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Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

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Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#171
post #135
post #102

I don't think this is all that surprising to be honest. Google is (by and large) a software development and services company, not a car manufacturer. If they make their own autonomous vehicles, that means they then have to handle everything from safety testing to customer support and sales in addition to the self driving car technology itself. By working with existing car manufacturers, they can focus on their part o…

I have the same response to people who claim Tesla will take over ridehsaring once they have a self-driving car (as opposed to just selling to existing ones that have already built a customer base and worked out the domain specific problems).

That is Tesla's stated intent, so it isn't much of a leap to think they'll try to do that.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#172
post #136
post #102

I don't think this is all that surprising to be honest. Google is (by and large) a software development and services company, not a car manufacturer. If they make their own autonomous vehicles, that means they then have to handle everything from safety testing to customer support and sales in addition to the self driving car technology itself. By working with existing car manufacturers, they can focus on their part o…

Working on self-driving cars, much like working on advanced robots, requires tight integration between the software, sensors, and motors. These aspects cannot really be developed independently, especially if you want to end up with an optimized system that could be a product. Safety is a part of this, too. Google has ~10 years of experience in self-driving cars. They also have acquired many robotics companies. Surely…

> Google has ~10 years of experience in self-driving cars. They also have acquired many robotics companies. Surely, they know this.

Really I think Google loses steam very easily when key people leave the team. I don't believe they have the mgmt infrastructure to keep the ball rolling when people get bored, run into hurdles, etc....

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#173
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just like GM prefers to run taxi services rather than just focus on making cars and selling them to th highest bidders (including taxi companies)?

Uber profit margin: 0. GM/Ford Profit Margin: 9-12% Tesla Profit Margin: 22.8% Go where the margin is.

Which, by those very figures, would be in selling cars to ridesharing services, not competing with them.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#174
post #160
post #102

I don't think this is all that surprising to be honest. Google is (by and large) a software development and services company, not a car manufacturer. If they make their own autonomous vehicles, that means they then have to handle everything from safety testing to customer support and sales in addition to the self driving car technology itself. By working with existing car manufacturers, they can focus on their part o…

The problem is few car companies want to partner with Google because Google asks to collect too much data from all of their customers - not that I blame the car makers.

Do you work in the car industry? This seems like a very inside thing to both know and casually drop on Hacker News.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#175
Makes sense.

I don't think Google ever (OK, in the past couple of years) really intended for self-driving cars to happen, or expected self-driving cars to happen (within a few decades).

What it was (and what Project X seems to be these days), was a great way to attract talent.

"Wanna work in a company which makes self driving cars, internet balloons, 20% time, and robots" sounds way cooler than "Wanna work in Doubleclick v.2"

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#176
post #102

I don't think this is all that surprising to be honest. Google is (by and large) a software development and services company, not a car manufacturer. If they make their own autonomous vehicles, that means they then have to handle everything from safety testing to customer support and sales in addition to the self driving car technology itself. By working with existing car manufacturers, they can focus on their part o…

Just like the did with smartphones. Maybe that's why most Android phones aren't that good.

> Maybe that's why most Android phones aren't that good.

I'm assuming you're talking about the phones themselves and not Android as an OS, but your statement is pretty sketchy. I'm no expert, but most Android phones that I'm aware of in the same price range as the iPhone are up-to-par or have superior hardware. Many carriers sell cheap Android phones as well, that are "not as good" because iPhones are expensive. So yeah, 90% of Android phones may be "not as good" as an iPhone, but Apple isn't selling new devices to the under-$500 market, and of course the cheaper phones aren't as good.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#177
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, perhaps, but the counter to this is that they could "benefit from the closed system of vertical integration" that seems to be all the rage these days. I could envision a scenario where they partner with existing manufacturers for a couple years, then "courageously" break off and produce their own vehicle in order to "control the process".

That would be one hell of an ecosystem to bootstrap, even starting with a partnership with an existing company, even for Google. Building "a" car isn't that hard. Building a car that conforms with all regulations, has had all the testing done on it, can be manufactured at any useful scale, and, oh, also is something that people want to buy, is not a problem that should be underestimated. (Yes, props to Tesla. They di…

> Building "a" car isn't that hard.

