Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 73 posts

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#61

Post by serge2k »

solatic wrote: post #43

Specifically about Google's Project X delivery drone project: The first guy to head the project was one Nicholas Roy, an MIT Robotics professor whose professional claim to the position seems to be mentoring a pair of students who succeeded in building a drone that flew around a parking garage - predetermined layout, no weather. Completely out of his depth, he failed. After he failed, Google hired Dave Vos, another gu…

> The aerospace folks aren't going to move to the Valley because there's no aerospace hub in SV, and SV isn't a good place to start one because the necessary land - you know, the wide open spaces you need for runways and hangars - is a pipedream in SV. And the AI folks, you know, the ones the Big Four are paying close to a million dollars in salary and begging not to leave for a competitor - are never going to leave SV to work on delivery drones.

Seattle?

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#62

Post by serge2k »

mc32 wrote: post #14

I still don't get the foray into delivery of physical low value products. The cost of delivery is a sufficient portion of the total value of the products so as to make it economically impractical for most cases. And we have the example of Peapod and WebVan which didn't just foretell but proved unless it was for specialized markets, it's a proposal for hemorrhaging money. Even if you get automation and you perfect the…

People will pay a premium not have to leave their homes, if it takes the same amount of time or faster (or even slower, if it's not that slow).

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#63

Post by mc32 »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #58
mc32 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't that aid my point? Why did they choose to try to prove same day delivery with items which cannot sustain the cost of deliveries (yet) given current technology. Why not prove the concept with higher value items and then move down the chain --as FedEx did. This approach seems a bit backwards to me.

No, I don't think it aids your point. Let's say I can deliver it (for whatever "it" is) $1 cheaper with a drone than with a truck. Let's say I'm delivering a $300 tablet. Nobody cares about the $1. (I mean, yes, some business - either the seller or the delivery business - cares about the $1. But it's not enough to move the needle on customer behavior. If it would, a reasonably smart seller would drop their price $1.)…

There is the interesting success of dabbawallahs who while operating on small margins while delivering perishable and time sensitive goods, do make a profit. So, in some circumstances success can be achieved, if it solves a problem that does not have an easy solution (in this case "home cooked" meals delivered to the workplace, but this has a cultural aspect to it and not sure how well it would translate to other items).

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#64

Post by mc32 »

serge2k wrote: post #62
mc32 wrote: post #14

I still don't get the foray into delivery of physical low value products. The cost of delivery is a sufficient portion of the total value of the products so as to make it economically impractical for most cases. And we have the example of Peapod and WebVan which didn't just foretell but proved unless it was for specialized markets, it's a proposal for hemorrhaging money. Even if you get automation and you perfect the…

People will pay a premium not have to leave their homes, if it takes the same amount of time or faster (or even slower, if it's not that slow).

For sure, pizza delivery while occupied watching a sporting event. It makes sense. For this to make sense for restaurants, for example, they are going to have to achieve the economies of scale Dominoes enjoys --but that's not something most small scale restaurants are going to be able to achieve.

I don't think the good pizza joint (sit down) I go to is going to be able to deliver pizza at $14/pie with coupon while maintaining their quality of ingredients and process.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#65

Post by eli_gottlieb »

a_imho wrote: post #56
exergy wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps it's the fact that I'm inexorably falling deeper into academia every year, but government research is definitely NOT a waste from my perspective. Some of the best PhD students, working on some of the most interesting projects in my experience all had DOE or EPA grant projects. I think this sort of research deserves a lot more money since, in my (biased) opinion, it pushes humanity forward through public acces…

I think it is meant as not cost effective, as governments are usually very wasteful in redistributing resources.

Wasteful compared to what? I mean, what does your normative budget look like for an R&D project?

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#66

Post by david927 »

edblarney wrote: post #42
david927 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost of delivery You argue that as if it's a constant -- and that it's not is the point. The exact innovation they are stumbling on is a way to lower that cost to near zero . Drone technology will eventually happen. The question is how far out it is. And make no mistake, when it does happen, it will truly be a revolution (without the hyperbole).

