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Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

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Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#31

Post by inputcoffee »

mc32 wrote: post #14

I still don't get the foray into delivery of physical low value products. The cost of delivery is a sufficient portion of the total value of the products so as to make it economically impractical for most cases. And we have the example of Peapod and WebVan which didn't just foretell but proved unless it was for specialized markets, it's a proposal for hemorrhaging money. Even if you get automation and you perfect the…

"I still don't get the foray into delivery of physical low value products. The cost of delivery is a sufficient portion of the total value of the products so as to make it economically impractical for most cases."

Shouldn't your conclusion be the opposite? If the cost of delivery is a large proportion of the good, then lowering the cost of delivery will have a larger impact on the economics of selling that good.

Peapod and Webvan didn't lower the cost of delivery because the human salary was still a large component of that cost. It might even have increased the cost for convenience.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#32

Post by bbctol »

KKKKkkkk1 wrote: post #8

The fact that companies like Facebook and Google are spending billions of dollars/year on undisclosed research projects is in my view a gigantic failure of corporate governance. I think investors are going to be hugely disappointed when they find out that they thought they put their money into Internet advertising cash cows, and now that money is gone, spent on building jetpacks and space elevators. I do think those…

I think investors realize that they are putting their money into advertising cash cows, and Google investors are pretty satisfied; that money isn't "gone." If anything, it's the talented workers who go to Google for the promise of jetpacks and find themselves writing adwords code.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#33

Post by pinewurst »

digi_owl wrote: post #15
KKKKkkkk1 wrote: post #8

The fact that companies like Facebook and Google are spending billions of dollars/year on undisclosed research projects is in my view a gigantic failure of corporate governance. I think investors are going to be hugely disappointed when they find out that they thought they put their money into Internet advertising cash cows, and now that money is gone, spent on building jetpacks and space elevators. I do think those…

Then what is? Seems to me to be very similar to the glory days of PARC and such where they seemed to have the funds to research just about anything. Lets not forget that Xerox brought the world the GUI, laser printer and Ethernet by funding PARC, even if they in the end was not who ended up monetizing the tech (laser printer excluded).

I don't think that's a good comparison. PARC efforts could at least be justified as being document related, which was solidly in sync with Xerox strategy. This "moonshot" stuff can't be classified as pure research as per Bell Labs/IBM Research or corporate goal focused. It's only a failed attempt to prove the capability propaganda that they communicate to the world.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#34

Post by mc32 »

david927 wrote: post #28
mc32 wrote: post #14

I still don't get the foray into delivery of physical low value products. The cost of delivery is a sufficient portion of the total value of the products so as to make it economically impractical for most cases. And we have the example of Peapod and WebVan which didn't just foretell but proved unless it was for specialized markets, it's a proposal for hemorrhaging money. Even if you get automation and you perfect the…

The cost of delivery You argue that as if it's a constant -- and that it's not is the point. The exact innovation they are stumbling on is a way to lower that cost to near zero . Drone technology will eventually happen. The question is how far out it is. And make no mistake, when it does happen, it will truly be a revolution (without the hyperbole).

Yes, but fuel isn't free, vehicles are not free (shrinkage isn't free). Margins on these goods is very poor (1% [1] makes or breaks an outfit). Now, let's say you're right, they want to get the technology right and want to drive prices down like FedEx did back in the '70s for overnight deliveries.

Why not start with high value items --items where cost of delivery is a small fraction of the value of the good. Like FedEx did? Why go after groceries and perishables? It's an odd choice.

This is akin to Musk choosing Titan over Mars to explore the feasibility of interplanetary colonization by people.

[1]http://smallbusiness.chron.com/industry-standard-gross-margi...

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#35

Post by UK-AL »

mc32 wrote: post #14

I still don't get the foray into delivery of physical low value products. The cost of delivery is a sufficient portion of the total value of the products so as to make it economically impractical for most cases. And we have the example of Peapod and WebVan which didn't just foretell but proved unless it was for specialized markets, it's a proposal for hemorrhaging money. Even if you get automation and you perfect the…

The whole point is to lower the cost.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#36

Post by mmmurf »

The world of the future is software. We're on the slow and exciting path of better and better digital representations of reality... everything from cheap orientation sensors to ADCs that were in the realm of science fiction a few years ago.

The same is gradually happening with things like batteries, motors, etc. Everything is becoming more standardized and more like software.

The current limitations have to do with both physics and engineering, and also software reliability, but those barriers are all receding. Solar Cell roof shingles are an idea likely had by many kindergarteners, but the genius has to do with making a longer-term bet and creating the financing to make it into a viable business in a world that rewards short-term results.

The important thing is that a Billionaire today can make a bigger impact than a superpower government could a decade ago. The glorification of the bygone era of massive infrastructure investment voiced by Thiel at the GOP convention can be alternately viewed as a wish that we had more Musks taking big gambles and a general cynicism about the tech elite who develop cults of personality after a single, largely luck-driven, often low-tech home run.

The Interstate highway system was a buildout that could happen because of the solving of coordination problems that had prevented escape from a local maximum. As governments lose relevance, it is up to the Musks of the world to usher in both the technological vision and the social coordination solutions.

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#37

Post by diggan »

hueving wrote: post #25
diggan wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - Paste the URL into the address bar / omnibox. Many websites seems to keep track of you with a combination of cookies and IP. But many also allow you through if you come from Google, so replace this step with "Paste URL into Google search, then click first result" and it should work.

incognito doesn't include cookies from your regular sessions

Sure, my point being that you should search for the URL, not just go to it without cookies. So your refer header is set to be from Google

Re: Silicon Valley Stumbles in World Beyond Software

#39

Post by TheCoelacanth »

mc32 wrote: post #34
david927 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost of delivery You argue that as if it's a constant -- and that it's not is the point. The exact innovation they are stumbling on is a way to lower that cost to near zero . Drone technology will eventually happen. The question is how far out it is. And make no mistake, when it does happen, it will truly be a revolution (without the hyperbole).

Yes, but fuel isn't free, vehicles are not free (shrinkage isn't free). Margins on these goods is very poor (1% [1] makes or breaks an outfit). Now, let's say you're right, they want to get the technology right and want to drive prices down like FedEx did back in the '70s for overnight deliveries. Why not start with high value items --items where cost of delivery is a small fraction of the value of the good. Like Fed…

To deliver something in an hour, you have to be storing it very close to where you are going to deliver it. With low value items, it is practical to do that. With high value items, the cost of doing that would be prohibitive.
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