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Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil

chrismartenson.com

11–20 of 72 posts

Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil

#11
post #7

Why is bbl the abbreviation for "barrel"? Ahh, wikipedia knows: The "b" may have been doubled originally to indicate the plural (1 bl, 2 bbl), or possibly it was doubled to eliminate any confusion with bl as a symbol for the bale. Some sources claim that "bbl" originated as a symbol for "blue barrels" delivered by Standard Oil in its early days; this is probably incorrect because there are citations for the symbol at…

I thought it was just for nicer symmetry with hogshead (hhd).

Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil

#12
post #7

Why is bbl the abbreviation for "barrel"? Ahh, wikipedia knows: The "b" may have been doubled originally to indicate the plural (1 bl, 2 bbl), or possibly it was doubled to eliminate any confusion with bl as a symbol for the bale. Some sources claim that "bbl" originated as a symbol for "blue barrels" delivered by Standard Oil in its early days; this is probably incorrect because there are citations for the symbol at…

http://seekingalpha.com/article/18636-where-does-that-2nd-b-...

Quote:

In the early 1860's, when oil production began, there was no standard container for oil, so oil and petroleum products were stored and transported in barrels of all different shapes and sizes (beer barrels, fish barrels, molasses barrels, turpentine barrels, etc.). By the early 1870's, the 42-gallon barrel had been adopted as the standard for oil trade. This was 2 gallons per barrel more than the 40-gallon standard used by many other industries at the time. The extra 2 gallons was to allow for evaporation and leaking during tranport (most barrels were made of wood). Standard Oil began manufacturing 42 gallon barrels that were blue to be used for transporting petroleum. The use of a blue barrel, abbreviated "bbl," guaranteed a buyer that this was a 42-gallon barrel.

Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil

#13
post #8

It's more basic even than this. Market demand for oil collapses (read: recession) long before it gets anywhere close to $500/bbl.

> Market demand for oil collapses (read: recession) long before it gets anywhere close to $500/bbl. Above $80 a barrel, alternative fuels (such as liquid fuels from coal) becomes profitable. I sincerely expect that this will expand extremely rapidly in the next 15 years.

When demand becomes tight, the price driver is not so much the cost to produce as it is the rate of production. Can we produce five or ten million barrels of oil-from-coal a day? Can we replace a two or three percent annual drop in oil production rates through some combination of conserving and replacement without recessionary demand destruction? I'm not so sure.

Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil

#14
post #6

I got pretty into peak oil circa 2006, when peak was supposedly already occurring or was going to occur by 2008. It will happen eventually, but I'm not going to get into playing this guessing game again.

No need to guess. Oil production has been flat around 85 million barrels a day for the past four years.

Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil

#15
post #12
post #7

Why is bbl the abbreviation for "barrel"? Ahh, wikipedia knows: The "b" may have been doubled originally to indicate the plural (1 bl, 2 bbl), or possibly it was doubled to eliminate any confusion with bl as a symbol for the bale. Some sources claim that "bbl" originated as a symbol for "blue barrels" delivered by Standard Oil in its early days; this is probably incorrect because there are citations for the symbol at…

http://seekingalpha.com/article/18636-where-does-that-2nd-b-... Quote: In the early 1860's, when oil production began, there was no standard container for oil, so oil and petroleum products were stored and transported in barrels of all different shapes and sizes (beer barrels, fish barrels, molasses barrels, turpentine barrels, etc.). By the early 1870's, the 42-gallon barrel had been adopted as the standard for oil…

That quote doesn't explain why the abbreviation was used about a hundred years before stabndard oil introduced the blue barrel, as claimed by the wikipedia quote in the comment you ansered to. In fact, your quote just reiterates the claim that wikipedia said was probably false, so to make your argument you should instead show that the citations from the late 1700s are wrong.

EDIT: This will be difficult, as it is quite easy to find citations for "bbl oil" from before 1850 using google books, the first I found was on p. 239 of a book called "Railway engines and cars" from 1832. So the blue barrel legend can be firmly laid to rest in peas.

Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil

#16
post #6

I got pretty into peak oil circa 2006, when peak was supposedly already occurring or was going to occur by 2008. It will happen eventually, but I'm not going to get into playing this guessing game again.

No need to guess. Oil production has been flat around 85 million barrels a day for the past four years.

Demand has been lower due to the global recession -- there is no indication that oil production can't go higher than ever before, once demand starts picking back up.

Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil

#18
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No need to guess. Oil production has been flat around 85 million barrels a day for the past four years.

Demand has been lower due to the global recession -- there is no indication that oil production can't go higher than ever before, once demand starts picking back up.

And what do you think triggered the global recession, if not an oil price that spiked to an economy-busting $147/bbl in the two years after production peaked at 85 mbpd?

Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil

#19
Price controls won't change anything. Did prices controls of food in the USSR kept worldwide food prices deflated? No! You see every nation in the world is competing for crude oil. If broken American can't afford it, Asians and Europeans will.

The history shows us that price controls never worked. NEVER.

Re: Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil

#20
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand has been lower due to the global recession -- there is no indication that oil production can't go higher than ever before, once demand starts picking back up.

And what do you think triggered the global recession, if not an oil price that spiked to an economy-busting $147/bbl in the two years after production peaked at 85 mbpd?

Ummmm... I kind of thought it was the combination of a US housing bubble in combination with poor risk management in the financial industry particularly respecting mortgates.
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