Pebble's next step • Hacker News Board

Re: Pebble's next step

#431

Post by tomaskafka » Thu, Dec 08, 2016, 9:36 AM UTC

captainmuon wrote: post #64

I'm quite angry. This sucks so bad. I "ordered" a Time 2 via Kickstarter. I'm glad they are refunding me, but that makes me think... WTF, did they not produce any Time 2's? Or are they all going to the landfill? How long have they been knowing that they are going to be insolvent? This doesn't happen overnight! Was the last Kickstarter a gamble? Why does everybody have to aim for total market dominance to be successfu…

I saw somewhere that the japan company that produced Pebble Time / Time 2 displays is on a verge of bankrupcy - supply problems?

Re: Pebble's next step

#432

Post by dspillett » Thu, Dec 08, 2016, 10:31 AM UTC

hjmcnew wrote: post #314

dspillett wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Statistics are like bikinis: they show a lot but what they can hide is significant too. Fatalities overall have fallen and continue to fall, largely due to increased use of seatbelts, other safety features in cars improving and being more commonly available. Also in many areas the overcrowding of roads is making fatalities drop: if you can't get up to any sort of speed then and collisions you experience will be less…

Perhaps it is the pedant in me, but the parent didn't qualify by saying the number of fatalities due to distracted driving. There was only the blanket statement of an increase in the number of fatalities. While I don't doubt you are correct that the proportion of fatalities due to distracted driving is increasing, I'd still like to see a link or two to the studies you cited.

> I'd still like to see a link or two to the studies you cited.

Unfortunately I don't have such handy, though if I remember when I next have time I'll try hunt out a reference.

If you want clues to try hunt them down yourself: they will be things I've read about in New Scientist (dead tree publication), probably in sidebars to recent articles on advances in automated vehicles.

Re: Pebble's next step

#433

Post by fest » Thu, Dec 08, 2016, 10:31 AM UTC

tonyplee wrote: post #409

fest wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are Chinese companies working on similar products, for example WeLoop[0], Goclever[1]. People are already working on open-source firmware for some of these watches[2], so I think there's a reasonably good chance that either some of these companies will create a decent alternative to pebble, or at least good enough hardware which can be used with community-developed firmware (and even more importantly: apps on t…

One problem for open source HW watch is that a lot of other folks will just use their factories in ShenZhen to clone the HW sell it for cheap without any R&D and marketing. Similar to how OrangePI leverage Raspberry Pi situations. It becomes race to the bottom ($5-10 pi zero) and no one can make $ in the market in both short and long term. There seem to be a lot of sub $20 watch base on following links - not sure how…

Yeah, there are a bunch of crappy "let's see how much we can pack into this for under $20" smartwatches coming from companies in SZ. Most have terrible UI, terrible battery life nad terrible apps on phone side.

However I think that brands focused on quality will emerge. Xiaomi for example don't make the cheapest gadgets but instead focus on quality. If they decide that there is a market for pebble-like smartwatch, I'm certain they would execute well.

Re: Pebble's next step

#434

Post by delecti » Thu, Dec 08, 2016, 12:54 PM UTC

lettergram wrote: post #405

delecti wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming all of the ~200,000 kickstarter backers would have been okay with the $10/year software, and no duplication of backers between their three campaigns, and that yearly payment kicking in as soon as each of the three campaigns ended (so before the customers even got their devices), that would have brought in a bit shy of $5m, compared to the ~$43m they brought in from their three campaigns. It's a good thought,…

You have to remember the overhead for that $5m in revenue would only be a few engineers let's say 5 at $1m, that's $4m profit. Whereas on the $43m they still had to manufacture, ship, hire designers, engineers, etc. That $4m profit would be a LOT more than 10%, that would cover 20 people's salary

I was assuming a flat "free" boost to their total revenue stream, so my assumption was even more generous than yours.

I sincerely doubt they were only 10% of revenue away from being solvent, even if it was money that came out of nowhere. Reports I've heard are that Fitbit paid ~40m to pay off Pebble's debts, meaning that instead of $10/yr the subscription fee would have to have been closer to $10/mo.

Re: Pebble's next step

#435

Post by sundvor » Thu, Dec 08, 2016, 1:44 PM UTC

Well I for one am extremely sad about this. I had the Pebble Steel, stolen, then Pebble Time Steel and now also the Pebble 2, with a Pebble Time 2 on order.