Flying drones for delivery are a long, long ways off. + Power/Range - drones can't fly very far + Load - they can't carry a lot + Landing - in urban areas - there are few places to land + Securing content - You can't just leave a box on the front lawn in many cases + Safety - flying a lot of drones result in failures, we can't have drones falling out of the sky. They also pose other hazards. So many issues with drone…

+ Power/Range - you can use relays, + Load - they only need to take small individual items; many items means many drones, + Landing - an edge case, + Securing content - Leaving a box on the front porch is exactly what happens now in most cases; but in this case you would know exactly when it will be delivered and can schedule it for when you're home and be notified the instant it arrives on your doorstep which is much better, + Safety - drones falling from the sky are not the hazard that cars already are.

I think you're right that 'self-driving delivery vehicles' might happen first, but I honestly think that drones will follow, and the cost of delivery from solar-power-recharged inexpensive drones is going to go to near zero. The question was, why is there investment in this when it delivery has failed in the past, and the answer, whether it's drones or self-driving vehicles is that once inexpensive delivery options are possible, in general, it will change everything.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#67

Post by edblarney »

david927 wrote: post #66
edblarney wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Flying drones for delivery are a long, long ways off. + Power/Range - drones can't fly very far + Load - they can't carry a lot + Landing - in urban areas - there are few places to land + Securing content - You can't just leave a box on the front lawn in many cases + Safety - flying a lot of drones result in failures, we can't have drones falling out of the sky. They also pose other hazards. So many issues with drone…

+ Power/Range - you can use relays, + Load - they only need to take small individual items; many items means many drones, + Landing - an edge case, + Securing content - Leaving a box on the front porch is exactly what happens now in most cases; but in this case you would know exactly when it will be delivered and can schedule it for when you're home and be notified the instant it arrives on your doorstep which is muc…

" cost of delivery from solar-power-recharged inexpensive drones is going to go to near zero"

Solar electricity is much more expensive than electricity from other sources, more importantly, 'fuel' a very minor issue in the 'total cost of delivery'.

The 'cost' will be in so many other things, first off - having inventory within a 'drone flight' away from people.

I actually don't believe that drones will ever fly stuff to our door.

It will always be more expensive to delivery stuff 'by flying drone' - and 'very quickly'. See: prices for airmail vs. snail mail.

So what do consumers really need that they can't drive to the store for? Toothpaste? Books? Toilet paper? No. That won't be cost effective.

If someone 'really needs something now' - the 'cost effective' way to do it is to walk or drive down the street to the store.

Delf-driving trucks, with 'robot arms' to nicely 'drop stuff off' for the rest.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#68

Post by sliken »

solatic wrote: post #43

Specifically about Google's Project X delivery drone project: The first guy to head the project was one Nicholas Roy, an MIT Robotics professor whose professional claim to the position seems to be mentoring a pair of students who succeeded in building a drone that flew around a parking garage - predetermined layout, no weather. Completely out of his depth, he failed. After he failed, Google hired Dave Vos, another gu…

Drones don't need huge runways. I suspect a rooftop would be fine.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#69

Post by rak00n »

digi_owl wrote: post #15
KKKKkkkk1 wrote: post #8

The fact that companies like Facebook and Google are spending billions of dollars/year on undisclosed research projects is in my view a gigantic failure of corporate governance. I think investors are going to be hugely disappointed when they find out that they thought they put their money into Internet advertising cash cows, and now that money is gone, spent on building jetpacks and space elevators. I do think those…

Then what is? Seems to me to be very similar to the glory days of PARC and such where they seemed to have the funds to research just about anything. Lets not forget that Xerox brought the world the GUI, laser printer and Ethernet by funding PARC, even if they in the end was not who ended up monetizing the tech (laser printer excluded).

Or Unix from AT&T.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#70

Post by [deleted] »

nickpsecurity wrote: post #45
solatic wrote: post #43

Specifically about Google's Project X delivery drone project: The first guy to head the project was one Nicholas Roy, an MIT Robotics professor whose professional claim to the position seems to be mentoring a pair of students who succeeded in building a drone that flew around a parking garage - predetermined layout, no weather. Completely out of his depth, he failed. After he failed, Google hired Dave Vos, another gu…

"The best course of action that Alphabet has is to acquire a proven aerospace company" It's a good long-term bet if it's a defense contractor that's been getting contracts for decades. Could hedge a bit against what the market might hit them with. Plus, they're trying to get tighter with government anyway. They'd likely acquire people good at doing that, too. Then start brining their tech or services in defense indus…

[deleted]
Post reply on HN