexism, and/or anti-liberal sentiment. I think (but cannot prove) that he was referring to real problems (many of them economic in origin) that have devastated large swathes of the country.

Second: Complaining about Hillary winning the popular vote is like complaining that a football team lost even though they had the most yards of offense. The rules say that's not how the game is scored. Saying that the rules should have given victory to the other team is after-the-fact sour grapes.

Re: My Priorities for the Next Four Years

#125
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very hard to be the only person promising to revolt, but it gets easier the more people that do it. What's the threshold percentage of Google or Facebook's workforce that would need to commit themselves before it would not only be safe to join them, but their demands would need to be reckoned with by management? I don't know (I'm really asking) but my gut says it's nowhere close to 51%.

"It's very hard to be the only person promising to revolt, but it gets easier the more people that do it." Been there, done that. Several times. It's why I don't do it anymore. That threshold is higher than many people think. What happens most is insider attack where a person unsure will sell the people out to administration or management. Revolt gets squashed with that person maybe getting some compensation for it.…

What other similar things have you tried to organize? How many people got involved? What were the outcomes?

Re: My Priorities for the Next Four Years

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fewer liberals voted because a lot of people couldn't stomach Hillary, and a lot of people were apathetic toward her. She didn't excite many people. If the Democrats run someone less entitled, less establishment, less robotic (for want of a better word), then that should help. On the other hand, Trump needs to deliver, or have a mighty good reason why not. Talking big won't be enough next time. If he hasn't actually…

> That won't be enough to get Trump another four years if he doesn't deliver during the first four. Not to be confronting but Obama got elected twice. Did he delivered the first time?

Obama probably shouldn't have been elected twice... but the Republicans ran Romney. He was nearly as hard to get excited about as Hillary. Obama, on the other hand, was very good at inspiring people.

Did he deliver? Well, the economy didn't crater into a Great Depression, so kind of yes. But he left us with a not-really-recovered economy in 2012, so kind of no.

Look, I may be under-rating Trump's ability to genuinely inspire trust. He may be able to bamboozle enough people into buying more empty promises and lack of substance in 2020. I just don't think the "true believers" were enough of his voters this time for him to be able to pull it off.

[Edit: If, by some stroke of insanity, the Democrats run Hillary again in 2020, Trump may well win.]

Re: My Priorities for the Next Four Years

#127

I was watching the 'Dunkirk' trailer the other day and a line stuck out to me: An older fishing boat captain is talking to a younger and soggy rescued solider and says: "There's no hiding from this, boy", referring to the coming of WW2 in general and the captain having to turn to boat back into the melee to search for more survivors. I think that line is also what Bruce is trying to say to a lot of the EFF supporters…

Edit: Here is the link (time-stamped to 1:10): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-eMt3SrfFUhttps://www.youtub...

Re: My Priorities for the Next Four Years

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It's very hard to be the only person promising to revolt, but it gets easier the more people that do it." Been there, done that. Several times. It's why I don't do it anymore. That threshold is higher than many people think. What happens most is insider attack where a person unsure will sell the people out to administration or management. Revolt gets squashed with that person maybe getting some compensation for it.…

What other similar things have you tried to organize? How many people got involved? What were the outcomes?

I have to keep the details private. All involved under 30 people who had some fight in them and motivation to resist in direction I pushed.

First one all but me backed out on key moment with one selling me out. Others had similar pattern with lots of support in those that talk, too few actually acting, some ratting, and it fizzling out as actors get scared or removed from a situation with too many talkers. All went that way. Im actually doing another right now but directly and in open since I anticipate others will bitch out.

In any case, the pattern I describe seems very similar to large-scale activism work or just how people in this country talk vs respond on big issues. It's either human nature itself or a weakness of American culture.

Re: My Priorities for the Next Four Years

#129
post #62
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose however it is hard to revolt against the hand that feeds you more than 2x market rate. "Everyone has their price" sort of thing ..

It's very hard to be the only person promising to revolt, but it gets easier the more people that do it. What's the threshold percentage of Google or Facebook's workforce that would need to commit themselves before it would not only be safe to join them, but their demands would need to be reckoned with by management? I don't know (I'm really asking) but my gut says it's nowhere close to 51%.

Furthermore, I think that a relatively small number of us signing the pledge can have outsized impact when you take the political climate in the Bay Area (and California/the West Coast generally) into account. It's not like we're a small political minority wanting to defy Trump. Quite the opposite: the pledge serves as a way of reminding the people in charge that those of us opposed to Trump's policies in the areas that these companies depend on vastly outnumber the likes of Thiel.

In fact, you don't even have to look at just the Bay Area. Americans don't want a Muslim registry. They don't want mass deportations. Even Trump voters don't want mass deportations [1]. Tech companies need to remember that if they facilitate mass deportations, they are working against the will of the American people.

[1]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/09/trump...

Re: My Priorities for the Next Four Years

#130
post #67
post #8

Interesting read, but I can't imagine how anyone could convince Google and Facebook to change their business models at this stage unless the market truly revolted and started moving away from their products due to privacy issues. I think change is much more likely to happen through disruption (which perhaps is the other side of his ideas, coming up with business models that are more privacy-friendly). I think securit…

IMO there are only two companies in the world right now that could possibly compete against Google and Facebook on that kind of scale but with a different, more privacy-respecting business model. Unfortunately, the one in Cupertino only takes a lukewarm stance on privacy despite being in an excellent position to make it a distinguishing feature of their platform; and the one in Redmond with its always-calling-home op…

Unfortunately, the one in Cupertino only takes a lukewarm stance on privacy despite being in an excellent position to make it a distinguishing feature of their platform;

(EDIT: read your reply further down; okay, we're not as far apart as I thought; in fact, I think you're spot on. I'll leave this here anyway.) Wow, do we have differing points of view. The way I look at Apple these days is that privacy is the distinguishing feature of their platform. What other device maker is visibly working to ensure that even they themselves cannot access the data on your device?

Now, any contrarian argument is sure to point out the holes, but IMO it's the best we've got at the moment, and Apple appears to me to give a message of "we don't care about your data, we're content to collect money from you by selling you shiny trinkets".

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