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Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

techcrunch.com

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Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#181

Post by ChuckMcM »

CM30 wrote: post #102

I don't think this is all that surprising to be honest. Google is (by and large) a software development and services company, not a car manufacturer. If they make their own autonomous vehicles, that means they then have to handle everything from safety testing to customer support and sales in addition to the self driving car technology itself. By working with existing car manufacturers, they can focus on their part o…

I agree this move isn't surprising, but disagree with the assertion that Google is a software development and services company.

Google is first and foremost an Internet Search Advertising company, so far it has been the thing keeping the lights on. I expect that if it had felt it could make the transition into self driving car company it would have. But it helps to remember a little bit of history here.

Google was, for the most part, the very first company of significant size to invest in self driving cars. They did that at the behest of Sebastian Thrun who was working there. It made some big headlines and it certainly added to Google's "glow" as a place where the future was happening. And then it ran into the sludge that is Google's inability to actually make "products" that aren't a web page. And as it did people started slipping away, first Sebastian, then Chris, then a big exit to what was Otto, Etc.

While Google was sitting in that quagmire of their inability to execute on a product vision, Tesla came in, announced auto pilot, deployed autopilot, updated it to do many of the things Google could actually do, announced self drive, deployed the hardware for self drive. Basically all executing on a product strategy while Google argued internally about whether or not their "car" should have a steering wheel or not.

What I've read in the news so far it sounds like Google is spinning off what is left of that group as Waymo (that seems like it is a sort of PIP for groups at Google) and trying to sell it off to someone.

I left in 2010 and the self driving car group was about a year old (and I tried to join it but they turned me down :-() Here it is 2016 so 7 years of development. A number of actual vehicles were produced, a number of cars were modified, I'm guessing there were about 150 people in the group at its peak. Just doing back of the envelope conversations for that group I'm guessing Google invested at least $300M in the effort. And now its scrap.

I appreciate that it is a really hard problem, and I appreciate that it was pretty far off Google's expertise spectrum. I also appreciate that they take "big bets" even when they fail. But given where Tesla is, and where they are, I worry that even if one of their big bets is a "winner", Google won't be able to execute on it. Just like Xerox couldn't execute on the personal computer and GM on electric cars. Once you get to be too big to win, what do you do?

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#182

Post by dragonwriter »

jandrese wrote: post #149
CM30 wrote: post #102

I don't think this is all that surprising to be honest. Google is (by and large) a software development and services company, not a car manufacturer. If they make their own autonomous vehicles, that means they then have to handle everything from safety testing to customer support and sales in addition to the self driving car technology itself. By working with existing car manufacturers, they can focus on their part o…

I suspect Google got cold feet when they started considering the liability issues once this goes mainstream. Even their millions of miles road tests were done at low speeds near their campus.

I suspect Google never planned to be a car seller, they had their own vehicle because they wanted less baggage and friction while de veloping/proving the technology. Google will occasionally make concrete products where they see it beneficial to their software-baaed service focus, but they really don't seem to want to be in that kind of business except peripherally.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#184

Post by jklinger410 »

deskamess wrote: post #89
throwaway40483 wrote: post #11

I'm wondering what this pivot will do the morale in the Chauffeur team. There has been so much turbulence in the team with several key members leaving to form their own company because they were so frustrated with the pace. I can't imagine partnering with a traditional automaker will increase the pace.

I think this is the Android playbook. Partner with phone/car manufacturers and let them do what they do. You got to worry about customizations/fragmentation but I am not sure if that is going to be an issue for a 'behind the scenes' technology. You got to somehow tie this into Android Auto (license this?) for an integrated environment and integrations with phones or onboard maps (to get the search dollars).

And they will always suffer from fragmentation issues while Apple suffers from a super-high profit margin.

So we're going to have cars identical to our phones and seemingly all of the same problems that come along with that system.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#186

Post by ch4s3 »

ajmurmann wrote: post #153
ch4s3 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes stop lights are there so that people can walk across the street.

That's why I said "traffic lights to regulate traffic between cars"

Sorry I'm being a bit glib. What I'm poking at here is what I feel to be undue optimism about self driving vehicles. It almost appears as if people are describing the Beetle from Fahrenheit 451, with no irony intended.

What I'm getting at is that there seems to be a lack of critical thinking about the potential negatives of self driving cars. We know for example that transit by car is extremely price elastic, and it is easy to infer that a self driving car imposes a very low cost on drivers, so we should expect trips by car to increase if cars are self driving. Is this good or bad? Its hard to say. But we do know that more car trips increase demand for roads. Is this good or bad? If all self driving cars are going to and from similar locations, eg exurbs to job centers, will congestion decrease? If one no longer suffers the penalty of having to drive in congestion, will more people voluntarily sit in traffic, thereby saturating infrastructure?

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#187

Post by novigodd »

greglindahl wrote: post #178
novigodd wrote: post #169

Does anyone seriously believe that seld-driving cars are only a few years away? So far I have only seen them working in nicely controlled environments (American suburbs or highways, nice weather, clear road markings, etc). And even then they drive slowly and awkwardly. How will they handle the narrow roads in British towns, the unwritten right-of-way rules on Swiss mountain roads, the scooter avalanches of Vietnamese…

Silicon Valley has plenty of fog, narrow and winding mountain roads, darkness, bad road markings, etc.

Trust me they are nothing compared to the poor road conditions, lunatic drivers or dangerous weather you'll find in the rest of the world or even the USA.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#189

Post by coffeevradar »

posterboy wrote: post #150
0x6c6f6c wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you mean, most people absolutely do prefer no delays and a private ride, since the other ~80% of Uber riders don't do the POOL option. The market exists for both though. It's a smart move to offer this option. It's more energy economical and fiscally responsible. There's certainly even people who have the time but not the money.

a shared ride has to have at least two occupants. With 4 passengers on average, 20% shared rides would mean 50% of user.

The Uber Pool service doesn't require you to actually be matched. If there doesn't happen to be another rider going in the same direction, you still get the cheaper fare and it's counted as an Uber Pool ride.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#190

Post by woodpanel »

greglindahl wrote: post #165
jandrese wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect Google got cold feet when they started considering the liability issues once this goes mainstream. Even their millions of miles road tests were done at low speeds near their campus.

A lot of Google's testing was done on US 101 and other interstates at highway speeds, insomuch as there wasn't a traffic jam at the time.

Highspeed testing is important. Also the complexity of the traffic is. Some say that the high speed of the German Autobahn is what made German premium cars so technically advanced. As soon as you get faster than 130-150 km/h most cars will let you know they weren't built for this. BMW, Daimler or Audi make 230 km/h ++ feel safe and sound (which I often think they shouldn't). A Tesla for example can't perform autonomous driving here as easily because the variances in speed require sensors that detect cars in further distance, quicker and in more detail.
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