"Collapse" a pretty good documentary on the subject
Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
51–60 of 72 posts
Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
Which has the higher bound -- the amount of oil we can pump out of the ground in a given day, or the demand for that oil given that we have 1 billion new members of the middle class over the last 25 years alone? What about the next billion?
Wrong question - 25 from years from now, our aggregate energy needs will certainly have increased, but we will have had ample time to adjust for the decline in oil reserves by substitution and per-capita demand reduction, which is relatively elastic over longer terms. If we wanted - and anyone who questions the existence of political will is right to be worried - we could replace our oil fuel use almost entirely over…
The political will issue is a tough one, since 45% of the electorate is adamantly opposed to any attempt by government to alter the incentives in play on principle. That means we need perfection from the remaining 55%. I'm not holding my breath.
Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
What are the inputs into this manufacturing process? The $100/bbl figure is meaningless, unless we know what the specific inputs are and how stable their prices and availability are. Energy of some sort is obviously a major input, and it's unlikely that oil will spike without having a similar effect on the overall energy market. So the fact that oil could be manufactured from coal at $100/barrel now doesn't mean that…
"Energy of some sort is obviously a major input,..." Unless, of course, the chemical process that converts coal to oil is exothermic, which is not impossible in principle. In this case, the energy conversion efficiency would be less than one, but it still might cost less than changing the oil-based infrastructure so that it consumes coal directly.
Whatever happened to that "thermal depolymerization" process, where scrap turkey guts, etc., were being turned into oil and other stuff?
Several years ago I think I read that a pilot plant was being built that was (IIRC) technically successful but ran into problems with smelly emissions.
Anybody know what has come of that?
UPDATE: partial answer to my own question from Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization#Status...
"...He says the first generation of depolymerization centers will be up and running in 2005. By then it should be clear whether the technology is as miraculous as its backers claim." However, as of August 2008, the only operational plant listed at the company's website is the initial one in Carthage, Missouri. Changing World Technology applied for an IPO on 12 Aug 2008, hoping to raise $100 million. The unusual Dutch Auction type IPO failed possibly because CWT has lost nearly $20 million with very little revenue. CWT, the parent company of Renewable Energy Solutions, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. No details on plans for the Carthage plant have been released.
...which doesn't tell us as much about the technical aspects as it does the business. It may all be tied up in the break-even point for the process, and the amount of government subsidies they've found.
Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
#54“The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” Sheikh Yamani, Saudi Oil Minister, 1962-1986
Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
#55Executive summary: The author expects "government intervention of some kind to occur before prices get much above $200/bbl."
government intervention is of course a euphemism for rationing. Rationing creates shortages which in turn causes steeper rationing, with the result being the economy slows to whatever pace is consistent with the limited supply of energy. For the USA that looks to be a lonnnng way down from here.
A combination of subsidies and taxes could align incentives well in advance without resorting to outright rationing.
Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
People investing in futures do this every day, and some of them are most certainly credible. Southwest Airlines, e.g., seems to be pretty good at saving a buck with aviation gas futures (though that is a step removed from crude oil).
People investing in futures do this every day, and some of them are most certainly credible. If it were possible to do significantly better than blind luck in speculation about future prices then there'd be nobody around to take the other side of the contract.
Speculators usually earn a premium over what they would get via blind luck. If they didn't, there would be no speculators.
The reason why trades occur at all is that not everyone is a pure trader. Hedgers (e.g. Southwest) trade futures to reduce business risk rather than to make money. They tend to make a net loss on trading but earn back a greater amount of money via their core business.
Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
#57“The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” Sheikh Yamani, Saudi Oil Minister, 1962-1986
That's poetic - but is it true?
Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
#58> Societal complexity is a function of excess energy availability That's true in it's most trivial sense, and false in any non-trivial sense. Quick examples - Qatar, Venezuela, Japan.
Your Qatar and Japan examples, at least, make his point: the complexity of those cultures reflect the resource conditions in which they developed. Not sure about Venezuela. Japan, in particular, was the only place in the world where hunting and fishing could support large settled populations, if I remember my Jared Diamond correctly.
Japan, in particular, was the only place in the world where hunting and fishing could support large settled populations
Louisiana was more productive than Japan for wild fish and fowl. (Largely destroyed now by bad planning, pollution, and man-made environmental disasters)
Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
#59“The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” Sheikh Yamani, Saudi Oil Minister, 1962-1986
That's poetic - but is it true?
Definately. We've had commercial electric cars since 1897 and commercial nuclear power plants since 1956.
Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can manufacture oil for around 100$ a barrel from coal. So the chances for inflation adjusted oil above 200$ / barrel lasting for more than a few months within 50 years is tiny. The best way for current suppliers to maximize profit is to occasionally spike prices, and then drop them before alternatives start to diminish demand.
What are the inputs into this manufacturing process? The $100/bbl figure is meaningless, unless we know what the specific inputs are and how stable their prices and availability are. Energy of some sort is obviously a major input, and it's unlikely that oil will spike without having a similar effect on the overall energy market. So the fact that oil could be manufactured from coal at $100/barrel now doesn't mean that…
The input is energy, and it costs $100/bbl to do it, and the energy comes from coal. All the catalysts etc needed are reused, so availability is not a serious problem.
Of course as the price of oil goes up, the price of coal goes up too, so the dollar amount goes up as well. But if you need oil specifically because it's liquid, then oil's price will go up more than coal, and eventually it will become worth it to use coal. We came close last year - they even started test projects in Pennsylvania.
And we have a LOT of coal. Centuries worth. And liquefaction is not even a serious environmental hazard (like burning coal is) because all the heavy metals are refined out.