I've loved Pebble from the first day I read about their original kickstarter. Gutted to learn I'll never get my Time 2.. was it a manufacturing defect that sunk the company?

At any rate I just found and placed an order for a white Pebble 2 for my wife. I was going to wait a bit, but didn't want to take any chances on getting her one now. Love the contrast of my lime / grey one.

I can't see anything replacing the Pebble now; nothing else offers week long battery life and always on display.

Thanks to all the engineers and programmers for the work you've put in. I feel sad for how it all panned out.

Re: Pebble's next step

#436

Post by KallDrexx » Thu, Dec 08, 2016, 2:12 PM UTC

this-dang-guy wrote: post #372

KallDrexx wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a Vector watch and really enjoy it, but I was also going for more of a watch with some smart features rather than a full on smart watch.

That is exactly the sort of watch I'm looking at. It's a watch first, a smartwatch second - those notifications look ideal. How does it hold up "out there" in the real world? Is it too focused on the suit/office crowd?

Not totally sure what you mean by "out there", but it holds up just fine for me. People comment that I have a good looking watch and only really notice that it's a smart watch when they try and see why I'm fiddling with buttons to read and dismiss notifications.

My only complaint is they try and be clever and detect when you move your wrist up to look at it, so it auto-shows you notifications. This sucks because it's not totally reliable (so half the time I press the button to bring up notifications and it ends up dismissing them because they are already in view, and other times it triggers due to an incorrect motion). I wish you could turn that off but I haven't found a way yet.

I've had this watch for about 3 months now. The first charge only lasted about 2 weeks but after that I actually got more than 30 days on the 2nd charge and going strong on my 3rd charge now, so the battery life claims definitely are true (though I did uninstall the weather app cause it was useless).

The build quality is good. People say it's a little thick but I guess my arms are big enough that I don't notice. I got the leather band and it's never felt uncomfortable to me.

I would recommend a screen protector (Amazon has some good fitting ones for cheap) but that's probably because it's been a decade since I wore a walk and got a tiny scratch because the first day I wore it I accidentally flailed my arm towards a brick column at work. It scratched the face a tiny bit (not really noticable) but I feel much safer with a screen protector.

Any other specific things you'd like to know I'm happy to answer.

Re: Pebble's next step

#437

Post by brlewis » Thu, Dec 08, 2016, 4:17 PM UTC

bdcravens wrote: post #430

brlewis wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fitbit is not a struggling wearables manufacturer. It is solidly profitable.

Their stock price is down 75% year-over-year, though their watch-ish sales are improving as the Apple Watch declines.

A company does not automatically struggle on account of previously having had a high stock price.

Re: Pebble's next step

#438

Post by htrp » Thu, Dec 08, 2016, 4:24 PM UTC

captainmuon wrote: post #66

ynniv wrote: post #63

I'll trade my refund for a postmortem.

I'd love to know what the ratio of incompetence to malice was.

Hanlon's razor

Re: Pebble's next step

#439

Post by htrp » Thu, Dec 08, 2016, 4:34 PM UTC

CodexArcanum wrote: post #188

I've been generally dissatisfied with the smart watch options in general, even more so than cell phones and the Sophie's choices for cell phones is pretty bad! What factors prevent open source hardware from being viable? Like if the basic parts of the pebble (e-paper screens, small efficient processors, flat batteries, etc) were open hardware so that any number of manufacturers could just churn out the parts; and if…

>and the Sophie's choices for cell phones is pretty bad!

Mind elaborating?

Re: Pebble's next step

#440

Post by Kihashi » Thu, Dec 08, 2016, 4:53 PM UTC

wvenable wrote: post #286

alexholehouse wrote: post #79

One thought: FitBit's customer service with me has been nothing but exceptional from start to finish, and is the reason I have bought several for family members. I would hope that FitBit would recognize the loyalty they create based on this quality of service could be magnified by grandfathering Pebble's various services and by maintaining them, while helping Pebble users to transition at their convenience. This woul…

Fitbit doesn't own any of the services so they can't maintain them even if they wanted to.

> It is because of the close collaboration with the Fitbit team that the Pebble user experience will continue. Fitbit will maintain services so that Pebble devices continue to work as normal. Pebble functionality and service may be reduced in the future.

FTA