Tesla deserves plenty of accolades just for getting to the point where they are producing multiple models of vehicle that conform to or exceed modern standards of quality .

However, Tthey have only managed to build "a" luxury sedan, "a" crossover SUV, and will soon be building "a" budget-luxury sedan. The real challenge is in attaining and sustaining the pace of development maintained by the rest of the industry. The automotive industry at large keeps a rolling cycle of refreshes and replacements on a roughly 3/6 year timetable (refreshed after 3 years, replaced after 6). Some niche models (Jeep Wrangler, Mazda Miata) stay in production far longer than that average but a 3/6 cycle is also a bit too long in ultra-competitive categories such as the compact crossover segment.

This is where I see Tesla beginning to struggle as their entirely bootstrapped operation has struggled to meet deadlines. That is cause for concern as it places their current lineup at a competitive disadvantage as their competition has gone through at least 1 refresh, if not a full replacement, since the design of their most recent model (Model X) was set in stone.

The Model S design was largely set in stone by 2009, 2010 at the latest and the Model X design was mostly locked in by 2012, 2013 at the latest. It took 3 years for both of those designs to actually reach showroom floors (2012 and 2016 respectively) so while the clock hasn't run out in terms of production life, the designs themselves are beginning to become dates. I don't just mean "design" as in styling, I mean it as the all-encompassing architecture of the vehicles.

While Tesla's offerings have several unique attributes which cannot be found in any of their closest competitors, one can only push an old design for so long before it becomes completely unappealing to consumers, even when sold at break even prices. I dare say that such a scenario may be playing out with the Model S as its sales had slumped leading up to the 2016 refresh that boosted sales, yet the bump still fell short of that model's best sales quarter which occurred back in 2015. The fact is that the Model S was designed to achieve the minimum level of refinement expected of a 2010-era, $65,000 luxury sedan with the silent, powerful electric powertrain being the plan to make up for its shortcomings in the areas of ride quality and interior fit and finish. Now that ~7 years have passed, the high end, mid-size sedan offerings from mass market brands have caught up to the Model S in many areas.

The Model S may smoke a Nissan Maxima in straight line and the Maxima can't hold a candle to the silence of the Tesla's powertrain but it also costs ~$35,000. In my opinion, it also has a better finished interior and more up-to-date styling than the Model S. We can argue all day over these points but you have to admit that manufacturers like Nissan are at least getting within striking distance in certain areas with cars costing half the price. Tesla needs to seriously step up their development game lest they be left behind with woefully dates products that simply cannot be discounted enough to remain appealing.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#178

Does anyone seriously believe that seld-driving cars are only a few years away? So far I have only seen them working in nicely controlled environments (American suburbs or highways, nice weather, clear road markings, etc). And even then they drive slowly and awkwardly. How will they handle the narrow roads in British towns, the unwritten right-of-way rules on Swiss mountain roads, the scooter avalanches of Vietnamese…

Silicon Valley has plenty of fog, narrow and winding mountain roads, darkness, bad road markings, etc.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#179
post #160
post #102

I don't think this is all that surprising to be honest. Google is (by and large) a software development and services company, not a car manufacturer. If they make their own autonomous vehicles, that means they then have to handle everything from safety testing to customer support and sales in addition to the self driving car technology itself. By working with existing car manufacturers, they can focus on their part o…

The problem is few car companies want to partner with Google because Google asks to collect too much data from all of their customers - not that I blame the car makers.

car companies don't particularly seem to mind data collection if you look at newer "connected" features.

Re: Google has reportedly stopped developing its own self-driving car

#180

Makes sense. I don't think Google ever (OK, in the past couple of years) really intended for self-driving cars to happen, or expected self-driving cars to happen (within a few decades). What it was (and what Project X seems to be these days), was a great way to attract talent. "Wanna work in a company which makes self driving cars, internet balloons, 20% time, and robots" sounds way cooler than "Wanna work in Doublec…

>I don't think Google ever (OK, in the past couple of years) really intended for self-driving cars to happen, or expected self-driving cars to happen (within a few decades).

Self-driving cars will roll-out to select markets within the next couple of years.

Google just doesn't want to manufacture the vehicles.

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