Live data from Hacker News

Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

wsj.com

41–50 of 73 posts

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#41
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but fuel isn't free, vehicles are not free (shrinkage isn't free). Margins on these goods is very poor (1% [1] makes or breaks an outfit). Now, let's say you're right, they want to get the technology right and want to drive prices down like FedEx did back in the '70s for overnight deliveries. Why not start with high value items --items where cost of delivery is a small fraction of the value of the good. Like Fed…

To deliver something in an hour, you have to be storing it very close to where you are going to deliver it. With low value items, it is practical to do that. With high value items, the cost of doing that would be prohibitive.

So, for many of these items Google does not have Google warehouses full of the things. They can partner with high value item sellers like they do with these low value items. They are not incurring the costs of warehousing and parked money.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#42
post #14

I still don't get the foray into delivery of physical low value products. The cost of delivery is a sufficient portion of the total value of the products so as to make it economically impractical for most cases. And we have the example of Peapod and WebVan which didn't just foretell but proved unless it was for specialized markets, it's a proposal for hemorrhaging money. Even if you get automation and you perfect the…

The cost of delivery You argue that as if it's a constant -- and that it's not is the point. The exact innovation they are stumbling on is a way to lower that cost to near zero . Drone technology will eventually happen. The question is how far out it is. And make no mistake, when it does happen, it will truly be a revolution (without the hyperbole).

Flying drones for delivery are a long, long ways off.

+ Power/Range - drones can't fly very far + Load - they can't carry a lot + Landing - in urban areas - there are few places to land + Securing content - You can't just leave a box on the front lawn in many cases + Safety - flying a lot of drones result in failures, we can't have drones falling out of the sky. They also pose other hazards.

So many issues with drones.

I suggest that 'self driving delivery vehicles' will happen long before drones, and when they do, the added cost of 'drone' simply won't be worth it for most purchases.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#43
Specifically about Google's Project X delivery drone project:

The first guy to head the project was one Nicholas Roy, an MIT Robotics professor whose professional claim to the position seems to be mentoring a pair of students who succeeded in building a drone that flew around a parking garage - predetermined layout, no weather. Completely out of his depth, he failed.

After he failed, Google hired Dave Vos, another guy who spent some time in an MIT graduate office - this time one in an aerospace specialty - who spent the last couple of decades in tech management positions. At least he had the experience to come in and say, hey, maybe we need some wind tunnels, maybe we need some professional tooling that's taken for granted in most aerospace companies, because trying to build an aircraft without that tooling is like trying to run a web-facing application off developer workstations instead of setting up a proper production architecture. And he, too, failed.

The real problem that Google (and probably Amazon too) faces is that they need to synergize two very different engineering teams to make delivery drones work. You need aerospace folks to build reliable aircraft, you need AI folks to give those aircraft targets to aim at, and you need them to sit on the same floor in the same building. The aerospace folks aren't going to move to the Valley because there's no aerospace hub in SV, and SV isn't a good place to start one because the necessary land - you know, the wide open spaces you need for runways and hangars - is a pipedream in SV. And the AI folks, you know, the ones the Big Four are paying close to a million dollars in salary and begging not to leave for a competitor - are never going to leave SV to work on delivery drones.

The best course of action that Alphabet has is to acquire a proven aerospace company, give it some great AI folks, and come back in a year to check on their progress. But most of these Project X types like their ivory towers. It's how Google convinced them to join Project X in the first place, selling them on the promise that they'd be in the same ivory tower they were in back in MIT, just with guaranteed funding and a request to think about commercial viability. So, not gonna happen.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#44
post #14

I still don't get the foray into delivery of physical low value products. The cost of delivery is a sufficient portion of the total value of the products so as to make it economically impractical for most cases. And we have the example of Peapod and WebVan which didn't just foretell but proved unless it was for specialized markets, it's a proposal for hemorrhaging money. Even if you get automation and you perfect the…

The biggest part of the cost of delivery on a product is, very often, the human being.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#45
post #43

Specifically about Google's Project X delivery drone project: The first guy to head the project was one Nicholas Roy, an MIT Robotics professor whose professional claim to the position seems to be mentoring a pair of students who succeeded in building a drone that flew around a parking garage - predetermined layout, no weather. Completely out of his depth, he failed. After he failed, Google hired Dave Vos, another gu…

"The best course of action that Alphabet has is to acquire a proven aerospace company"

It's a good long-term bet if it's a defense contractor that's been getting contracts for decades. Could hedge a bit against what the market might hit them with. Plus, they're trying to get tighter with government anyway. They'd likely acquire people good at doing that, too. Then start brining their tech or services in defense industry in general more than now.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#46
post #43

Specifically about Google's Project X delivery drone project: The first guy to head the project was one Nicholas Roy, an MIT Robotics professor whose professional claim to the position seems to be mentoring a pair of students who succeeded in building a drone that flew around a parking garage - predetermined layout, no weather. Completely out of his depth, he failed. After he failed, Google hired Dave Vos, another gu…

> there's no aerospace hub in SV > the wide open spaces you need for runways and hangars

...AMES? I don't know how active it is as an aerospace hub, but it DOES have all that.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#47
I enjoy how the article sometimes seems to have the point of view that this is the first time engineers ever had to work this way. I don't think they are taking software engineers and asking them to create drones. These seem like a lot of the same problems Boeing would have making drones or that UPS would have trying to make deliveries if such drones already existed. Nothing unique to Silicon Valley companies in this respect

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then what is? Seems to me to be very similar to the glory days of PARC and such where they seemed to have the funds to research just about anything. Lets not forget that Xerox brought the world the GUI, laser printer and Ethernet by funding PARC, even if they in the end was not who ended up monetizing the tech (laser printer excluded).

Right, what are the other options? * Government? Would be targeted as waste. (Maybe sneak it into NASA?) * Startup? Would anyone fund it? No short term payout. * Non-profit? * Billionaire's pet project?

Perhaps it's the fact that I'm inexorably falling deeper into academia every year, but government research is definitely NOT a waste from my perspective.

Some of the best PhD students, working on some of the most interesting projects in my experience all had DOE or EPA grant projects. I think this sort of research deserves a lot more money since, in my (biased) opinion, it pushes humanity forward through public access of research in the form of publications, theses, and the strict requirements that data be preserved for future reference.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#49
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost of delivery You argue that as if it's a constant -- and that it's not is the point. The exact innovation they are stumbling on is a way to lower that cost to near zero . Drone technology will eventually happen. The question is how far out it is. And make no mistake, when it does happen, it will truly be a revolution (without the hyperbole).

Yes, but fuel isn't free, vehicles are not free (shrinkage isn't free). Margins on these goods is very poor (1% [1] makes or breaks an outfit). Now, let's say you're right, they want to get the technology right and want to drive prices down like FedEx did back in the '70s for overnight deliveries. Why not start with high value items --items where cost of delivery is a small fraction of the value of the good. Like Fed…

If the drone is a lower-cost delivery mechanism, then it has the greatest impact on low-margin items. Tablets can afford FedEx. Lettuce can't.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#50
post #44
post #14

I still don't get the foray into delivery of physical low value products. The cost of delivery is a sufficient portion of the total value of the products so as to make it economically impractical for most cases. And we have the example of Peapod and WebVan which didn't just foretell but proved unless it was for specialized markets, it's a proposal for hemorrhaging money. Even if you get automation and you perfect the…

The biggest part of the cost of delivery on a product is, very often, the human being.

Is it? That's true of taxis, but the scale is pretty different for package deliveries, where you have a single driver conveying a LOT of different packages at once.
Post reply on HN